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03/12 Obs. Thread, Possible T-storms

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 11, 2014 3:37 pm

It looks like our luck this winter has come to an end around late February, when the Polar Vortex was so far south it sent a possible snowstorm for us all the way down into Virginia just 24 hours before impact. This time around, the PV is too far north and the lack of blocking is going to allow tomorrow's system to track over us, resulting in warmer air surge and precipitation falling as rain.

SPC:

03/12 Obs. Thread, Possible T-storms Day2otlk_1730

Storm prediction center has us in a slight risk for possible t-storms in the afternoon tomorrow when a squall line develops over PA. Damaging winds, hail, and flooding rains will be the biggest threats with thunder / lightning.

Wind:

Winds could gust over 50 mph Wednesday night or early Thursday morning as this storm deepens to our north and winds turn out of the northwest. Sustained winds tomorrow expected to be in the 15-25 mph range.

Rain:

Not as much as you may think. We will see a heavy batch in the morning then go into a dry slot until the possible squall line approaches the area. Probably .50-.75 inches of rain, with 1.00+ possible IF you get into a thunderstorm that brings heavy rain.

Snow:

Backend snow looks unlikely, but do not be surprised to wake up Thursday morning to a coating, especially areas furthest north and west of NYC.

Temps:

Temps. tomorrow will be in the 50's but will take a nose dive into the 20's and teens by Thursday morning once the storm pulls in the cold air all the way to the coast. Temps. will remain in the 30's and 40's for the rest of the week.


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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:03 pm

Frank, that's not a risk for T-storms it's for severe weather specifically tornadic threat. Where they have the green is where they expect T-storms and where they have the yellow is highest probability of severe/tornado.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:57 pm

LOL, RAP shows C and central S NJ reaching the 70s tomorrow.

03/12 Obs. Thread, Possible T-storms 3_11ra10
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:10 pm

Cloudy and mild while areas to our north are getting a Godzilla.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:24 pm

CMC

03/12 Obs. Thread, Possible T-storms 3_12cm11
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Post by docstox12 Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:24 pm

Skies darkening.Radar looks like rain about to come in by me.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 12, 2014 3:31 pm

38.1 here right now and no precip yet.
Looks like warm air at the surface is not making it up to the HV today.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:33 pm

After topping out at 43.3, down to 36.5 here with light rain, didn't expect to be this cold this early.

Keeping fingers crossed.
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Post by aiannone Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:44 pm

Hit a high of 59 today, now down to 50 here on LI
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Post by Quietace Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:49 pm

Nice steady spring rain and 53 here.

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:52 pm

light rain and 49*

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Post by aiannone Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:53 pm

Rain just started here. Temp down to 49. Didn't think it would start dropping already.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:56 pm

I'm 36.0 now with moderate rain. Temperature not what I expected, especially this early.
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Post by aiannone Wed Mar 12, 2014 5:07 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued....
03/12 Obs. Thread, Possible T-storms 16559110
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 12, 2014 5:11 pm

I'm down to 35.4 now which doesn't make much sense. There doesn't seem to be any real cold air to my west for 100 miles, yet I've dropped 8 degrees since early afternoon.
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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Mar 12, 2014 5:36 pm

Had a high of 46* and now it's down to 40* with cloudy skies. I've only had .21" of rain so far. At least it didn't pour all day and melt what's left of my snow pack. This makes me feel a little better. OOHH ! I better write that down so I can tell my snow therapist next week. Maybe there is still hope for me after all. lol !
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Post by docstox12 Wed Mar 12, 2014 5:42 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:Had a high of 46* and now it's down to 40* with cloudy skies. I've only had .21" of rain so far. At least it didn't pour all day and melt what's left of my snow pack. This makes me feel a little better. OOHH ! I better write that down so I can tell my snow therapist next week. Maybe there is still hope for me after all. lol !

I can see the sign on your therapist's front yard...

"Dr. Hugo Dendrite...12 step program specialist for snowcaholics"!
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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Mar 12, 2014 6:07 pm

Love it Doc. LOL !
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 12, 2014 6:23 pm

Temp still 58 here, snow all gone for the past few days. .04" of rain thus far.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Mar 12, 2014 6:24 pm

Squalls don't look impressive in PA as the SR models progged them, thinking most thunderstorms stay south and we just get boring windy rain.
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Post by devsman Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:23 pm

Did the radar just fall apart completely for all of the northeast? All the rain for us and snow for the north seems to have vanished. Was that forecast?
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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:32 pm

Down to 27* with N/NW wind gusting up to 25mph. Everything is freezing up already.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:46 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:Had a high of 46* and now it's down to 40* with cloudy skies. I've only had .21" of rain so far. At least it didn't pour all day and melt what's left of my snow pack. This makes me feel a little better. OOHH ! I better write that down so I can tell my snow therapist next week. Maybe there is still hope for me after all. lol !

Snow Man if neither of the storms come through next week I will need your snow therapists number. Maybe PM it to me just in case.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Wed Mar 12, 2014 10:20 pm

28.2. Everything froze. Sleeting now

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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Mar 12, 2014 10:24 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:Had a high of 46* and now it's down to 40* with cloudy skies. I've only had .21" of rain so far. At least it didn't pour all day and melt what's left of my snow pack. This makes me feel a little better. OOHH ! I better write that down so I can tell my snow therapist next week. Maybe there is still hope for me after all. lol !

Snow Man if neither of the storms come through next week I will need your snow therapists number. Maybe PM it to me just in case.

Will do or maybe we could get Doc to sponsor us and we could go to Dr. Hugo Dendrite and go through his 12 step program for snowaholics.
You decide. drunken 
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