BLOG: Winter Not Ready To Let Go

another thing to note ground is no longer frozen. this may end up being an elevation storm.

algae888 wrote:another thing to note  ground is no longer frozen. this may end up being an elevation storm.

Marginal temps or lackluster precipitation rates wont cut it during the day this late in the year. Many learned that a few years ago with a coastal that had marginal temps around 32-33...dynamics of the system had no chance to win out over the temps and sun angle

true enough both Al and Ace.

I still have a few inches of snowpack over most of my yard, and it looks like this comes in Friday evening. Going to be close....

I really hope this produces for us.

I'm craving a late season heavy wet snowstorm bomb that gives everyone 6-12 inches, the kind of storm where snow sticks to everything in sight. It happened in late October a few years ago, so why not late March?

Yeah not so great for the potential of power outages though, at least there are no leaves on the trees yet, and yes 2011 and 2012 Oct/Nov snowstorms.

Most of the Euro ensembles are either a light to moderate storm or no hit and a few just have insane amounts of snow, but that's a beyond outlier.

If the storm stays this weak, I could actually see it trend warmer. Surface is warm  and storm is coming during the day. All southern stream / -NAO driven. Perhaps a couple inches still possible in NYC

The storm has potential to be robust. We have blocking with an amplified MJO. The STJ connection should be there. I think the ceiling with this event is 3-6 inches. That would be quite impressive. I'll place those odds at 30% now, and 70% at 1-3 inches. GFS would be nice if it was further west. Need the Pac ridge to hold in the west

Dt does not think it will happen,posted a few hours ago

After looking at the model runs and being a snow weenie I think we will see this storm rap up nicely on future model runs. -AO and neutral NAO should slow down the flow appreciably and allow this storm to undergo positive feedback and rapid synoptic wave development.

Major caveat at this point is this split flow has created model chaos this year, even inside 48 hrs. So confidence will remain lower than usual....even though Upton's AFD seems to be a bit bullish IMO at this point

That being said, at this point  a track closer to the coast and wrapped up, than ots and strung out. this shortwave come in hot east of the Rockies and we should be good.

Peeps are going to be cursing us weenie's come Saturday!!

Without a doubt in my mind the pattern looked much better on the models last week than it does today. With this Saturday time frame in mind, this is what the 12z GFS from March 11th showed:



Here was today's 18z GFS run valid for 00z Sunday (same time stamp as image above)



1. The west ridge is flatter
2. The -EPO/-AO/-NAO bridge is no longer apparent
3. Lost the Baja cut-off upper low
4. In response, the eastern trough is progressive



Without any digging from the northern stream, the southern s/w energy has only itself with the aid of some blocking to try and tug a surface low close enough to our coast to bring us some snow. The lack of dynamics and the timing of the storm coming during the day could limit snowfall amounts around the major cities. As of now, I would say minor snow event Saturday and more moderate for those N&W of NYC. Will be interesting to see in future runs if there's more digging/phasing between the northern and southern branches. With the blocking going transient, I would say no. But we'll see.

The 0Z CMC has mainly snow just north of NYC for the Friday-Saturday system.

Math23x7 wrote:The 0Z CMC has mainly snow just north of NYC for the Friday-Saturday system.

and the 0z gfs just south and east of nyc

euro looks nice. do not have details just psu ewall. looks like pna is trying to spike maybe a little to late.  -ao. neutral nao and nice ridge in west could help this storm slow down get its act together.

plus 50/50 low looks to keep whatever cold air we have to work with locked in.

Euro looks warm at the surface, but cold enough at other levels that most of us should still be snowing. Will have to look at soundings later on.

12z Nam through 84 with more to go

12z GFS is pretty much a miss to the south.

hearing euro is a nice hit for area...


details anyone?

ridge in west looks really nice on two consecutive euro runs.

I will look and let you know, wxbell is slow as you know.

Yep it sure is verbatim

Next few frames drop another inch or two with a small piece of precip coming in from the NW to make it about 6-8 at 10:1, 15:1 map is near Godzilla, but I doubt it will be cold enough to support any ratios.

GFS was very close despite a miss. My senses are beggining to percolate

unfort ratios will prob be less than 10:1 in most locations, esp if the bulk were to fall during daytime hrs. So dont even look at the 15:1 ratio maps.

jmanley32 wrote:Yep it sure is verbatim

6-8 inches pretty much area wide for the first day of spring. I'll take it any day.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Yep it sure is verbatim

6-8 inches pretty much area wide for the first day of spring. I'll take it any day.

I second this