NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Go down

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Empty 12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 07, 2015 7:30 am

Good Morning all,

Today's Mo Mo will look at our weather over the next two weeks. Plus, a first look at possible weather around Christmas.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/12/127-mo-mo-blog-december-warmth.html



_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Empty Re: 12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 07, 2015 8:40 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Good Morning all,

Today's Mo Mo will look at our weather over the next two weeks. Plus, a first look at possible weather around Christmas.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/12/127-mo-mo-blog-december-warmth.html



Thanks, Frank, for the analysis and the awesome Sinatra song!

OK, so December looks so-so, but it was that way last year and everything shifted gears mid January for the better.Let's hope!!!!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Empty Re: 12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 07, 2015 5:15 pm

Frank I noted the GFS and Euro have a huge difference in a wind event with next mon/tues, GFS no big deal while Euro has been fairly consistent on gusts in the 50-60 mph range even inland for a period and even 35-45 for a fairly extended period. What is your reasoning for not buying into it at this time? Latest Euro has us under tight isobars with 988mb line over the area, that would seem to me to cause winds of that magnitude. But as I said the GFS is nowhere near as strong with the storm. Does it have to do with wether or not the convection can mix those winds down to the surface?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Empty Re: 12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 07, 2015 6:07 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank I noted the GFS and Euro have a huge difference in a wind event with next mon/tues, GFS no big deal while Euro has been fairly consistent on gusts in the 50-60 mph range even inland for a period and even 35-45 for a fairly extended period.  What is your reasoning for not buying into it at this time?  Latest Euro has us under tight isobars with 988mb line over the area, that would seem to me to cause winds of that magnitude.  But as I said the GFS is nowhere near as strong with the storm.  Does it have to do with wether or not the convection can mix those winds down to the surface?

How often do high winds come to fruition for our area? This event will depend on the placement of the High and timing with the front. If the storm cuts too far west, there won't be enough of a gradient to promote high winds.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Empty Re: 12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 07, 2015 7:07 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Frank I noted the GFS and Euro have a huge difference in a wind event with next mon/tues, GFS no big deal while Euro has been fairly consistent on gusts in the 50-60 mph range even inland for a period and even 35-45 for a fairly extended period.  What is your reasoning for not buying into it at this time?  Latest Euro has us under tight isobars with 988mb line over the area, that would seem to me to cause winds of that magnitude.  But as I said the GFS is nowhere near as strong with the storm.  Does it have to do with wether or not the convection can mix those winds down to the surface?

How often do high winds come to fruition for our area? This event will depend on the placement of the High and timing with the front. If the storm cuts too far west, there won't be enough of a gradient to promote high winds.

Not very often, I knew that was just curious if you had a specific reason I could learn further from. Yeah I get that if it cuts far enough west it will be nothing but rain. Euro is showing it further east that much be why it shows the winds it does, but I personally also hold a high standard to the Euro, has it been wrong especially on winds yeah it has.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Empty Re: 12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 07, 2015 7:25 pm

Young Skywalker, look here:

The EURO deepens the surface low sub 970mb once it reaches Canada. The 500mb vort closes off over western PA - you can see the spin in western PA in the image below. These two features really enhance pressure gradients ahead of the front. That's where the strong winds come from.

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Ecmwf_qpf_th500_ma_30
12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Ecmwf_uv10g_ma_30

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Empty Re: 12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Post by Quietace Mon Dec 07, 2015 7:29 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Frank I noted the GFS and Euro have a huge difference in a wind event with next mon/tues, GFS no big deal while Euro has been fairly consistent on gusts in the 50-60 mph range even inland for a period and even 35-45 for a fairly extended period.  What is your reasoning for not buying into it at this time?  Latest Euro has us under tight isobars with 988mb line over the area, that would seem to me to cause winds of that magnitude.  But as I said the GFS is nowhere near as strong with the storm.  Does it have to do with wether or not the convection can mix those winds down to the surface?

How often do high winds come to fruition for our area? This event will depend on the placement of the High and timing with the front. If the storm cuts too far west, there won't be enough of a gradient to promote high winds.

Not very often, I knew that was just curious if you had a specific reason I could learn further from.  Yeah I get that if it cuts far enough west it will be nothing but rain.  Euro is showing it further east that much be why it shows the winds it does, but I personally also hold a high standard to the Euro, has it been wrong especially on winds yeah it has.
Guidance, especially lower resolution global models, tend to calculate friction poorly, especially at 10m above the surface. Wind verification should theoretically be much higher over water than land masses due to this flaw. You also need to take into account regional geographical features that can increase/decrease velocity, which is hard to account for in when constructing physics for models.


Last edited by Quietace on Mon Dec 07, 2015 7:33 pm; edited 2 times in total

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Empty Re: 12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 07, 2015 7:30 pm

The gfs doesn't have a closed 500mb vort. Just a strong but rather strung out vorticity embedded in a weak trough

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Gfs_z500_vort_eus_29

The surface low actually develops off the coast so it's not a cutter. You're best bet of high winds comes if the EURO comes to fruition with a sub 970mb cutting to our west. Wind has a better chance of translating to the surface mainly due to 500mb.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20007
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Empty Re: 12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Dec 07, 2015 8:26 pm

This is one of those storms that popped out of nowhere and I feel like these are always the ones that sneak up and produce for our area. Watch it closely and how it trends.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Empty Re: 12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 07, 2015 9:01 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Young Skywalker, look here:

The EURO deepens the surface low sub 970mb once it reaches Canada. The 500mb vort closes off over western PA - you can see the spin in western PA in the image below. These two features really enhance pressure gradients ahead of the front. That's where the strong winds come from.

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Ecmwf_qpf_th500_ma_30
12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Ecmwf_uv10g_ma_30

Young? LOL I am about 12 years older than you I should be obi-wan but your expertise superceeds me by eyons. Anyways ya I saw thoe map, thats why I said verbatim the Euro has a nasty setup, interesting what ace said too about the friction. It is interesting to see if the GFS or Euro wins out. GFS brings a lot more precip.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Empty Re: 12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 07, 2015 9:05 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is one of those storms that popped out of nowhere and I feel like these are always the ones that sneak up and produce for our area. Watch it closely and how it trends.

Yep, remember a few years ago after halloween we had that high wind storm, different time of year but it does happen. Not saying it will but batten down those decorations in case if this still showing on Euro come the weekend, and if GFS trends to Euro. This beside, I would much rather be talking about snow as I am sure we all would, cannot wait till things hopefully start to change at the end of the month or sooner.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17946
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast Empty Re: 12/7 Mo Mo Blog: December Warmth & Christmas Forecast

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum