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Good Morning! Today's Mo Mo blog touches on Thanksgiving and the potential December 1st storm.
Nice Frank! I think I might see the differences in the GFS Ensemble and EURO Ensemble from last night. It looks like the GFS doesn't completely wave-break the pseudo Rex Block, and allows the pattern to drift east as the ridge ever so slowly bleeds over the top of the cut-off low. This allows the cut-off to "dominate" and continue to keep heights high to its east, since it remains closed and doesn't completely remerge with the mid-latitude flow, thus resulting in the cutter. The EURO Ensemble completes the wave break and crashes the top of the ridge over the closed low as the pattern slides eastward. As a direct result of the wave break, this forces the closed low to open up and remerge with the flow a lot sooner than the GFS, which keeps the flow much flatter to the east and allows the surface low to come further east. I'm actually torn about which solution to believe at this point. The GFS solution makes some sense to me, as this type of setup (Rex Block) is typically a very stable one, so the idea of the pattern keeping this look as it slowly drifts eastward does sound like it holds merit. By the same token, though, the EURO idea of crashing the top of the ridge over top also makes sense to me, given the highly amplified, but progressive nature of the pattern. In summary, I don't know what to make of it other than the fact that we will see some sort of active weather during this period ahaha I'm quite interested to see how this evolves in the coming days.
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I'm enthused the GFS is showing a couple of coastal storms in the long range. A good sign for the ensuing winter.
@Frank_Wx wrote:I'm enthused the GFS is showing a couple of coastal storms in the long range. A good sign for the ensuing winter.
You are stealing my line - i just wrote that in the LR thread!!!!!!! HAHAHAAHA!
As they say the boss never steals from his workers, he borrows their ideas!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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