February 12th-14th Storm Potential

I am getting really concerned that the media is downplaying this....especially for NNJ. I hope people just decide to stay home...

OK OK Frank Thx

thanks Frank! appreciate your response a few pages back

Myrtle Beach, SC

Wow thats some ice, very busy today but a few questions for frank or anyone. Since the models are basically not doing to great totals will be hard to predict. Frank wehen you sday north of NYC how far noth? Will I be in the changeover or may I be safe to the best guestimate? Also is it at all possible these models are downplaying the snow totals? Since the mets seem to be playing it safe (which I get but may be cut opeople off guard) maybe this may happen? Nowcasting starts tonight! Wondering what I will do tomorrow morning, I can't take two days off so which morning and afternoon will be better?

So for me here not that bad then?

Wow thats some ice, very busy today but a few questions for frank or anyone. Since the models are basically not doing to great totals will be hard to predict. Frank wehen you sday north of NYC how far noth? Will I be in the changeover or may I be safe to the best guestimate? Also is it at all possible these models are downplaying the snow totals? Since the mets seem to be playing it safe (which I get but may be cut opeople off guard) maybe this may happen? Nowcasting starts tonight! Wondering what I will do tomorrow morning, I can't take two days off so which morning and afternoon will be better?

Sorry for some reason that posted twice.

JMAN:

Some models have me changing to sleet for awhile and I'm 45 miles north of midtown.

Since you're just 5 miles north of the NYC border it's highly unlikely you will stay all snow, at least as it stands now.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow thats some ice, very busy today but a few questions for frank or anyone.  Since the models are basically not doing to great totals will be hard to predict.  Frank wehen you sday north of NYC how far noth?  Will I be in the changeover or may I be safe to the best guestimate? Also is it at all possible these models are downplaying the snow totals? Since the mets seem to be playing it safe (which I get but may be cut opeople off guard) maybe this may happen?  Nowcasting starts tonight!  Wondering what I will do tomorrow morning, I can't take two days off so which morning and afternoon will be better?

are you driving or taking mass transit? Honestly, I don't think anyone should be going anywhere tomorrow. I know it is hard to make a decision when you might have to take a day off, you might be able to get in a half day early tomorrow, and then go in late Friday for another half day...just my opinion, I say be safe and don't put yourself in a positiion where you are going to get stuck somewhere...

I am in eatontown, maybe 3 miles from the coast in central monmouth county. I have to drive to east brunswick. Central morris county for work tomorrow from 11-7 also have a staff to worry about. Whats it looking like here?

over/under tonight or early Thursday morning for Christie's state of emergency? i'm not talking snow it will be because the stores will be sold out of everything especially his twinkies

RJB8525 wrote:over/under tonight or early Thursday morning for Christie's state of emergency? i'm not talking snow it will be because the stores will be sold out of everything especially his twinkies

That's a good one RJB. LOL !

1/26 was the last big storm out my way. 20" of snow and heavy sleet/graupel whiteout to snow with 0 visibility after it changed over.

Ok thanks, more like 15 miles north of city, 10 miles from Bronx, but we kind of in a sheltered area that always seems to be colder so we will see. Its ok either way, it will be something wither way. Still alot of snow even if it rains especially if that dry slot opens during the warming.

So, does anyone think a winter storm WARNING will be issued by the NWS for Nassau and Suffolk by their 4 PM update?

Does anyone know what the winds will be like out in Western NJ. and Eastern PA ?

Sono one wants to give me a forecast lol

snowman frank said around two he will post snow map and discuss wind. From what I have heard winds could get pretty darn gusty, especially of course near coast.

Guys go to nynjpaweather.com, Steve D has been nearly spot on for this winter and really like his call for this one. Will make a map of my own tonight but prelim I like his thinking ATM.

skins its so difficult at this pt. I m nowhere nears smart about all this as the other guys but its honestly looking more and more like a nowcast.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Sono one wants to give me a forecast lol

I'm no expert skins, but the central New Jersey coast will have a very tough time getting much snow fromthis. Especially with some of these tracks only 20 to 30 miles offshore, I'd say if you got 6 inches of snow would be your top number. 3 to 6 in total would probably be a good number deleted there's going to be rein in between that. You guys havedone well this year. I seriously doubt this is your storm though for a big snowfall.

that site by Steve has me on the very cusp of either a change over anmd 5-10 or in the 12-14+, probably not that much but we will see. and 0.1-0.25 ice, thought we didnt have to deal with fzr?

Thanks Jman.

Math For what Ive seen LI will get a Winter Weather Advisory That's it

Bill Evans has a total crap storm for the coast much of NYC all rain by 10am till sunset he says but yet still 6-10 and half of s.i in 3-6

New thread. New snow map.