Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[algae888]

cmc has several waves of lp for Monday. 1st wave may produce snow before getting warmer for next two.







still a ways to go with this one.

[aiannone]

That is perfect for me lol

[amugs]

We are in Lynondville, VT. You can see it on this map:

Wow you are next to the ST Lawrence River Valley for Pete's sake - okay coastal hugger gives you the goods kid - you have to check with the townies, lifers up there for that info they would know best.

Just like the ol' salt from Franklin NY said to me in August - gonna be a bad winter - cold and snowy - sum biago he may be my new winter forecaster if he calls it - name is Ted!

[aiannone]

haha Yupp we get about 125" of snow a year! Euro looks like it's coming in with an inland event

[algae888]

many of the gfs ensembles are similar to cmc except colder...

[aiannone]

12z Euro gives me a good hit!

[jmanley32]

Al what did cmc show any chance for us to see snow with next system. And what did it show tonight. Am mobile now

[jmanley32]

Wow u got euro already 12z? What it show down here?

[amugs]

many of the gfs ensembles are similar to cmc except colder...

This is great at this time and again if the Northern Stream can somehow out race the southern stream by a few hours like 6 then we have a snow storm IMO - ingredients are there. Timing as we all know is crucial. The colder trend is good start and let's hope with the next few runs we see it stay the course

[jmanley32]

Mugs, it is ever so close and 6 hrs really isn't that muich, needless to say snow or rain it looks like the winds will be howling with this one. It really does not need to change a lot. And I think this latest trend which started a bit yesterday is a good sign. Its also felt colder than progged, felt like temp dropped today actually.

[NjWeatherGuy]

This is one of the storms where the R/S line sets up is pretty much where it will stay.. Right now the boundary is progged to set up too far north for the I-95 corridor, right now I like a cold rain possibly ending in non accumulating snow forecast.

[sroc4]

This is one of the storms where the R/S line sets up is pretty much where it will stay.. Right now the boundary is progged to set up too far north for the I-95 corridor, right now I like a cold rain possibly ending in non accumulating snow forecast.

agreed

[aiannone]

My issue is QPF. Already down to 34.8* here and it is currently dry. Evap. cooling will get me below freezing without a problem, but how much QPF i get is the issue. I'm hoping for an inch, but thats going to be a stretch.

[amugs]

18zGFS on its own here but moves that r/ s line south and east is it a trend or a friggin blip by the GooFuS??

[algae888]

the eastward trend continues on18z gfs


surface

850's

looks like storm comes in waves. does any one agree?

[amugs]

Trending colder as Al pointed out on the ensembles this afternoon.

[algae888]

mugs while I don't believe Mondays storm will be a big one I still believe we can see some snow. right now I would favor inland sections but watch ace and skins end up with more than any one.lol also in regards to the euro snow map. remember last march when 3 days out we where getting crazy snow totals on models only to watch it drop to North Carolina. so euro snow map just has to move about 100 miles south. then bingo!!!

[skinsfan1177]

This is good for me maybe we got a chance

[jmanley32]

Are we still doing a thread on it? Could still b a stron storm euro has high winds and some people inland may see snow. And I'm not ruling out some possible snow. I ask because it's not long range anymore.

[jmanley32]

Al looks could be good for us too just not to far east still has time get back west. The cold staying south is great.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Shifted to the east as the 18z GFS showed pushes that boundary layer I was talking about further to the south and east, would greatly help our chances. Would like to see other models specifically every other model to get on board and one run is not really a trend as we know. If the CMC and EURO show shifts to the east in the coming runs it could help our chances but as of now with only the 18z GFS on board I'm inclined to believe it's a hiccup run.

[jmanley32]

Wow Euro long range keeps pumping storm after storm out of texas and up EC, around 8 day south offshore and then headed this way day 10. This seems a real good sign for coming months if it keeps up. I think the blockbuster winter with a few gods and roids will be this year and not so many smaller storms. Which would be cool, I would love a much bigger storm than the smaller ones they are boring bring on the wind and downpour of snow!

[Snow88]

0z GFS has a nice little snow event for next week. Looks like a possible overrunning event. A lot of cold air around for the precip.

[Frank_Wx]

0z GFS has a nice little snow event for next week. Looks like a possible overrunning event. A lot
of cold air around for the precip.

This time the cold is there but not sure if that storm is just a mirage right now. It's all about that piece of s/w energy digging into the SW CONUS.

[Snow88]

Para doesn't look bad for next weekend

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

Rain and snow

[algae888]

if your cold now tues is going to be brutal.



gfs keeps the cold...into following week

[Snow88]

Warmup was muted on the GFS

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