Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

NAM came in a bit better on its last run..

I supposed I've got to post here temporarily about the 9th-10th storm. The 18z NAM trended juicier with the clipper.

12z

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html

18z

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html

Supporting my idea of "creeping" towards a better solution.

WOLVES1 wrote: Does anyone know what the euro looked like?

12z EURO (southern storm)



12z EURO (clipper (northern storm))



A couple frames of snow like this, verbatim 1-3"

Thank you.

Southern storm is sooooo OTS. I'm concerned about the Euro showing that.

Mt. Holly totals for Sunday

from mt holly AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, A SECOND SHORT WAVE ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE GFS/NAM/SREF/CANADIAN
INDICATE MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, WHILE THE
ECMWF/UKMET PRODUCE LESS. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE AFFECTED THE MOST
BY THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD WHERE WE WOULD EXPECT
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH AS WE`VE HAD WITH THE PAST FEW STORMS. WE ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND 2-4 INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES, WITH 1-2 POSSIBLE FOR OUR CENTRAL TIER, AND AROUND IN INCH
OR LESS FOR OUR SOUTHERN HALF.

this seems to be the NS s/w

Mets2695 wrote:Mt. Holly totals for Sunday

I'll take that 2 to 4.Should be easy to shovel.

this is all upton is saying right now

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
535 PM EST WED FEB 05 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND...

ALTHOUGH FORECAST MODELS SHOW A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS
WEEKEND...THEY DO NOT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE COASTAL STORM
THAT WOULD BRING HIGH IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FORECASTING A ...CHANCE... OF SNOW
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AT:

so I guess its just going to be an inch or two down my way

I'm looking for a good primer on meteorology. I'm trying to teach myself some of the basics and I've found most websites assume you have a basic knowledge. As my daughters say, You love weather and weather events". I would like to follow along better than I do now. Any suggestions are appreciated.

Taffy wrote:I'm looking for a good primer on meteorology. I'm trying to teach myself some of the basics and I've found most websites assume you have a basic knowledge. As my daughters say, You love weather and weather events".  I would like to follow along better than I do now. Any suggestions are appreciated.

Taffy, try this for starters....

http://theweatherwiz.com/school.htm

Upton says nothing on its maps, where did you find a snow map for mt. holly more than 48 hours out?

Taffy, try this for starters....

http://theweatherwiz.com/school.htm



Thank you Janet. This looks like a great program. I appreciate it.

There is a complex ULL just now coming ashore along the Pacific Northwest coast. It has several shortwaves embedded in its rotation. The models sends several of these waves eastward, one after another. Right now most guidance sharpens the first in the series. But a few of the GEFS and SREF members key on another wave right on the heels of the first - and develop a moderate impact coastal low. I think this follow up wave bears watching. It would be more like a Sun. night into Mon timeframe. This wave is in a better position to amplify with respect the longwave trof axis. And it's possible the ULL coming ashore might cause some model changes. I've seen numerous cases where models alternatively amplified one wave and then suddenly another, when they were in close proximity. Potential exist and like I said earlier the SREFS Would get my MJO ( no pun intended here) flowing!! I am anticipating the 00Z runs tonight! Would it be frickin kick in the arse if we get a moderate coastal that would shock most pro mets. I read the pages of discussion and no no this is above board!! Ha ha ha! Took my break like I said last night and ready to roll if need be.

can anyone let me know what time the models run so i can write it down and make sure to check back at those times?

pdubz wrote:can anyone let me know what time the models run so i can write it down and make sure to check back at those times?

NAM initializes around 8:45
GFS initializes 10:25
GGEM is usually(on a good day) in by 11:30-12:00
UKIE between 11:00 and 12:00am
EURO initializes around 12:45am

What happen to this site Is anybody out there?? It all cant be that bad I need some info lol

I think they are looking at models

oldtimer wrote:What happen to this site  Is anybody out there??  It all cant be that bad  I need some info lol

Only the NAM has run. Still OTS and gone with the 9th and has a weak clipper drop c-2 on Sunday with the NS energy. Waiting for GFS.

Thx Ryan

Quietace wrote:

pdubz wrote:can anyone let me know what time the models run so i can write it down and make sure to check back at those times?

NAM initializes around 8:45
GFS initializes 10:25
GGEM is usually(on a good day) in by 11:30-12:00
UKIE between 11:00 and 12:00am
EURO initializes around 12:45am

thank you

The trends have been very ugly for the Sunday system

1. The ridge in the west has remained flat

2. The northern stream energy has been shearing out / elongating itself

3. The southern stream energy has been dying itself out by the time it reaches the east coast

Basically, the pieces we once had to possibly get a sizable storm together are fading away into thin air (literally).

I'm still giving this until 12z model runs tomorrow, but we may have to resort for a minor snowfall event on Sunday. Honestly, I can use the break from shoveling so I don't mind. Lol

Frank will temps be an issue for next weeks storms ?

Artechmetals wrote:Frank will temps be an issue for next weeks storms ?

It ultimately depends on the exact track of the storm. My initial guess is no, besides the immediate coast.

Almost no precip at all on the GFS for this system.

Quietace wrote:Almost no precip at all on the GFS for this system.

Demoralizing.