Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

[rb924119]

Yeah, I'm too blame for that new rule too. Sorry guys :/ I just think it's fun seeing these ridiculous outcomes and thinking "What if?", ya know? Anyway, not trying to ruffle any feathers, but have you all looked the 500 Spaghetti plots of all ensembles for this time frame? I just want to mention, ONLY for the sake of creating a good discussion, that if you look at them for this period, take notice of how many individual ensemble members from all camps (GFS/CMC/EURO) show support for a much more amplified system. There are a good portion of members that are much more amplified with the H5 flow than the means and even Operationals (except the CMC lol), which would suggest an increased likelihood of a more amplified system and possibly more precipitation **of some form**. Idk, I think for all three camps to be showing this degree of relative agreement with something like this, we need to watch it very carefully. Just my opinion.

[Guest]

Sounds like some of the forecasters on here are starting to ease up on their confidence for a snowstorm late weekend/early next week!!   FWIW NWS upton insists on snow for our area with about 1.25 QPF area wide.  

I wouldnt let my lack of discussion be mistaken for lack of confidence.  Syo I would think after the last debacle you would appreciate the tempered excitement  until we got a little closer.  Cant win.  

I do like this approach better. I wasn't trying to rile up anyone. Why is everyone so sensitive? I was trying to be optimistic by putting the NWS statement in there.

[Frank_Wx]

Yeah, I'm too blame for that new rule too. Sorry guys :/ I just think it's fun seeing these ridiculous outcomes and thinking "What if?", ya know? Anyway, not trying to ruffle any feathers, but have you all looked the 500 Spaghetti plots of all ensembles for this time frame? I just want to mention, ONLY for the sake of creating a good discussion, that if you look at them for this period, take notice of how many individual ensemble members from all camps (GFS/CMC/EURO) show support for a much more amplified system. There are a good portion of members that are much more amplified with the H5 flow than the means and even Operationals (except the CMC lol), which would suggest an increased likelihood of a more amplified system and possibly more precipitation **of some form**. Idk, I think for all three camps to be showing this degree of relative agreement with something like this, we need to watch it very carefully. Just my opinion.

You're not too blame at all. I just think it's a good rule and will help temper expectations a bit. And yes, the ensembles are impressive for the system next week. This storm has my attention for sure. I need to take time and analyze the type if pattern we're working with. From the surface, it looks ok. Not great. I was more excited about the pattern we had with the blizzard that never came to be besides LI/NE. That was a good example of just because we have a good pattern doesn't automatically mean we'll see a snowstorm. The good pattern just helps raise that probability. Maybe this time around a so-so pattern will bring us a widespread Roidzilla. You just never know this winter.

[Frank_Wx]

The weekend into early next week setup is quite intriguing, but leaves me skeptical at the same time. What I'm trying to wrap my finger around is whether the overrunning or the coastal storm will be the main event. Perhaps even both.

1. There's an impressive east-based block in the Atlantic. Also, we see duo trough's in the Pacific allowing for heights to rise over the west coast.

2. The arctic front is draped along the upper Midwest into the Northeast with the PV just east of the Hudson pressing down on it, bringing overrunning precip into our area with waves of H5 energy riding along the front.

3. By Monday, once the western ridge amplifies, we see the northern stream energy dig into the trough and a coastal storm tries to develop along the tail-end of the arctic front. Its a slow mover in nature due to the block we see in the northern jet, partially due to the higher heights east of Greenland.

4. There's a lot of upper air energy involved and the feeling I have is the models will continue playing around with it until there's better sampling. Some questions that arise is once the western ridge develops, how long will it be before it begins rolling east due to the train of trough's in the Pacific? Downstream this will have major implications on if our coastal storm can amplify.

5. My suggestion is to monitor the trends at H5 and see where the models are trying to focus their attention on. It's a bizarre setup but one that could give someone in the northeast a hell of a lot of snow if everything comes together, meaning both the positioning of the arctic front and the evolution of the coastal.

We'll see.

[skinsfan1177]

Great write up and points Frank day by day let's see how it all comes together. And one thing I've learned in past if local Mets and media start talking this early well usually it's not good in the sense of a lot of snow .

[rb924119]

Good write-up Frank!! I think they both end up being the main event. I think that because of the crazy-tight pressure gradient that sets up, we will see stronger lift than what is being modeled, which would of course increase QPF amounts. Secondly, as you stated, the models are having a tough time with what follows the overrunning event. Based on what I've seen, there is enough evidence to suggest that a coastal storm will form, and that it will be slow to move northward. Where it goes is still up in the air (pun intended lol), but I think that it will end up following the coast fairly closely, yielding even bigger totals. I just feel that there is too much consensus amongst everything for that to not happen in some way or another. Do I think that 12z CMC Operational run from today is going to be the result; absolutely not lmao But I do think that we see a middle-ground solution evolve over the next couple of days. I truly do.

