Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

by **oldtimer** Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:46 pm

Thanks Sroc Thats something As you said we are in the to early mode lol

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:00 pm

Now it's a matter of how far south it is

by **algae888** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:12 pm

12z gefs 24 acc precip shows .5-.75" liquid
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 16 Gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_18

and ensemble mean..
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 16 Gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_17

by **crippo84** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:16 pm

EURO ticked north...city gets a good glancing blow. Jersey looks good.

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 16 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:17 pm

Not a bad hit for the area especially coastal areas what are temps looking to be and is this a Monday into Tuesday event?

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:24 pm

One other question do can we still get the snowstorms wo any block

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:26 pm

Ratios would be high with that storm as well

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:32 pm

Euro is actually 6-10 area wide with isolated higher amts. Its def game on and as Skins said how far south does it go? A coastal hugger is still not out of the question yet either but seems to be less likely for now. Getting closer but still have to see how the clipper behaves post bombogenesis up into NE

by **Sanchize06** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:37 pm

With ratios the Euro gives just about everyone 8-9" with localized areas in CNJ around 10-11"

by **SNOW MAN** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:39 pm

What about EPA area ?

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:43 pm

Just for fun!!!! Subject to change This is 10:1 ratios. Prob would be higher with ratios. verbatim

[img] Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 16 Ecmwf_15

[/img]

by **Sanchize06** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:45 pm

I would say about 5-9" north of Allentown and 9-10" south of Allentown based off of the Euro

by **oldtimer** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:46 pm

Sroc Does the Clipper have to intensify more of less to be in our favor or is it where it winds up??? thanks

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:55 pm

Have to temper expectations don't want to get excited to soon. We have seen what the PV has done before

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:07 pm

You guys see the long range euro big storm signal around day 6. Big coastal. Does it happen who knows but things contine to b active. Monday I'm Taking It Easy With Although I Like How THE Runs Been Trending If I See 6 To 10 With Higher Ratios Will Have Well Over A Foot otg.

by Guest Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:36 pm

Amounts and tracks 3 days out before the clipper intensifies is nuts. Everybody relax wait till Saturday morning and THEN if the storm is still a possibility we can talk about tracks and amounts.

by **oldtimer** Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:40 pm

Syo Its still fun lol

by **SNOW MAN** Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:48 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:I would say about 5-9" north of Allentown and 9-10" south of Allentown based off of the Euro

Sounds pretty good to me. Any thoughts on start and end times ?

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:52 pm

Jeez Louize. #JMA

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 29, 2015 3:16 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:What about EPA area ?

Heavy rain and thunderstorms. The storm seems to have a warm center and it's passing right over your area.

by **SNOW MAN** Thu Jan 29, 2015 3:31 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:What about EPA area ?

Heavy rain and thunderstorms. The storm seems to have a warm center and it's passing right over your area.

Hey, your not suppose to be checking in today. I knew you were lurking around. Your probably right, I'll probably get rain while everyone else gets a good thump of snow. UGH !

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 29, 2015 3:42 pm

The cold after the storm worries me, Cold tomorrow with the wind chill will be dangerous. protect all pets

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 29, 2015 3:44 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:What about EPA area ?

Heavy rain and thunderstorms. The storm seems to have a warm center and it's passing right over your area.

Hey, your not suppose to be checking in today. I knew you were lurking around. Your probably right, I'll probably get rain while everyone else gets a good thump of snow. UGH !

As you were saying this morning, snow and the weather are like crack very addictive. I've got a ton of work to do today and I've checked in at least a half dozen times. Right now you look like you're in a good spot for this one snowman, but as NJ said who wants to be in the sweet spot 4 days ahead of time, you know it's just gonna change several times I'm sure, if we even get it at all.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:01 pm

I don't know how it could be rain with PV to the north strong PV to say the least. Plenty cold air on Euro. Even cms catching onto idea

by **algae888** Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:23 pm

oh boy!!! with all this cold I love hearing this...

THE GULF OPENS UP MIDWEEK POTENTIALLY IN TANDEM WITH ANOTHER NRN
STREAM UPR TROF. ECMWF PROGS LOW PRES HEADING TOWARDS CAPE COD. THIS
REFLECTS THE IDEA OF LOW PRES EXHIBITED IN THE 00Z RUN. THE GFS IS
LESS ORGANIZED. INCLUDED 30 POPS FOR PCPN WED.

by **amugs** Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:23 pm

Euro looks great and gfs does too imho for sun to mon and this us where we want to be in the trend NOT the other way as we have learned from 2014! Another beast Thurs timeframe as well on both globals euro, gfs. Exciting times upcoming. and brutal cold my god mon night into Tues is going to give new meaning to cold!

by **algae888** Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:37 pm

look at all that moisture in the gulf and s/e coast. come north baby!!!
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 16 97ep48iwbg_fill

day 6-7

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