Re: January 2015 Obs & Discussions

by **SNOW MAN** Thu Jan 29, 2015 8:57 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Back up to an even 0.0.

Long day of work today I'm signing off for the day. I'm not paying attention to any model runs for Monday until tomorrows 12Z as our experts have stated.

Come on, you know your going to peek to see what the models are calling for. Your a snow weenie.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 29, 2015 9:06 am

SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Back up to an even 0.0.

Long day of work today I'm signing off for the day. I'm not paying attention to any model runs for Monday until tomorrows 12Z as our experts have stated.

Come on, you know your going to peek to see what the models are calling for. Your a snow weenie.

No really, I stated at 8:40 that I'm not going on here for the rest of the day and I'm sticking to my word, whoops.

by Guest Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:32 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
algae888 wrote:all you hv guys Westhampton li recorded a low of -6* this morning at 7am. I guess snow pack has a lot to do with it as they have 2' otg out there.

I believe it Al, one of those deep snow pack mornings several years ago I remember one of the Hamptons on LI coming in with a -14 one morning that I was -10.

The long Island Pine barrens region which is located near Ridge, or by Upton is notorious for being 10 degrees or more colder at night than all other LI areas. People have been saying this and scientifically studying it for years. For example I'm on the north shore of LI and was 6 degrees this morning and Westhampton which is on the southern edge of this "cold area" was -6 even though they're 40 miles further east and closer to the ocean. Fascinating stuff.

by **essexcountypete** Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:23 pm

Yeah syo, the NJ pine barrens are like that as well. I believe some of the effect has to do with the sandy soil not holding the daytime heating.

by **amugs** Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:44 pm

Wait until next week talk about cold Tues morning lows Momma Mia cp and doc gfs and euro go - (negative)teens and nnj - (negative)single digits we shall see very cold air mass incoming early next week. With snowpack we may overperform on the lows.

by **oldtimer** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:03 pm

Mugs Another 3-6 on top of what I got and the cold temps would be super Very Happy

by **Dtone** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:19 pm

essexcountypete wrote:Yeah syo, the NJ pine barrens are like that as well. I believe some of the effect has to do with the sandy soil not holding the daytime heating.

the sandy soil both heats up easy and loses heat easy as well. The lack of any urbanization in the pine barrens helps as well. I always found it interesting how cold it can get sometimes despite its coastal location.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:52 pm

amugs wrote:Janet are you wrapping thermometer in ice cubes again??? Or is it in the snow.

You are sitting on heat island mugsy! Wash. Twp. Recorded 4.8° and north Paramus also about 4° sunny

by **algae888** Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:15 pm

WOW!!! look at this forecast
Detailed Forecast

Tonight
Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 29. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Southeast wind around 7 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday
Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. Breezy, with a light west wind becoming northwest 16 to 21 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 10. Wind chill values between -10 and zero. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph.

Saturday
Sunny and cold, with a high near 18. Wind chill values between -10 and zero. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph.

Saturday Night
Increasing clouds, with a low around 12. Northwest wind 6 to 13 mph.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28.

Sunday Night
A chance of snow after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday
A chance of snow. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 14. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night
A chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 2. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday
Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 20.

Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Wednesday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
95-96 anyone...

by **amugs** Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:20 pm

Did you see my post above and in the long range Al nnj looks to be 0 to -5 and nwnj,hand epa negative teens. Watch the bottom drop out from the snowpack!

by **algae888** Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:28 pm

frank if all this pans out over the next few weeks you may need to update your updated winter forecast and go back to your original idea. my god what a week of weather coming combined with this past week is incredible. esp the cold. now lets just hope the snow comes with it!

by **algae888** Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:34 pm

from nws disco....THE 12Z MEX HAS CAT 8 SNOWFALL FOR ALL SITES
what is the 12z mex and what is a cat 8 snowfall?

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 30, 2015 3:56 pm

30 degrees, 77% 29.92

Winds picked up noticeably in the last 15 minutes.Seeing some blowing snow now.