[Frank_Wx]

Thanks guys.

The upper air pattern is very interesting like I talked about above. Nice ridge and east-based block, but the trough over the east is not-so impressive

[rb924119]

Hey man, good work deserves recognition, and that goes for everybody on here. UKMET seems to disagree with you, though :p


http://proa.accuweather.com/adcgrads/graphic.aspx?mod=UKMET&mt=&hr=96&map=conus&gv0=C&mv0=hgtprs&mv1=prmslmsl&gs=hgt_mslp&cap=500mb%20heights(m)/Sea%20Level%20Pressure(mb)&uid=

http://proa.accuweather.com/adcgrads/graphic.aspx?mod=UKMET&mt=&hr=120&map=conus&gv0=C&mv0=hgtprs&mv1=prmslmsl&gs=hgt_mslp&cap=500mb%20heights(m)/Sea%20Level%20Pressure(mb)&uid=

[Frank_Wx]

For those wondering what this overrunning event could look like...



This is the arctic front set to hit us tomorrow. On Sunday, picture something like this except oriented more from NW to SE. Extending from the Great Lakes into NYC. At least that's what's modeled right now.

[Math23x7]

0Z GGEM is way north in terms of snowfall. After a brief period of snow Saturday night, we then undergo a lull for much of Sunday followed by a rain for much of the tri-state area. Not until you get to Massachusetts do you get the prolonged snow event.

[SoulSingMG]

EUROOOOOOOOOOOOOO. Big hit, the city on northward for Monday into Tues.

[SoulSingMG]

Shows 15+ inches from North Central Jersey on northward. What a peculiar system to track.

[skinsfan1177]

I think what's good is so far this system has shown a northern snow storm so it's early I think it could trend south depending how strong that hp is.

[SNOW MAN]

I think what's good is so far this system has shown a northern snow storm so it's early I think it could trend south depending how strong that hp is.

Skins, lets keep our fingers crossed that we all do well with this possible event.

[amugs]

Great analysis Frank and that ridge in the west is key to what can happen east here. I have a distinct feeling that teh models will have a better handling of this by 12Z tomorrow. FWIW pro mets are honking on this - Evans, Lee and Gregory who I watch - Evans said we have to see if that coastal low forms and where it forms etc cause it could be whether we measure in inches or feet but "I think we maybe at the low end of what I just said even if it doesn't produce" meaning the coastal.

Another observation folks over running events usually start earlier than modeled. I think we see more precip than what is currently being forecasted just my opinion and experience with these over running events.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I was just taking note of whats been happening in parts of the midwest the last several weeks.

Kansas City Missouri saw 6 days over 60 degrees in January with a high of 76. It continues in February as Kansas City is expecting a high of 70 on Saturday. What I find amazing is that none of that has progressed east in all that time. And that's a very good setup for us.

[Frank_Wx]

I'm keeping an eye on a potential storm between the 14-21st of February. I really like the prospects of a -NAO/+PNA setting up in that time frame. We'll see.

[Frank_Wx]

The aforementioned time period looks impressive. Granted this isn't a west-based block, but we see an Atlantic ridge/east based block

[Frank_Wx]

Next weekend looks extremely cold. It actually is "too cold to snow"

[skinsfan1177]

Of course

[jmanley32]

too cold to snow?! Who ever heard of such a thing, break out the chapstick jeeze!

[jmanley32]

Euro has a big coastal developing on tues/wed to the south, is this a new threat or the same one we were looking at just forming later?

[Frank_Wx]

Same one. It's going out to sea. I'm pretty positive.

[SNOW MAN]

Just watched the Mets/Profs at Penn State. In there 12 day trend segment they said it doesn't look like they'll be any substantial storms in this period. Just a few clipper systems and a persistent NW flow. I guess we shall see.

[Math23x7]

Euro has a big coastal developing on tues/wed to the south, is this a new threat or the same one we were looking at just forming later?

I checked the EURO ensembles for 12Z and just about all of them have this low pressure system going well out to sea. One of the 51 members, however, has it stalling off Cape Hatteras for quite some time and gives us a blizzard. Of course, none of the other models do that (>98%) so I think we're pretty much done with that. I'll reconsider only if it makes a trend westward, which I doubt.

[amugs]

https://2img.net/h/oi58.tinypic.com/1gjbs6.png

Not too bad -EPO/+PNA and East based block

MJO going to phase 8 and even 1 as Frank pointed o out wit a transient - to neutral AO.

Next few weeks may be fun and the week of presidents holiday looks to be our  next chances for snow storms.  Next weekend brutal cold peeps frickin brutal!!!!

[Guest]

Just this past weekend a few guys were talking up all the snow possibilities coming up. What happened? Are they off the table? What changed?

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