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January 28th-29th Ice Threat

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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 26, 2013 4:40 pm

A warm front will be approaching the region during the day Monday along with an area of low pressure. This will result in a burst of precipitation that will be cold enough at the begining of the storm to start as snow and then gradually change to sleet/freezing rain and then rain as we head into Monday Night. The concern is during that Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain period that will occur during Monday Afternoon will cause some slick travel and light ice accretions. We will use this thread to track this event.


Last edited by Mets2695 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 26, 2013 4:57 pm

Upton for my area

Monday : A chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet between noon and 3pm, then rain and snow likely after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Light south wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 26, 2013 5:09 pm

Many thanks to Alex for starting the thread. I'm very busy. So if there is a thread you feel needs to be started, please don't hesitate to do so.

As for Monday, morning commute could be a rough one. EURO showed several hours of freezing rain that morning.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:19 am

Upton



Monday Snow likely before 2pm, then rain, snow, and sleet. High near 37. Light southwest wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Monday Night Rain, snow, and sleet, becoming all rain after 7pm. Low around 36. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:47 pm

Current Surface Temps: http://www.greencastonline.com/tools/soiltempmaps.aspx

NYC and Especially LI have a surface temp of 10-15 right now. Your telling me that they are going to warm above freezing tmw with a temp of only 35 quick enough to not allow ice and therefore not issue a WWA NWS? Ur gonna be sadly mistaking tmw.
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Post by HeresL Sun Jan 27, 2013 7:15 pm

Upton has posted a WWA for my area....

Western Passaic
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10AM EST MON until 6PM EST MON

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST  MONDAY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER  ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX

WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6  PM EST MONDAY.  
LOCATIONS

PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY OUTSIDE OF THE NEW  YORK CITY METRO AREA.  
HAZARD TYPES

A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED

WITH A SNOW AND SLEET  EARLY IN THE DAY

BECOMING FREEZING RAIN FOR A PERIOD TOMORROW  AFTERNOON.  
ACCUMULATIONS

SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN HALF AN INCH

ALONG  WITH A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.  
WINDS

SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
TEMPERATURES

IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  
TIMING

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW LATE TOMORROW  MORNING

MIXING WITH SLEET AROUND MIDDAY. A TRANSITION TO  FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON

WITH  THE PRECIPITATION BECOMING ALL RAIN BY TOMORROW EVENING.  
IMPACTS

SNOW EARLY IN THE DAY MAY MAKE FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS  ON THE ROADWAYS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON TOP  OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS CONDITIONS

ESPECIALLY  ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

SLEET

OR  FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR  SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES

AND USE CAUTION WHILE  DRIVING.  
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:21 pm

Wow the radar is impressive. This could get crazy in the morning.
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:23 pm

I need an early release from school tmw Frank!!!!!!
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:46 pm

I hear you - I definitely believe that the school officials (like my school in Allendale BC) will have the presence to send everyone home early - you still count it as a day of school and move on. Ice is the scary part of this and it seems we will have a small but decent accreation - 1 to 2/10's is what they are saying. Very Happy
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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:06 pm

The radar looks really nice. Nam has snow to sleet to rain for the NYC area with temps near freezing throughout the event with more wintry precip to the north.
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:07 pm

WOW THIS IS FOR 1PM TMW!!!
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/from_jet/rap_jet/2013012801/t3/ptyp_t3sfc_f17.png
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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:10 pm

Rgem shows snow to ice to rain for NYC

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:53 pm

31 degrees with a dew point of 10.
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:13 pm

18 on LI and dp of 9
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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:54 am

Latest HRRR

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013012808/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f13.png
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Post by Snow88 Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:15 am

Light snow just started here in Brooklyn.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:53 am

Snowing lightly in Newark, NJ as well.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jan 28, 2013 5:32 pm

started as snow, mixing at about noon, rain and sleet this afternoon, ground is getting slick in spots. I am at 32.6* now...have .17" of precip so far
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