Received 3.5 inches today, almost as much as the busted blizzard,LOL!

by Guest Fri Jan 30, 2015 4:04 pm

From my clipper post. Ended up with 1.3" and brings me to a total of 27.1" for the season. Chance I get to 40" after the Sunday/Monday storm.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 30, 2015 4:49 pm

The wind is really picking up, can hear it howling outside my window, wind duration is going to be long, advisory up for 24 hrs for 40-50kts per NWS!

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:47 pm

Just recorded a wind gust to 26.6 mph. Going up to higher area more open. My car is shaking it's so windy really cold.

by **docstox12** Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:15 pm

21.3, 65%, 30.03 R

Temps plummeting, winds howling, blowing snow from the clipper.....very nasty night.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:51 pm

docstox12 wrote:21.3, 65%, 30.03 R

Temps plummeting, winds howling, blowing snow from the clipper.....very nasty night.

Nasty to most Doc, to many on this board including you and I this is heaven.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:52 pm

25 degrees. Windy. Run

by **amugs** Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:17 pm

WOW - out to dinner and temps dropped from 28* to 22* in one hour plus 5.

It was like being on the great plains with wind blown snow over the roadway on the reservoir up here - really cool - I love this weather.

NOW THIS IS WINTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by **jmanley32** Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:21 pm

Gust to 33.1, NWS calling the wind advisory may be too high and may drop it later this evening. Really cold out but not unbearable.

by **Taffy** Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:37 pm

21 degrees, feels like 7
Winds are NW at 19 mph.

Winds are rattling the windows and these old bones.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:44 pm

amugs wrote:WOW - out to dinner and temps dropped from 28* to 22* in one hour plus 5.

It was like being on the great plains with wind blown snow over the roadway on the reservoir up here - really cool - I love this weather.

NOW THIS IS WINTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As you've been saying Mugs wait till Tuesday morning. Right now it looks like some in our area will hit -10 to -15 that morning.

Frank's analogous year of 1977/78 so far for this winter is very apropos.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:02 pm

CP the stat man here you go - where is Hector?? We are -3.8 below normal for KYNC
I in NNJ am -5 below normal for the month with 2 days to go!

This is the fifth consecutive day in Central Park with a minimum of 32 or lower...January 2015 should end up with 25 days 32 or lower for a minimum...Last January 2014 had 24 such days...The record for consecutive days 51 set in 1976-77 since 1917-18...
season.....con/days min. 32 or lower...

1976-77...........51
1969-70...........45
1917-18...........44
1933-34...........36
1944-45...........36
2006-07...........36
1984-85...........35
1954-55...........33
1989-90...........33
1935-36...........31
1979-80...........31
2003-04...........29
1999-00...........28
1968-69...........27
1967-68...........27
1964-65...........27
2008-09...........27

by **amugs** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:05 pm

The snow will turn into a glacier for gods sake - and there are more storms an dcold on the horizon - remember that the _EPO /+PNA this couplet will drive our February with a -AO and an active STJ/GOM with a building -NAO how strong remains to be seen but indices are there as well as long range pattern set up ( hioe it verifies)

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:10 pm

amugs wrote:CP the stat man here you go - where is Hector?? We are -3.8 below normal for KYNC
I in NNJ am -5 below normal for the month with 2 days to go!

This is the fifth consecutive day in Central Park with a minimum of 32 or lower...January 2015 should end up with 25 days 32 or lower for a minimum...Last January 2014 had 24 such days...The record for consecutive days 51 set in 1976-77 since 1917-18...
season.....con/days min. 32 or lower...

1976-77...........51
1969-70...........45
1917-18...........44
1933-34...........36
1944-45...........36
2006-07...........36
1984-85...........35
1954-55...........33
1989-90...........33
1935-36...........31
1979-80...........31
2003-04...........29
1999-00...........28
1968-69...........27
1967-68...........27
1964-65...........27
2008-09...........27

Great stats Mugs. Post more if you have them.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:11 pm

CP - I get them from a guy name Unc W - so whatever I can get from him I shall - he is like you amazing with these stats - you got it my man.

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