11/30 Mo Mo: Winter Pattern Update

Good Morning everyone,

Today's Mo Mo touches on a couple of weather updates. The first half speaks about the rain event this week and the one next week. The second half speaks to the Winter pattern, specifically around the progression of our current El Nino and the current state of the Stratosphere. Give it a read and feel free to ask questions. I hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving break.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/11/1130-mo-mo-winter-update.html

Best,

Frank

Again, well done Frank!! I completely agree with your assessment (not surprisingly lol), but I do have two questions (or comments):

1. Where do you get your Stratosphere graphics from? The best I can find is Accuweather's Zonal Mean Zonal Wind at the 10 hPa level lol

2. Regarding your discussion on vertical wave propagation, specifically the causes of the SSW's, you mention:

"...the above normal Eurasian SAI (snow advanced index) should lead to increased energy interaction between the Troposphere and Stratosphere in the form of latent heat release. Once High Pressure takes over in Siberia and temps gradually warm, the melting process should send "heat" into the Stratosphere and possibly begin the process toward a SSWE. "

I guess my question/comment is: Did you read that somewhere? I'm only asking because melting is an endothermic process, meaning that it takes energy from the atmosphere in order "give" it to the molecules and get enough energy to break the lattice structure of the bonds created during freezing. Latent heating occurs from the release of heat energy when water decreases its energy state (i.e. from vapor to liquid, or liquid to solid). My understanding of how these vertical waves propagate is that with anomalous snow cover, there is an anomalous albedo (reflectivity of Earth's surface), which allows ~90% of the sun's energy to be reflected back into the atmosphere (assuming fresh snowpack). Because this energy is now being reflected back into the atmosphere, essentially you now have 1.9x the amount of solar energy being input to the atmosphere (the normal energy from the sun's incoming rays at the top of the atmosphere, plus the 90% now being reflected back into the bottom of the atmosphere). This energy gets absorbed and then re-emitted by the lower levels in both directions (some back toward the surface, and some further upward). As this process continues, eventually you end up warming the column, but the effects are most notable in the Stratosphere because it is getting ALL of the energy that it normally would from the sun, but now also additional ANOMALOUS input from below. I think this is why we experience the lag from the snow cover to the SSW phenomenon, because this heat propagation takes time to build up to the point that it can begin to significantly warm the Stratosphere. But I'm curious as to your thoughts on this, because I honestly haven't done too much with the Stratosphere....

rb924119 wrote:Again, well done Frank!! I completely agree with your assessment (not surprisingly lol), but I do have two questions (or comments):

1. Where do you get your Stratosphere graphics from? The best I can find is Accuweather's Zonal Mean Zonal Wind at the 10 hPa level lol

2. Regarding your discussion on vertical wave propagation, specifically the causes of the SSW's, you mention:

"...the above normal Eurasian SAI (snow advanced index) should lead to increased energy interaction between the Troposphere and Stratosphere in the form of latent heat release. Once High Pressure takes over in Siberia and temps gradually warm, the melting process should send "heat" into the Stratosphere and possibly begin the process toward a SSWE. "

I guess my question/comment is: Did you read that somewhere? I'm only asking because melting is an endothermic process, meaning that it takes energy from the atmosphere in order "give" it to the molecules and get enough energy to break the lattice structure of the bonds created during freezing. Latent heating occurs from the release of heat energy when water decreases its energy state (i.e. from vapor to liquid, or liquid to solid). My understanding of how these vertical waves propagate is that with anomalous snow cover, there is an anomalous albedo (reflectivity of Earth's surface), which allows ~90% of the sun's energy to be reflected back into the atmosphere (assuming fresh snowpack). Because this energy is now being reflected back into the atmosphere, essentially you now have 1.9x the amount of solar energy being input to the atmosphere (the normal energy from the sun's incoming rays at the top of the atmosphere, plus the 90% now being reflected back into the bottom of the atmosphere). This energy gets absorbed and then re-emitted by the lower levels in both directions (some back toward the surface, and some further upward). As this process continues, eventually you end up warming the column, but the effects are most notable in the Stratosphere because it is getting ALL of the energy that it normally would from the sun, but now also additional ANOMALOUS input from below. I think this is why we experience the lag from the snow cover to the SSW phenomenon, because this heat propagation takes time to build up to the point that it can begin to significantly warm the Stratosphere. But I'm curious as to your thoughts on this, because I honestly haven't done too much with the Stratosphere....

