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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:15 pm

Hello everyone,

Please click the link to read my latest blog. I take a look at how the upcoming pattern COULD move up the timeline to a full-scale pattern change. As long as the -NAO/-AO/-EPO trifecta comes to fruition, we will be in rock and roll mode by mid-month in route to tracking our first widespread snow event of the season. The time frame I especially like is January 16th-23rd.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2016/01/full-scale-pattern-change-possible.html

Best,

Frank

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:18 pm

By the way, the Stratosphere will play a large role in how all of this comes together. If I went into the Stratospheric influence then the blog would be double the size and I am about ready to pass out. I saw Amugs posted Isotherm's thought's in the long range thread. He does an EXCELLENT job of describing how the Stratosphere is currently and forecasted to behave. I will have a brief write up about the Strat maybe tomorrow or Friday.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:28 pm

This 3-D animation of the Stratosphere was put together by Recretos, a Met who specializes in the Stratosphere. It shows how the Polar Vortex structure changes as warming propagates from the lower to higher levels. Pretty amazing!


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Post by amugs Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:35 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:By the way, the Stratosphere will play a large role in how all of this comes together. If I went into the Stratospheric influence then the blog would be double the size and I am about ready to pass out. I saw Amugs posted Isotherm's thought's in the long range thread. He does an EXCELLENT job of describing how the Stratosphere is currently and forecasted to behave. I will have a brief write up about the Strat maybe tomorrow or Friday.


Great post as ALWAYS and pminmg with Tom (ISOTHERM) he has a good sense of confidence that we split an das he said it will happen quick and the pattern does as well once teh strat does we go rock n roll, boom, booyah etc. Needs a couple more runs to see where things are at and all remember teh PV is off teh charts cold - IF (when) that bad boy splits just think of how all that cold air filters down what things will be like - MADONNE!!

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:44 pm

Short notice get together mid-month?

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:49 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Short notice get together mid-month?

Yes, once the Godzilla shows up on the models sometime between 18th-24th Wink


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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:53 pm

Jan 22nd is a lock Wink

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:53 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:Short notice get together mid-month?

Yes, once the Godzilla shows up on the models sometime between 18th-24th Wink


The 16th and 23rd are Saturdays

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Post by snow247 Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:02 pm

Good write up, Frank.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:37 pm

Thank you! 00z GFS tonight shows what a blocking pattern is capable of. 3-4 snow chances between 13th-25th

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:53 pm

Thank you Frank and Goodnight!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:34 am

I go on some other forumscas a lurker not like here this is my home lol. I read and some say no snow chances on Euro run. That the blocking isn't where it needs to be. I mean it's crazy
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Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:38 am

Excellent write up frank I can't wait till we get to the middle to late month of Jan thank you

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 07, 2016 7:59 am

The 22nd is an absolute no go for me at a get together. I'll make any other date if we have one.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:27 am

syosnow94 wrote:The 22nd is an absolute no go for me at a get together.  I'll make any other date if we have one.

Don't worry James 22nd will be no good for anyone as this is the day I believe our first real Godzilla hits. I think that Mostly because that's the day I predicted at the last GTG.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:41 am

@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:The 22nd is an absolute no go for me at a get together.  I'll make any other date if we have one.

Don't worry James 22nd will be no good for anyone as this is the day I believe our first real Godzilla hits.  I think that Mostly because that's the day I predicted at the last GTG.

How about next Friday the 16th. Somewhere on LI or the Lower Hudson Valley. I know a couple of good spots and I'm sure Doc and CP know even more. Doc there was a couple of good looking spots in those towns along the Ramopo river that runs parallel to the Thruway. Right on the NJ border which is convenient for those Jersey folks too.

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Post by chief7 Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:09 am

Oh boy Franks talking dirty nice job brother keep up the great work

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