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Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb)

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Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Empty Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb)

Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 29, 2014 6:59 am

Good morning everyone.  I have watched JB do this so I figured let's do it here too.  Below are the Euro, CMC, and GEFS ensemble mean 500mb height anomaly maps showing what they believe the upper air pattern will look like in NA by January 13th.  In addition are the 850mb temp anomaly maps for the same time frame.  For those who do not understand these maps at 500mb the red typically represents ridging and blue trough and the 850mb temp anomaly maps the red indicates warmer than normal temps relative to averages and blue below normal.  Remember these are the ensemble means NOT the operational runs.  That means that there are multiple individual runs(between 25-50 depending on the model) within any given model that get averaged to come up with the mean soln to all the individual members for a given model.    

 As of 00z Dec 29th all three global model ensemble means have a ridge in the eastern CONUS (CONtinental United States) and a trough in the west and warmer than normal 850mb temps.  Less than ideal look for cold and snow along the east coast.  Lets see how this evolves over the next two weeks.  Please refrain from posting maps in here as I will update it myself as we go along. Thanks

Here is our baseline:

Euro:  
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_z512" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_t810" />

CMC:
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gem-en10" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Cmc_t810" />

GEFS:
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gfs-en10" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gefs_t10" />


Last edited by sroc4 on Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:47 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Empty Re: Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb)

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:30 am

Good morning everyone.  Here is the update on my case study.  
Here is what the Euro ens had for Jan 13th 6days ago 500mb

Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_z512" />

And last night
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_z510" />
Euro 850mb temp anomalies 6days ago:
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_t810" />
Euro ens last night:
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_t810" />

CMC Ens same deal:  6 days ago(Dec29th and Jan4th)
500mb height anaomalies
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gem-en10" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gem-en10" />
850mb Temp anomalies
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Cmc_t810" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Cmc_t810" />

And the GFS Ens (GEFS): (Dec29th and Jan 4th)
500mb height anomalies:

Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gfs-en10" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gfs-en10" />
850mb Temp anomalies:
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gefs_t10" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gefs_t10" />


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Empty Re: Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb)

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:36 am

"Remember you can not look at ensembles the same way you look at a single run. The single run is the run.. the ensembles are a blend of many runs"  I stole this line from Joe Bastardi.
 With that in mind even if you don't know what 500mb height anomalies are it should be quite clear that there are major changes on the images from 6 days ago compared to todays images which look very promising for storminess for the latter 1/3rd of Jan.  There are a few very important areas and features I want everyone to key in on.  I am going to use the Euro maps to explain but the GFS Ens, and CMC ens are showing the exact same general evolution to the pattern.  (Scroll back up and notice the GFS Ens are almost identical in all aspects of what I m about to show you.)
First lets look at 500mb:
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Dec_2910" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Jan4th10" />
The key areas to zero in on is the evolution In #1 and #2.  The pattern seems to be evolving into a more intense trough south of the Aleutian islands.  The result of this is to pump the ridge in the western CONUS and Canada.  The trough that is present over the western CONUS on the Dec 29th run(#2 on image above) is all but gone on last nights run and replaced with ridging.  The result of the ridging in the west now has led to the split the focus of increased heights amongst ens members along the East coast (#3). This is NOT a warm look.  
Now lests look at the 850mb Temp anomalies:
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Dec29_10" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Jan4th11" />
Notice we went from below normal temp anomalies in western Canada and NW CONUS(#1) to above normal temp anomalies in 6days.  Huge change don't you think?  This is all a result of the ridging taking shape in the west which is the result of the trough S of the Aleutians.  The result down stream is the intensities of the temp anomalies along the Eastern third of the CONUS are greatly reduced(#2), and the cold pool in Eastern Canada has markedly intensified and expanded south towards the NE CONUS (#3).  

IMHO this will continue to evolve to a much colder soln with one that promotes storminess in the east.  And although in Franks updated winter outlook he doesn't believe the blocking associated with the -NAO is coming anytime soon, I respectfully disagree with that.  I think we see it start to show up sometime after the 20th of Jan and before Feb 1st.  I also believe we have 2-3 real chances at measurable snow chances in the east and a possible major measurable snow chances, esp the 15th-19th time frame before this month is out.  Let me be clear; however, I do think we will get some temp moderation mid month, but it will not be as warm as people think and several real storm chances exist.  This sets me up for case study number two....Jan19th

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:01 am

Great write up Sroc
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:08 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Great write up Sroc

Ditto Skins sentiments!!!!!!!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:39 am

I like this study. Ensembles probably did not catch onto the Aleutian trof in the LR

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 10, 2015 7:00 am

Good morning everyone.  Here is the final update on my case study.  
Here is what the Euro ens had for Jan 13th 12days, 6 days ago, and last night at 500mb

Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_z512" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_z510" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_z512" />
Same for Euro 850mb temp anomalies:
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_t810" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_t810" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_t812" />

CMC Ens same deal:  6 days ago(Dec29th, Jan4th, and Jan10th)
500mb height anaomalies
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gem-en10" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gem-en10" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gem-en12" />
850mb Temp anomalies
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Cmc_t810" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Cmc_t810" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Cmc_t810" />

And the GFS Ens (GEFS): (Dec29th, Jan 4th, Jan10th)
500mb height anomalies:

Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gfs-en10" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gfs-en10" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gfs-en12" />
850mb Temp anomalies:
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gefs_t10" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gefs_t10" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #1 (500mb and 850mb) Gefs_t12" />

So the conclusion is that clearly the LR ensembles have changed quite a bit as we got closer to this time frame most notably regarding the 850mb temp anomalies in the NE and Central plains.  Stay patient friends.  The pattern is evolving for late late Jan and Feb.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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