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BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 16, 2015 3:44 pm

true enough both Al and Ace.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Mar 16, 2015 3:48 pm

I still have a few inches of snowpack over most of my yard, and it looks like this comes in Friday evening. Going to be close....

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Post by snow247 Mon Mar 16, 2015 4:02 pm

I really hope this produces for us.

I'm craving a late season heavy wet snowstorm bomb that gives everyone 6-12 inches, the kind of storm where snow sticks to everything in sight. It happened in late October a few years ago, so why not late March?
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 16, 2015 4:36 pm

Yeah not so great for the potential of power outages though, at least there are no leaves on the trees yet, and yes 2011 and 2012 Oct/Nov snowstorms.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 16, 2015 4:37 pm

Most of the Euro ensembles are either a light to moderate storm or no hit and a few just have insane amounts of snow, but that's a beyond outlier.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 16, 2015 6:52 pm

If the storm stays this weak, I could actually see it trend warmer. Surface is warm  and storm is coming during the day. All southern stream / -NAO driven. Perhaps a couple inches still possible in NYC

BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f108

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 16, 2015 6:57 pm

The storm has potential to be robust. We have blocking with an amplified MJO. The STJ connection should be there. I think the ceiling with this event is 3-6 inches. That would be quite impressive. I'll place those odds at 30% now, and 70% at 1-3 inches. GFS would be nice if it was further west. Need the Pac ridge to hold in the west

BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f105

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Post by chrism Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:21 pm

Dt does not think it will happen,posted a few hours ago

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Post by amugs Mon Mar 16, 2015 9:21 pm

After looking at the model runs and being a snow weenie I think we will see this storm rap up nicely on future model runs. -AO and neutral NAO should slow down the flow appreciably and allow this storm to undergo positive feedback and rapid synoptic wave development.

Major caveat at this point is this split flow has created model chaos this year, even inside 48 hrs. So confidence will remain lower than usual....even though Upton's AFD seems to be a bit bullish IMO at this point

That being said, at this point  a track closer to the coast and wrapped up, than ots and strung out. this shortwave come in hot east of the Rockies and we should be good.

Peeps are going to be cursing us weenie's come Saturday!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 16, 2015 10:09 pm

Without a doubt in my mind the pattern looked much better on the models last week than it does today. With this Saturday time frame in mind, this is what the 12z GFS from March 11th showed:

BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 Gfs_z500a_namer_42

Here was today's 18z GFS run valid for 00z Sunday (same time stamp as image above)

BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 Gfs_z500a_namer_22

1. The west ridge is flatter
2. The -EPO/-AO/-NAO bridge is no longer apparent
3. Lost the Baja cut-off upper low
4. In response, the eastern trough is progressive

BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 Gfs_z500_vort_namer_20

Without any digging from the northern stream, the southern s/w energy has only itself with the aid of some blocking to try and tug a surface low close enough to our coast to bring us some snow. The lack of dynamics and the timing of the storm coming during the day could limit snowfall amounts around the major cities. As of now, I would say minor snow event Saturday and more moderate for those N&W of NYC. Will be interesting to see in future runs if there's more digging/phasing between the northern and southern branches. With the blocking going transient, I would say no. But we'll see.

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Mar 17, 2015 1:17 am

The 0Z CMC has mainly snow just north of NYC for the Friday-Saturday system.

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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 17, 2015 1:22 am

@Math23x7 wrote:The 0Z CMC has mainly snow just north of NYC for the Friday-Saturday system.
and the 0z gfs just south and east of nyc
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 17, 2015 3:58 am

euro looks nice. do not have details just psu ewall. looks like pna is trying to spike maybe a little to late.  -ao. neutral nao and nice ridge in west could help this storm slow down get its act together.
BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 F72
plus 50/50 low looks to keep whatever cold air we have to work with locked in.
BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 F96
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 17, 2015 5:28 am

BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

Euro looks warm at the surface, but cold enough at other levels that most of us should still be snowing. Will have to look at soundings later on.

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Post by Snow88 Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:18 am

12z Nam through 84 with more to go

BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 333ihi9
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 17, 2015 1:34 pm

12z GFS is pretty much a miss to the south.
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:18 pm

hearing euro is a nice hit for area...
BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 F72
BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 F96
details anyone?
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:19 pm

ridge in west looks really nice on two consecutive euro runs.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:23 pm

I will look and let you know, wxbell is slow as you know.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:26 pm

Yep it sure is verbatim

BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 Ecmwf_11
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:33 pm

Next few frames drop another inch or two with a small piece of precip coming in from the NW to make it about 6-8 at 10:1, 15:1 map is near Godzilla, but I doubt it will be cold enough to support any ratios.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:35 pm

GFS was very close despite a miss. My senses are beggining to percolate

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Post by sroc4 Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:37 pm

unfort ratios will prob be less than 10:1 in most locations, esp if the bulk were to fall during daytime hrs. So dont even look at the 15:1 ratio maps.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 17, 2015 3:24 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yep it sure is verbatim

BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 Ecmwf_11

6-8 inches pretty much area wide for the first day of spring. I'll take it any day.
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Post by snow247 Tue Mar 17, 2015 3:28 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Yep it sure is verbatim

BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go - Page 2 Ecmwf_11

6-8 inches pretty much area wide for the first day of spring. I'll take it any day.

I second this
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