March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Hey guys! Bad night baby very sick did not sleep much and was just able catch up on like 5 pages lol. So it's snowing pretty good here 2 inches measured about 20 min ago. Probably over that. My phone app says 32 but car says 28. I'm thinking it's about 27 as car always bit warmer. Wow the radar us impressive I would not be surprised at all to see 6 or more if we can really get into those bands.

Temperature down to 27 in Syosset.  Better ratios.  3"+ (I just shoveled)  Radar from Eastern PA and Jersey looks good moving ENE.  Nice fire cranking, kids working on a puzzle, wife sleeping.  Too early to start drinking. (I'm not Jimmy Buffet)  Just Emailed my principal and grounds crew from school who doubted Frank's forecast yesterday to see their thoughts now.

I'm happiest for Doc and CP. They're cashing in when it wasn't expected till late in the game. I've had a great run down here now at 60"+ for the season.

Temp just sitting at 32

jmanley32 wrote:Hey guys! Bad night baby very sick did not sleep much and was just able catch up on like 5 pages lol. So it's snowing pretty good here 2 inches measured about 20 min ago. Probably over that. My phone app says 32 but car says 28. I'm thinking it's about 27 as car always bit warmer. Wow the radar us impressive I would not be surprised at all to see 6 or more if we can really get into those bands.

Hope your kid feels better. And yes, I think 6" is attainable

fwiw channel 4 just went through futurecast radar and it showed moderate to heavy snow in the area until 7pm... hope that is true

...By the way, went to get coffee and bagels and the roads are the worst I've seen them this year. Over an inch of compacted Greyish/white slush and snow on top. These are main roads and with temps. crashing it's going to be an NHL caliber ice rink here!!

Glad NYC kept schools open. PM trip home will be delightful.

jmanley32 wrote:Hey guys! Bad night baby very sick did not sleep much and was just able catch up on like 5 pages lol. So it's snowing pretty good here 2 inches measured about 20 min ago. Probably over that. My phone app says 32 but car says 28. I'm thinking it's about 27 as car always bit warmer. Wow the radar us impressive I would not be surprised at all to see 6 or more if we can really get into those bands.

Sorry about the baby Jman. Mine was running a fever and an ear ache as well so I feel your pain.

Yeah Frank. She's a goner lmao Better than nothing, though, and if I remember correctly your map verified, at least for here. Nice work!!!

3" moderate snow.

Feel better Jman junior!!!

18* and very light snow. Didn't even accumulate an inch yet. I guess I'm in the snow black hole. lol.

Upton just upped totals

Thanks Syos.

23.4 degrees and moderate to sometimes heavy snow continues here.

Anything from this point forward I consider is a gift up here from this storm. Still waiting for the official measurements from my HV apprentice zookeeper. I'd guess minimum 2 inches so far.

rb924119 wrote:Yeah Frank. She's a goner lmao Better than nothing, though, and if I remember correctly your map verified, at least for here. Nice work!!!

Barely. I still think I was too high N&W. All good let's see how it ends.

Idk how much snow. 2-3" probably

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Thanks Syos.

23.4 degrees and moderate to sometimes heavy snow continues here.

Anything from this point forward I consider is a gift up here from this storm. Still waiting for the official measurements from my HV apprentice zookeeper. I'd guess minimum 2 inches so far.

How much you have? Please say at least 3

3" here, pushing 4 soon.

Upton upped totals

Latest Radar...................Long Way to go

3.5" and visibility dropping/snow picking up after a brief lull between bands.

Wouldn't shock me to see some of those 4-6 become 6-8, too.

I cant venture out with this foot Frank. We shall have to depend on Doctox for official measurements today.

The snow intensity has let up here, in the last 15 minutes.

23.0 degrees and Light to moderate snow now.

Ripping right now crazy!

Hey Ryan, I called this an hour ago.


NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST THU MAR 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WV AND WESTERN/NORTHERN VA TO DC METRO/MD/SOUTHEAST
PA/NJ/DE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 051258Z - 051800Z

SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1
IN/HR...PARTICULARLY INCLUDING A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
WV...WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...FAR SOUTHEAST PA...THE DC METRO...NJ/MD
AND NORTHERN DE.

DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA VICINITY BY
MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. NEAR-SURFACE SUB-FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE
WET-BULB 32F ISOLINE EXTENDING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...NEAR
THE DC METRO AREA...TO NEAR PHILADELPHIA/CENTRAL NJ AS OF 12Z.

AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH A
FAVORABLE ELEVATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY
SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET ALSO INITIALLY POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIKELY TO LOCALLY EXCEED 1 IN/HR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. THE 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES SUBSTANTIATES THIS NOTION
WITH CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAVING OCCURRED BELOW 700 MB OVER THE PAST
12-HOURS...WITH ONLY A NEGLIGIBLE ABOVE-FREEZING ELEVATED LAYER
/AROUND 0.5C/ REMAINING AT 850 MB AS OF 12Z. OF NOTE RELATED TO
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS
AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST
BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I cant venture out with this foot Frank. We shall have to depend on Doctox for official measurements today.

The snow intensity has let up here, in the last 15 minutes.

23.0 degrees and Light to moderate snow now.

Feel better brotha

4 here

Frank_Wx wrote:Hey Ryan, I called this an hour ago.


NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST THU MAR 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WV AND WESTERN/NORTHERN VA TO DC METRO/MD/SOUTHEAST
PA/NJ/DE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 051258Z - 051800Z

SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1
IN/HR...PARTICULARLY INCLUDING A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
WV...WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...FAR SOUTHEAST PA...THE DC METRO...NJ/MD
AND NORTHERN DE.

DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA VICINITY BY
MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. NEAR-SURFACE SUB-FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE
WET-BULB 32F ISOLINE EXTENDING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...NEAR
THE DC METRO AREA...TO NEAR PHILADELPHIA/CENTRAL NJ AS OF 12Z.

AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH A
FAVORABLE ELEVATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY
SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET ALSO INITIALLY POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIKELY TO LOCALLY EXCEED 1 IN/HR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. THE 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES SUBSTANTIATES THIS NOTION
WITH CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAVING OCCURRED BELOW 700 MB OVER THE PAST
12-HOURS...WITH ONLY A NEGLIGIBLE ABOVE-FREEZING ELEVATED LAYER
/AROUND 0.5C/ REMAINING AT 850 MB AS OF 12Z. OF NOTE RELATED TO
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS
AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST
BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE.

Hey Frank

28 and overcast in Hyde Park (just north of Poughkeepsie), absolutely nothing. Had a little light snow after midnight but that's it. It looks like we are in it on radar but nothing reaching the ground.