12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Good Morning all,

Today's Mo Mo will look at our weather over the next two weeks. Plus, a first look at possible weather around Christmas.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/12/127-mo-mo-blog-december-warmth.html

Frank I noted the GFS and Euro have a huge difference in a wind event with next mon/tues, GFS no big deal while Euro has been fairly consistent on gusts in the 50-60 mph range even inland for a period and even 35-45 for a fairly extended period. What is your reasoning for not buying into it at this time? Latest Euro has us under tight isobars with 988mb line over the area, that would seem to me to cause winds of that magnitude. But as I said the GFS is nowhere near as strong with the storm. Does it have to do with wether or not the convection can mix those winds down to the surface?

jmanley32 wrote:Frank I noted the GFS and Euro have a huge difference in a wind event with next mon/tues, GFS no big deal while Euro has been fairly consistent on gusts in the 50-60 mph range even inland for a period and even 35-45 for a fairly extended period.  What is your reasoning for not buying into it at this time?  Latest Euro has us under tight isobars with 988mb line over the area, that would seem to me to cause winds of that magnitude.  But as I said the GFS is nowhere near as strong with the storm.  Does it have to do with wether or not the convection can mix those winds down to the surface?

How often do high winds come to fruition for our area? This event will depend on the placement of the High and timing with the front. If the storm cuts too far west, there won't be enough of a gradient to promote high winds.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Frank I noted the GFS and Euro have a huge difference in a wind event with next mon/tues, GFS no big deal while Euro has been fairly consistent on gusts in the 50-60 mph range even inland for a period and even 35-45 for a fairly extended period.  What is your reasoning for not buying into it at this time?  Latest Euro has us under tight isobars with 988mb line over the area, that would seem to me to cause winds of that magnitude.  But as I said the GFS is nowhere near as strong with the storm.  Does it have to do with wether or not the convection can mix those winds down to the surface?

How often do high winds come to fruition for our area? This event will depend on the placement of the High and timing with the front. If the storm cuts too far west, there won't be enough of a gradient to promote high winds.

Not very often, I knew that was just curious if you had a specific reason I could learn further from. Yeah I get that if it cuts far enough west it will be nothing but rain. Euro is showing it further east that much be why it shows the winds it does, but I personally also hold a high standard to the Euro, has it been wrong especially on winds yeah it has.

Young Skywalker, look here:

The EURO deepens the surface low sub 970mb once it reaches Canada. The 500mb vort closes off over western PA - you can see the spin in western PA in the image below. These two features really enhance pressure gradients ahead of the front. That's where the strong winds come from.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Frank I noted the GFS and Euro have a huge difference in a wind event with next mon/tues, GFS no big deal while Euro has been fairly consistent on gusts in the 50-60 mph range even inland for a period and even 35-45 for a fairly extended period.  What is your reasoning for not buying into it at this time?  Latest Euro has us under tight isobars with 988mb line over the area, that would seem to me to cause winds of that magnitude.  But as I said the GFS is nowhere near as strong with the storm.  Does it have to do with wether or not the convection can mix those winds down to the surface?

How often do high winds come to fruition for our area? This event will depend on the placement of the High and timing with the front. If the storm cuts too far west, there won't be enough of a gradient to promote high winds.

Not very often, I knew that was just curious if you had a specific reason I could learn further from.  Yeah I get that if it cuts far enough west it will be nothing but rain.  Euro is showing it further east that much be why it shows the winds it does, but I personally also hold a high standard to the Euro, has it been wrong especially on winds yeah it has.

Guidance, especially lower resolution global models, tend to calculate friction poorly, especially at 10m above the surface. Wind verification should theoretically be much higher over water than land masses due to this flaw. You also need to take into account regional geographical features that can increase/decrease velocity, which is hard to account for in when constructing physics for models.

The gfs doesn't have a closed 500mb vort. Just a strong but rather strung out vorticity embedded in a weak trough



The surface low actually develops off the coast so it's not a cutter. You're best bet of high winds comes if the EURO comes to fruition with a sub 970mb cutting to our west. Wind has a better chance of translating to the surface mainly due to 500mb.

This is one of those storms that popped out of nowhere and I feel like these are always the ones that sneak up and produce for our area. Watch it closely and how it trends.

Frank_Wx wrote:Young Skywalker, look here:

The EURO deepens the surface low sub 970mb once it reaches Canada. The 500mb vort closes off over western PA - you can see the spin in western PA in the image below. These two features really enhance pressure gradients ahead of the front. That's where the strong winds come from.

Young? LOL I am about 12 years older than you I should be obi-wan but your expertise superceeds me by eyons. Anyways ya I saw thoe map, thats why I said verbatim the Euro has a nasty setup, interesting what ace said too about the friction. It is interesting to see if the GFS or Euro wins out. GFS brings a lot more precip.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is one of those storms that popped out of nowhere and I feel like these are always the ones that sneak up and produce for our area. Watch it closely and how it trends.

Yep, remember a few years ago after halloween we had that high wind storm, different time of year but it does happen. Not saying it will but batten down those decorations in case if this still showing on Euro come the weekend, and if GFS trends to Euro. This beside, I would much rather be talking about snow as I am sure we all would, cannot wait till things hopefully start to change at the end of the month or sooner.