January 3rd-4th Storm
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CPcantmeasuresnow
jmanley32
amugs
algae888
Frank_Wx
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January 3rd-4th Storm
Not much to say about this system at all to be honest. This is the coldest frame of the GFS on Saturday afternoon:
You can see northeast PA and maybe counties north of NYC may start as snow or a wintry mix, but it will be for a very BRIEF period. Possibly 1-2 hours before the changeover to rain. Everyone else is expected to see plain rain as temps. rapidly warm up due to the primary storm system cutting to our west.
There actually looks to be a squall-line looking feature on the models for Sunday afternoon
With temps beginning to crash from the west, there could be some instability involved that would lead to a rumble of thunder or a burst of wind Sunday afternoon.
1-2 inches of rain expect, higher in isolated locations under heavy storm cells.
Start: Saturday 5-7pm
End: Sunday 10pm-12am
Look for my winter outlook update tomorrow morning
You can see northeast PA and maybe counties north of NYC may start as snow or a wintry mix, but it will be for a very BRIEF period. Possibly 1-2 hours before the changeover to rain. Everyone else is expected to see plain rain as temps. rapidly warm up due to the primary storm system cutting to our west.
There actually looks to be a squall-line looking feature on the models for Sunday afternoon
With temps beginning to crash from the west, there could be some instability involved that would lead to a rumble of thunder or a burst of wind Sunday afternoon.
1-2 inches of rain expect, higher in isolated locations under heavy storm cells.
Start: Saturday 5-7pm
End: Sunday 10pm-12am
Look for my winter outlook update tomorrow morning
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
NEPA, NW NJ, north of NYC could see a minor snow accumulation before the changeover.
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
Cmc agrees
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
Looks like snow-ice-rain for eastern PA, NEPA, NW NJ, north of NYC. Maybe even 2-4 inches of snow possible for you guys.
Btw, when I say north of NYC I mean areas by CP and the Poughkeepsie area.
Btw, when I say north of NYC I mean areas by CP and the Poughkeepsie area.
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
frank so far 3 models nam gfs and rgem have some snow acc even for nyc and nearby suburbs. actually nam and rgem had this at 12z also. it looks like precip will come in earlier than originally modeled which is around noon sat 850's do not rise above 32* until 4-5pm near nyc..
gfs
rgem
nam
gfs
rgem
nam
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
para gfs
frank I know its not much but I will take anything at this point. we need some positive vibes even an inch of snow to change this winter nightmare around.lol
frank I know its not much but I will take anything at this point. we need some positive vibes even an inch of snow to change this winter nightmare around.lol
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
Haha, while NYC may start as snow I can't see how it would accumulate. Surface is warm. Maybe on grassy surfaces. We'll see. Maybe a colder trend continues.
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
I am about 10-15 miles north of cp and my ground is frozen with lows the last 2 nights in the low 20's. if precip comes in early enough it's not unrealistic for me to get a quick inch or two.Frank_Wx wrote:Haha, while NYC may start as snow I can't see how it would accumulate. Surface is warm. Maybe on grassy surfaces. We'll see. Maybe a colder trend continues.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
Oh I forgot your up north. Yea you could get 2+
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
Al's in Mt.Vernon not exactly up north lol, right next door to me. I hope we get something. BTW hi everyone, bet you wondered where I was. Let me not get into it lol. Anyways looks to be interesting seems a cold trend might be happening, 00z para shows 2-4 just north of NYC.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
So sad that some of us are excited for an hour or two of snow then over an inch of rain to wash everything away. I guess that's where things are headed this winter.
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
syosnow94 wrote:So sad that some of us are excited for an hour or two of snow then over an inch of rain to wash everything away. I guess that's where things are headed this winter.
It's not where they're headed, Since December it's just where they are.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
Euro outlines areas that could see snow tomorrow night. Areas I talked about.
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
Bah this is never a big deal until you get into the higher elevations, EURO seems to show that pretty well. Cold will get kicked out of coastal plain rather fast and most will go to rain quickly. Not much to worry about here.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
Here in northern Bergen County we are on the border again! Towns in this area have started brining the streets preparing for a mix at the start tomorrow... we might see an inch or so here (I hope!)
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
The 18Z Hi-Res NAM suggests a brief period of moderate snowfall in NYC and LI tomorrow afternoon before the changeover happens. Of course, any accumulations in the area will be washed away once the precipitation becomes plain rain.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
Not that it matters to anyone, but it looks like (and usually I would be hesitant) but NWS actually shows in its detailed forecast for my area winds 18-23mph with gust to 46mph. I would be more concerned if that icing was going to happen down here. Normally every time any wind issues have not panned out the NWS have been right with their low end numbers, so this has me concerned wind may be a issue on Sunday. And thunderstorms ?! WTF kind of winter is this!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
Wow 70-80kt LLJ, crazy.
THESE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD HELP A GOOD PORTION
OF A VERY STRONG SW LOW LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 70-80 KT BETWEEN
H7-9...TO MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO AGAIN INCREASE
INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE...SOME OF WHICH
COULD MIX DOWN THE LOW LEVEL JET MORE EFFICIENTLY...WITH A
MARGINAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AT OR ABOVE 50 KT
THESE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD HELP A GOOD PORTION
OF A VERY STRONG SW LOW LEVEL JET...BETWEEN 70-80 KT BETWEEN
H7-9...TO MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO AGAIN INCREASE
INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE...SOME OF WHICH
COULD MIX DOWN THE LOW LEVEL JET MORE EFFICIENTLY...WITH A
MARGINAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AT OR ABOVE 50 KT
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
Jman check my first post of this thread. Mentioned the instability could lead to a gust of wind and maybe even thunder on Sunday
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
A gust of wind lol, so 0% on any chance of a big snowstorm and 1 gust of wind somewhere lol. I didnt see it, see banter section for what I have been up to since Wednesday.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
Well a wind advisory would have to cover a period of what 6 hrs at minimum? Will keep watch, that could be the coasts biggest issue along with heavy rain, cutters cutters. I really hope this is not a trend. I think our get together will be fun if we don't discuss snow lol (or lack there of).
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
It's a fairly quick moving squall line Sunday. So yea, the highest gusts of wind will only occur in a 2-3 hour period.
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Re: January 3rd-4th Storm
What Time Do U Think The Winds Will Start and the height that 2 to 3 hr period. That's more than enough time to make for some trouble possibly. I am hoping to see some flakes tomorrow maybe a bit more than that but not keeping any hopes high.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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