Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

[docstox12]

But too often for my liking Jim.I wish we could get a phase with southern stream energy form the gulf and have a big one come up the coast hitting us for a change.Don't know why the southern energy has been blocked off this winter.?

[jimv45]

you are right docs those are the ones i grew up to coming up the coast with that nice high to the north and inside the benchmark boom.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Yep, saw Bernie Rayno's explanation and we will definitely get a few inches but it's the same story.These clippers develop too late for our area but always blast NE.It's always been that way.

Patterns change Doc, if you remember there was a 6 week period last year the clippers were blowing up and nailing us and then it suddenly stopped and went south.

Every storm can't nail you know where, can it? It's freakin unheard of already.

[Frank_Wx]

I'll be making the first update to the Thursday storm within the next hour. I also ask that all Boston talk be kept in banter. This is a PA/NJ/NY/CT forum

What's going on there is imlressive, no doubt. I myself amazed and will continue to talk about them in banter.

[Guest]

Bernie Rayno using the b word plus big snows north of Ny City if the american model is right for Thursday night!!

Saw the video hour and a half ago.  What's all the fuss?  He said no big snows in NYC metro area.  Maybe a couple of inches.  B might get a blizzard, but he said they get 6" minimum.  F ME!!!!!!!!!!

[RJB8525]

i know, just something more depressing at this current state

[skinsfan1177]

Why are so many not believing its Monday Night trends have been west on the gfs never say never patterns do change

[SoulSingMG]

Bernie Rayno using the b word plus big snows north of Ny City if the american model is right for Thursday night!!

Saw the video hour and a half ago.  What's all the fuss?  He said no big snows in NYC metro area.  Maybe a couple of inches.  B might get a blizzard, but he said they get 6" minimum.  F ME!!!!!!!!!!

I'm surprised he would write us off before more guidance comes in.

[skinsfan1177]

Bernie Rayno using the b word plus big snows north of Ny City if the american model is right for Thursday night!!

Saw the video hour and a half ago.  What's all the fuss?  He said no big snows in NYC metro area.  Maybe a couple of inches.  B might get a blizzard, but he said they get 6" minimum.  F ME!!!!!!!!!!

I'm surprised he would write us off before more guidance comes in.

Exactly right Soul I don't get it. Patterns change and this may be a time where it does. We just saw a shift west in gfs and people are writing it off.

[Math23x7]

Why are so many not believing its Monday Night trends have been west on the gfs never say never patterns do change

I think a lot of us are now under the "I'll believe it when I see it" mindset. There have numerous potentials for "Godzillas" and even "Roidzillas" this winter and for areas from CPK westward, they have yet to get one. I think because of the disappointments they've experienced the last few month's, we now expect the same going forward.

[docstox12]

Yep, saw Bernie Rayno's explanation and we will definitely get a few inches but it's the same story.These clippers develop too late for our area but always blast NE.It's always been that way.

Patterns change Doc, if you remember there was a 6 week period last year the clippers were blowing up and nailing us and then it suddenly stopped and went south.

Every storm can't nail you know where, can it? It's freakin unheard of  already.

Here's hoping CP that the pattern changes now.I'm not complaining, though, we've had a 9 incher, 7.5 incher and an 11 and 5.6 recently.Lot's of great action.Just would love to see a Miller A bomb of 20 plus this year, guess that's why I'm frustrated with this clipper stuff.

[Guest]

Why are so many not believing its Monday Night trends have been west on the gfs never say never patterns do change

I think a lot of us are now under the "I'll believe it when I see it" mindset.  There have numerous potentials for "Godzillas" and even "Roidzillas" this winter and for areas from CPK westward, they have yet to get one.  I think because of the disappointments they've experienced the last few month's, we now expect the same going forward.

Well said Bellerose buddy, and I've gotten above average snowfall for the season and am still jaded.

[skinsfan1177]

Why are so many not believing its Monday Night trends have been west on the gfs never say never patterns do change

I think a lot of us are now under the "I'll believe it when I see it" mindset.  There have numerous potentials for "Godzillas" and even "Roidzillas" this winter and for areas from CPK westward, they have yet to get one.  I think because of the disappointments they've experienced the last few month's, we now expect the same going forward.

I understand that completely for my area here and Ace we had the one event of significance the blizzard that never came to be here but still snuck in 11 inches and its been a little here and their and lots of rain. But something has to give that's my mindset and this upcoming pattern and events may deliver. We know the cold is coming now we need the storm and it just may.

[Grselig]

I know this belongs in banter, but this winter for many of us its the boy who cried wolf. I am now conditioned to believe that snow is minimal until it actually falls. in Wayne today we had zero accumulation! I know if fact that this could change at any storm.

[jmanley32]

Rayno is good but too early to write it off for us in NYC area IMO.

[Frank_Wx]

Thread is up

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS for the weekend shows the inverted trough. Temps in the single digits with snow showers. Ratios at least 40:1.

[Frank_Wx]

Wow



Close H5 over the lakes. Huge inverted trough signature.

[Yschiff]

Could you post the GFS snowfall totals for the weekend storm?

[Frank_Wx]

High temps on Sunday

[aiannone]

High temps on Sunday

Frank, that is 7pm Sunday temps, little past the high temp for the day.

[Frank_Wx]

High temps on Sunday

Frank, that is 7pm Sunday temps, little past the high temp for the day.

I know I thought it was 18z at first. But even in the early afternoon temps are below 0.

Insane.

How much snow you get this storm?

[jmanley32]

Frank so even if we got .5 qpf out of the week end snow we could forseeably see 20 inches of snow?! 40:1 thats insane, do you actually see this verifying, imagine if it hit dead on and we get like 1-2 qpf we would be buffalo, and everyone on here would be praising the snow gods. Those temps are scary, windchills will be of the artic type, extremely dangerous. I see either delayed or no school monday morning just for the cold alone.

[jmanley32]

Wow



Close H5 over the lakes. Huge inverted trough signature.

does this mean we have a chance for this system to hit us? Its a beast, and the winds will be howling, at least thats what models show. Yikes again on the tempos saw windchills -20 to -40!

[jmanley32]

The GFS for the weekend shows the inverted trough. Temps in the single digits with snow showers. Ratios at least 40:1.

SO GFS shows almost .3-.5 qpf around these parts for sat/sun, so that would translate to 12-20 inches, so a godzilla on the low end? How is that possible with snow showers.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The GFS for the weekend shows the inverted trough. Temps in the single digits with snow showers. Ratios at least 40:1.

SO GFS shows almost .3-.5 qpf around these parts for sat/sun, so that would translate to 12-20 inches, so a godzilla on the low end? How is that possible with snow showers.

Please stop, you're killing these things before they can even breathe.

[jmanley32]

Lol I've just never heard of a 40 to 1 ratio that's nuts. 06z run has the weekend storm ever so close it has the Rediculous cold high winds now we just need the precip closer I see sat being more a threat than thurs.

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