I have all types of cool Strat links. I plan on putting together something in the Weather Education thread soon. But here are a few:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/
http://www.frenchscotpilotweather.com/#!temperatures-strat/c1b1e
http://www.frenchscotpilotweather.com/#!winds-fluxes--waves/c1azb
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

To your 2nd point, you're likely correct and I am off. My attempt with these blogs is to put them in lingo the average person can understand, but the risk in doing that is incorrectly explaining how certain processes work. Basically by "melting" I mean the process you just explained. Let's be honest...snow is probably not going to melt in Siberia anytime soon

frank here are the new weekly enso numbers...

Weekly ENSO region numbers 1+2: +2.4C, 3: +3.0C, 3.4: +3.0C, 4: +1.8C

From this:

18NOV2015 2.1 3.0 3.1 1.8
so warming in 1.2 and status quo in the rest of the regions

algae888 wrote:frank here are the new weekly enso numbers...

Weekly ENSO region numbers 1+2: +2.4C, 3: +3.0C, 3.4: +3.0C, 4: +1.8C

From this:

18NOV2015 2.1 3.0 3.1 1.8
so warming in 1.2 and status quo in the rest of the regions

Not surprising. There was a minor warming event that took place in the eastern Nino regions last week. With easterlies taking over, we should see it come down this week.

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Again, well done Frank!! I completely agree with your assessment (not surprisingly lol), but I do have two questions (or comments):

1. Where do you get your Stratosphere graphics from? The best I can find is Accuweather's Zonal Mean Zonal Wind at the 10 hPa level lol

2. Regarding your discussion on vertical wave propagation, specifically the causes of the SSW's, you mention:

"...the above normal Eurasian SAI (snow advanced index) should lead to increased energy interaction between the Troposphere and Stratosphere in the form of latent heat release. Once High Pressure takes over in Siberia and temps gradually warm, the melting process should send "heat" into the Stratosphere and possibly begin the process toward a SSWE. "

I guess my question/comment is: Did you read that somewhere? I'm only asking because melting is an endothermic process, meaning that it takes energy from the atmosphere in order "give" it to the molecules and get enough energy to break the lattice structure of the bonds created during freezing. Latent heating occurs from the release of heat energy when water decreases its energy state (i.e. from vapor to liquid, or liquid to solid). My understanding of how these vertical waves propagate is that with anomalous snow cover, there is an anomalous albedo (reflectivity of Earth's surface), which allows ~90% of the sun's energy to be reflected back into the atmosphere (assuming fresh snowpack). Because this energy is now being reflected back into the atmosphere, essentially you now have 1.9x the amount of solar energy being input to the atmosphere (the normal energy from the sun's incoming rays at the top of the atmosphere, plus the 90% now being reflected back into the bottom of the atmosphere). This energy gets absorbed and then re-emitted by the lower levels in both directions (some back toward the surface, and some further upward). As this process continues, eventually you end up warming the column, but the effects are most notable in the Stratosphere because it is getting ALL of the energy that it normally would from the sun, but now also additional ANOMALOUS input from below. I think this is why we experience the lag from the snow cover to the SSW phenomenon, because this heat propagation takes time to build up to the point that it can begin to significantly warm the Stratosphere. But I'm curious as to your thoughts on this, because I honestly haven't done too much with the Stratosphere....

I have all types of cool Strat links. I plan on putting together something in the Weather Education thread soon. But here are a few:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/
http://www.frenchscotpilotweather.com/#!temperatures-strat/c1b1e
http://www.frenchscotpilotweather.com/#!winds-fluxes--waves/c1azb
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

To your 2nd point, you're likely correct and I am off. My attempt with these blogs is to put them in lingo the average person can understand, but the risk in doing that is incorrectly explaining how certain processes work. Basically by "melting" I mean the process you just explained. Let's be honest...snow is probably not going to melt in Siberia anytime soon    

Oh cool!! Thanks!! And ok haha I was just curious if you found different information, that's all lol

Great read Frank and Rb as well it's amazing the knowledge you guys have.

I agree nice job guys. Still hoping. Not sure where mugs posted about his trip from dc but I got him beat 3 hrs to go 75 miles back to NY from ct no stops was aweful.