Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[amugs]

Well the step down process is being shown once again- GEFS!  

My prediction wintry precip to come area wide Dec 17 - 20 th timeframe sooner than what some might expect by thee maps!
We shall see

[Frank_Wx]

I plan on making a blog this weekend to update the long range



BUT, I really like the look of the 12z Euro Ens today. GOA trough pushing back over the Aleutians. Clear -EPO/+PNA pattern trying to come together by X-mas

[nutleyblizzard]

I plan on making a blog this weekend to update the long range



BUT, I really like the look of the 12z Euro Ens today. GOA trough pushing back over the Aleutians. Clear -EPO/+PNA pattern trying to come together by X-mas

Looking forward to reading your blog frank. As recently as a week ago I was concerned about our pattern change in jeopardy with the models showing a torch across much of the continental U.S. due to that pesky asian low. Good to see that the low is moving out of the way which will induce stratospheric warming. Once that polar vortex splits, the pattern should lock in and then we'll be in business. The only remaining concern is if we can get good blocking with the cold air. That will be one of the more important ultimate drivers with us getting a normal winter or an epic one. With the El Nino causing these recent overperforming coastals, I'm leaning towards an epic winter.

[sroc4]

I plan on making a blog this weekend to update the long range



BUT, I really like the look of the 12z Euro Ens today. GOA trough pushing back over the Aleutians. Clear -EPO/+PNA pattern trying to come together by X-mas

Was planning on doing the same thing tomorrow. GGEM and GFS ens look good as well.

[amugs]

I plan on making a blog this weekend to update the long range



BUT, I really like the look of the 12z Euro Ens today. GOA trough pushing back over the Aleutians. Clear -EPO/+PNA pattern trying to come together by X-mas

Looking forward to reading your blog frank. As recently as a week ago I was concerned about our pattern change in jeopardy with the models showing a torch across much of the continental U.S. due to that pesky asian low. Good to see that the low is moving out of the way which will induce stratospheric warming. Once that polar vortex splits, the pattern should lock in and then we'll be in business. The only remaining concern is if we can get good blocking with the cold air. That will be one of the more important ultimate drivers with us getting a normal winter or an epic one. With the El Nino causing these recent overperforming coastals, I'm leaning towards an epic winter.

[amugs]

The map posted above shows the PV elongating and splitting in this timeframe end of  Dec

[amugs]

Here comes the next rough on the ec said we may see something dur ing this timeframe

[Math23x7]

I plan on making a blog this weekend to update the long range



BUT, I really like the look of the 12z Euro Ens today. GOA trough pushing back over the Aleutians. Clear -EPO/+PNA pattern trying to come together by X-mas

I see the 500 mb heights over northern Quebec and Labrador are much above normal. At a weather conference in 2009, DT mentioned several locations of ridges in the northern latitudes and he said for I-95 corridor, when you see ridging over the aforementioned region, you start doing the snow dance. It sure would be something if this verifies.

[algae888]

I know its a long way out but very active pattern continues for us. week 0f dec. 20- 27th looks promising



hector there is your white xmas...

[algae888]

mjo gfs  and gefs has us headed into the cod. gefs comes out to phase 4 while gfs has us come out into phase 2. read on another board that we have had many a snowstorm with mjo in cod. we shall see

[Snow88]

Long range is looking a lot better on the Euro and GFS with a parade of storms by Christmas.

[Snow88]

Wow at the GFS. Parade of storms.

[amugs]

Here you go Ant - the winter bacon is starting to fry!!

[Frank_Wx]

How many North Pac. cyclones do you see developing over the next 2 days?



If your answer is 3, you are correct. Pretty impressive look and goes to show the flux of our pattern right now in the Pacific.

[sroc4]

There is another threat to monitor similar in set up at H5 to what we just experienced/are experiencing next week in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame.  H5 on that threat looks like it might take the system more to our south, but well have to see how that evolves over the next few days.


All three ensembles Euro, GFS, Canadian, are still trying to advertise the trough around the Aleutions, ridge coming back in the west, and a trough in the east some time after the 22nd-23rrd Dec 23rd +/- 1-2days.  To me that is the time period to watch for the next threat esp for coastal regions as this pattern is much more conducive for a more classic Nor Easter setup.  Its the LR so for now we watch.  
First set of images are     the 00z Ens runs from Dec 8th.  second set was last nights 00z runs.  Remember that these are the ens means meaning that the images are the avg of all the individual members of the model.  This far in the long range you are going to get individual members far to the left and far to the right with their individual solns skewing the means.  As we get closer we will hopefully see all three lock into what the GGEM seems to be advertising the best as of now.  
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The next few frames of the Euro ens run from last night breaks down the ridge in the west again but I believe it is because there ae members that try to move the trough near the Aleutions into the GOA too fast skewing the mean.  Again we are just going to have to watch how this evolves.  Euro operational is hinting at a Miller A type set up at the end of its run.  We watch.

[algae888]

cmc and euro both have a system over the south on op. at 240 hours with cold enough air to make things interesting.....


cmc


euro

interesting that gfs also has it a day later. we shall see

[algae888]

all models at that time frame have a nice 50/50 block which can keep HP locked in over n/ne and all are consistent with a trough in east. one thing that will not happen is the big warm up in the next 10 days that models and mets were advertising.

[sroc4]

all models at that time frame have a nice 50/50 block which can keep HP locked in over n/ne and all are consistent with a trough in east. one thing that will not happen is the big warm up in the next 10 days that models and mets were advertising.

Yeah Al the system I mentioned above for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame looks to set up that 50/50 block.  Its going to be an interesting next two weeks to see it all evolve.  We are going to have to have patience.  
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Regarding the LR warm up advertised on models well... So far the lack thereof has been the theme.  Sure its been milder at times, but nowhere near as advertised in the prev LR runs.  Check out JB's blog from this morning: (keep this in mind when reading my post from above on the Euro ens mean)

ECMWF 15 days ago for this morning

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Actual:

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reaction over the east

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[jmanley32]

LOL sroc, I see that LP coming off coast next week on Euro, pretty strong for a 8 day out system, but it stays south? Will there be something in place that keeps it that far south and OTS or might that have a chance to come up the coast? I would prefer Thursday or after I get home Wednesday night, have final and presentation at school in Harlem on Wednesday next week and last thing I want to be doing is driving there in a snowstorm.

[amugs]

Nice work Doc and Al on the long range - seems to be about every 8 days +/- 1-2 days we are seeing this storms if you go back to late October. Great sign of Nino and going into the start of the winter season

Al- a 50/50 low block would do the trick for a SECS and MECS. Need the - NAO for eh HECS - that will come in January - maybe the anniversary of the great 1996 blizzard.

Now for the bold call here - we see a HECS the first week of January +/- 1 or 2 days - why do I say this well I am going to use the BSR (Bearing Seas Rule) as I did for the Thanksgiving Storm. I know Frank is harping on this time frame as well and here is why from my perspective - here is a storm in the Bearing Sea.




The Bering Sea Rule (BSR) states that weather phenomena occurring in the Bering Sea (typically around Shemya, AK)  correlates to similar weather phenomena here in the US 17-21 days later. Shemya's rough location is in the red circle in the above map and we see this projected storm system just east of that circle.



The NAO and AO are projected to go negative by this time - so let's see what happens
NAO


AO
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[jmanley32]

Ohh come on mugs, now you go have me waiting 20+ days for the possibility of a huge storm lol, lets focus on next weeks potential, at this point a nice 3-6 would be perfect in my book, since we have yet to really see anything lol.

[amugs]

Ohh come on mugs, now you go have me waiting 20+ days for the possibility of a huge storm lol, lets focus on next weeks potential, at this point a  nice 3-6 would be perfect in my book, since we have yet to really see anything lol.

Jman - I am talking SECS if not a both being MECS 6+ area wide not 6" for me and 3" for you HAHAHAHA!!

Teh pattern is a changing and we must be patient to receive the goods my man

[algae888]

you know I've been reading on other boards and even from some mets that our pattern is going to change gradually step by step. but if you think about it we only need to take one step down to get us into a favorable pattern for snow. we have had plenty of storms passing very close to where we need them to be moderately cold weather and a consistent high pressure to our North. we are very close to a nice winter time pattern here for us which can produce snow and a lot of fun tracking it

[jmanley32]

mugs 6+ sounds even better : )

[jmanley32]

Lookie : ) Yeah its way off but this time frame Frank talk about and JB is harping on too, that is beautiful for at least a SECS/MECS.

[amugs]

CMC next week as well - oh boy!!!

[jmanley32]

Just saw that down by FL, who knows where it goes from there though. Looks like what is that a Miller A that comes from the west? Or is that a B?

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