Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

[carvin1079]

Ok because sat they have nyc metro in snow to rain. Thanks frank

[sroc4]

00z GFS now even further off the coast with the Sunday storm. Pretty sure this is a dead threat given the way H5 looks. Not going to rule out some rain though, especially for LI.

By the time the mid level energy reaches the coast, the frontal boundary stalled off our coast is too far east.



Main storm will be between 22nd-25th. Will have a blog up this weekend.

Called the Saturday storm back on the 15th

What was your time stamp Frank?   Heres mine from the same day:

by sroc4 on Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:24 pm
Frank_Wx wrote:
12z GFS is weak, strung out, and mainly out to sea for the 18th storm. EURO is going to lose this battle, in my opinion. Pattern supports the GFS.
IMO we are def going to get cyclogenisis, it just gets started too late as it passes LI. Rb somewhere a few posts back made some great points about the initial surface LP along the frontal boundary and why the sharp western side cutoffs to the precip shield until cyclogenesis can occur. Put another way until some phasing occurs which if the 12z GFS were to verify would occur too late, but its close. LI however still sees precip, but will prob be rain verbatim. Again with the blocking to the N and E not quite there yet(although better) and/or the PNA (western ridge) not amped enough as Frank says pattern most likely supports warm/weak, and/or OTS for us. However that being said its not dead yet. Ill give it until Friday 12z esp if the GEFS disagree with the op and esp if the Euro op and its ens holds serve on a western more amped track.

And before we get any responses that state once again another miss blah blah blah another let down blah blah blah this system was never really the one anyway. I myself like the 25th/26th time frame better than the 22nd/23rd, but both time frames need to cont to be monitored. All we can ask for for now is potential and there seems to be plenty of that on the table including another potential around the 29th +/- a day. .

[sabamfa]

Ok because sat they have nyc metro in snow to rain. Thanks frank

Yeah, but I think this morning Bill had said something about it possibly being more snow?

[amugs]

Ok because sat they have nyc metro in snow to rain. Thanks frank

Yeah, but I think this morning Bill had said something about it possibly being more snow?

For Saturday storm??

[sabamfa]

Yeah, mugs. I think he had mentioned, quickly, that it could be more in the way of snow than rain.

[amugs]

Yeah, mugs. I think he had mentioned, quickly, that it could be more in the way of snow than rain.

Absolutely. There maybe more of a mixing issue for LI and the NJ coast but that will all depend on the track and strength of the storm. The stronger it is deeper mb it will make its own cold air by dynamic cooling but for you in Wayne I do not see that as a problem - I may have an issue cause I am a tad more east that you but more north - all depends on the track but Bill did say there is a the possibility of a significant snowstorm.

Lots of grading to do today for end of the semester so i am not on much - portfolio assessment day on HUMP DAY - woop woop!

Carry the torch and when I check back this afternoon for the 12z runs I better be seeing great things or else !!!!

[jmanley32]

Are u guys talking about sat or tuesday?

[amugs]

Are u guys talking about sat or tuesday?

Saturday - one storm at a time here Jman - we get this this weekend and we get that Northern Stream to phase quicker than Tuesday storm could be kick arse as well IMO.

[Frank_Wx]

The storm early next week is still there and could be a Miller B. That's all you need to know right now.

[Frank_Wx]

Oh boy, this is for next Monday

[crippo84]

Oh boy, this is for next Monday

No precip issues with that one...at least with that run. That's a good look. And fairly long duration from hours 102 through 129. Nice.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

FWIW- The 6z GFS for the Monday storm was great. No temperature or precip issues for anyone and a nice hit for everybody. I love the Miller B's for that reason, many times we all benefit from them. Whether or not it happens remains to be seen, but at least it's something to watch if the Saturday storm disappoints.

[amugs]

FWIW- The 6z GFS for the Monday storm was great. No temperature or precip issues for anyone and a nice hit for everybody. I love the Miller B's for that reason, many times we all benefit from them. Whether or not it happens remains to be seen, but at least it's something to watch if the Saturday storm disappoints.

If yuo go back some posts Frank, SROC and i all said we liked the set up with Mon/Tues storm better - cold air source and H5 set up overall - not downplaying Sat storm but more players to play ball or at the dance girls to dance with fro Mon/Tues storm!!!!!

[Analog96]

I am liking the setup as we enter the first week of February, as well.

[sroc4]

Feb4th +/- 1 day

[Dunnzoo]

That time frame has looked impressive for a while now...can't wait until next week to take a closer look

[Frank_Wx]

Yea, next week has a very nice set-up. The Saturday storm kind of came out of nowhere with the southern stream energy coming up the coast. The ridge axis will be better positioned come Monday.

[jmanley32]

Last nights GFS verbatim gives us a big hit of snow verbatim. I am putting my foot down that I WILL not get excited about this one until its sunday. I refuse to do this anymore, probably wise on my part.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Last nights GFS verbatim gives us a big hit of snow verbatim.  I am putting my foot down that I WILL not get excited about this one until its sunday.  I refuse to do this anymore, probably wise on my part.

For your own sanity it is. Never believe those ridiculous snow maps 3-5 days out, even closer in they're just a computer program projection of what might be.

It took me a long time but I've finally learned. Don't get all worked up until you see it actually happening. Even then I've seen things turn while a storm is happening.

[Frank_Wx]

If there is one thing I am certain of it is that the pattern has changed. We're under a trough for the foreseeable future with multiple storm threats. A split-flow pattern may be trying to develop to open February. History has shown to be big storms in these types of set-ups.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

If there is one thing I am certain of it is that the pattern has changed. We're under a trough for the foreseeable future with multiple storm threats. A split-flow pattern may be trying to develop to open February. History has shown to be big storms in these types of set-ups.

And that's all we can ask for Frank.

Maybe one hits big, maybe several do, maybe none. I'm sure as always you'll keep us well informed on each.

[Frank_Wx]

Yea, and several of us have even mentioned next week to be a better time frame for snowfall. Especially Sroc. No one wants to see anymore rain this winter. I know what the frustration is like.

[amugs]

UKIE for Monday

[jmanley32]

GFS has heavy snow for Monday into Tuesday, 6-10 verbatim 12+ including sat, not getting excited just stating what I saw. It looks more promising and the cold is there with this one, I can see how these northern ones would work out better. I do think we have a better shot on that system delivering

[skinsfan1177]

Yeah I was going to ask I thought it was suppose to get really cold at the end of this month

[Frank_Wx]

Yeah I was going to ask I thought it was suppose to get really cold at the end of this month

It will be

[amugs]

Monday as per Euro













Could be along duration event with light to moderate snow

Big Arctic High over Hudson Bay area fro this one and a Miller B storm - northern vort coming down - nice look and H5 levels support snow as it is depicted now

[Sponsored content]