Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

You're correct, and I know nothing other than every strong El Niño season has been memorably bad.

Go Yanks!!!

[weatherwatchermom]

More April snow yeaahhhhhh!!!

and cold

if this comes true, I am going to freeze my a.. off at the baseball snack bar(5 hour duty) on Sunday!!

[Frank_Wx]

In the April thread I showed why it will get cold this weekend. Basically the PV is diving southward in response to the high latitude ridging over Canada and the EPO region. 

The GEFS insist the NAO will go very negative next week. A negative NAO in the spring and summer months usually points to warmer weather along the east coast. 

[amugs]

More April snow yeaahhhhhh!!!

and cold

if this comes true, I am going to freeze my a.. off at the baseball snack bar(5 hour duty) on Sunday!!

BUNDLE UP MOMMY!!! AND BRING A HOT ONE WITH A LITTLE SUMTIN SUMTIN TO KEEP YOU WARM!!

HIGHS ABOUT LOW TO MID 40'S
HOPEFULLY IT IS SUNNY TO HELP IF IN THE SHADE YIKEEES!!

[amugs]

Look what NOAA is saying for this summer - OH boy clean the a/c filters and charge up the freon in it cause ....

[algae888]

all models showing inv trough for Saturday. some south some right over us.

[algae888]

[algae888]

eps from 00z

[Math23x7]

An interesting thing to note about the 12Z CMC for Saturday PM is that if the low can get just a bit further west and just a bit colder, we may have ourselves something to track for the weekend.

[algae888]

cmc

[amugs]

12Z EUO showing light to mod snow for the NYC metro area from hours 78-87 as per SV maps verbatim and lets keep in mind its teh euro which has been ugatz awful lately - except for when it is showing a cutter! Surface temps need to be 32 or less fro stickage.

[algae888]

Latest values:
Nino 1.2: +1.5 (+0.6)
Nino 3: +1.6 (+0.2)
Nino 3.4: +1.5 (-)
Nino 4: +1.1 (-0.1
Euro now has only weak la-nina. 95-96 all over again.

[algae888]

it will not be getting warm anytime soon. that ull over the northeast could be there for days. april may end being first below normal month in over a year.

cp I 100% agree. let winter be cold and summer hot. 70 degree days in dec and march suck. after a normal winter that first 70* day, usually in april, feels great. this winter took that from us. to many extremes now. hopefully we can get some normal weather now that this super nino is on it's last legs.

[amugs]

Latest values:
Nino 1.2: +1.5 (+0.6)
Nino 3: +1.6 (+0.2)
Nino 3.4: +1.5 (-)
Nino 4: +1.1 (-0.1
Euro now has only weak la-nina. 95-96 all over again.

AL we can only hope and pray - scrips is saying a mod to strong Nina - pullback - rubber band to what the Nino was - only time will tell.
Keep that + PDO until next March and then we can say go from there - only 8 more months away!!

[algae888]

Latest values:
Nino 1.2: +1.5 (+0.6)
Nino 3: +1.6 (+0.2)
Nino 3.4: +1.5 (-)
Nino 4: +1.1 (-0.1
Euro now has only weak la-nina. 95-96 all over again.

AL we can only hope and pray - scrips is saying a mod to strong Nina - pullback - rubber band to what the Nino was - only time will tell.
Keep that + PDO until next March and then we can say go from there - only 8 more months away!!

Mugs While most of guidance has a strong or moderate la nina I'm hearing the euro is a weak one. can you confirm. A weak La Nina coming off this super El Nino could be a lot of fun next year. Even read where the subtropical jet could still be active as it takes some time for the El Nino to lose its influence in the atmosphere

[algae888]

Also hurricane season and a hot summer are in question to me at this point. The reasoning for a active hurricane season and hot summer is that we will be in a moderate or strong la nina. La Nina is not happening this summer and I can say that with almost absolute certainty. To be officially considered a La Nina the Pacific would have to be -.5 Celsius for 3 continuous months. We are already into early April and still in a moderate El Nino. in my opinion the earliest we will see a la nina is September. Any thoughts

[sroc4]

Also hurricane season and a hot summer are in question to me at this point. The reasoning for a active hurricane season and hot summer is that we will be in a moderate or strong la nina. La Nina is not happening this summer and I can say that with almost absolute certainty. To be officially considered a La Nina the Pacific would have to be -.5 Celsius for 3 continuous months. We are already into early April and still in a moderate El Nino. in my opinion the earliest we will see a la nina is September. Any thoughts

Most of last winter the debate of when to characterize a weak El Nino vs a La Nada.  Then if you go back to spring of last year modeling was showing the super Nino for summer into early fall.  Instead it backed off and ended up coming on full bore by Fall into Winter months.  Next recall modeling in the the late fall and early winter depicting this drastic and rapid decline of the Nino this winter when in fact it kept getting delayed and delayed ultimately by several months.  I personally think just like the delay in the onset of the Nino as well as the decline, the reflexive mod- strong La Nina being depicted by some modeling will end up being delayed longer than we think in a similar fashion.    My guess on La Nina would be we do in fact see the reflexive mod- strong La Nina but not until after next winter season.  Meaning that we could be either hanging on to a weak Nino/La Nada/ or weak Nina for the fall and winter months.  Just my two cents.

Mikey if you are reading this please comit to memory the time and date so it can be recalled on this date next year after EVERYONE has experienced record snowfall amounts as we approach the beginings of a mod- strong Nina heading into the spring and summer months next year.  

[weatherwatchermom]

interesting article:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/cold-blob-to-be-wildcard-la-nina-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-2016/56491288

[Frank_Wx]

Here's a chart of the coolest summers (J-Ju-A) on record. These are the top 10. You have to go all the way back to 1927 to just get to #10. That's a bit disconcerting from a global warming POV, but data nearly a century old could be hard to believe too. Anyway, I still plan on having a Summer Outlook released late this month or early May. This summer won't be anywhere close to this cold.

[Math23x7]

Here's a chart of the coolest summers (J-Ju-A) on record. These are the top 10. You have to go all the way back to 1927 to just get to #10. That's a bit disconcerting from a global warming POV, but data nearly a century old could be hard to believe too. Anyway, I still plan on having a Summer Outlook released late this month or early May. This summer won't be anywhere close to this cold.

Using the monthly temperature means going back to 1869, I put in the weighted combined June-July temperatures (Slightly more weight on July since it has 31 days whereas June has 30 days).  June-July 2009 was the 4th coolest on record.  Top 10 in this category:

T-1. 1903: 69.5
T-1. 1881: 69.5
   3. 1902: 69.8
   4. 2009: 70.1
   5. 1871: 70.3
   6. 1914: 70.5
   7. 1916: 70.6
   8. 1927: 70.7
   9. 1888: 70.8
 10. 1893: 70.9

I remember how depressing 2009 was (especially in June when it was practically rain everyday).  Fortunately, a warm August helped to ease the pain.

[Frank_Wx]

I remember 2009. The Yankees were kicking arse

[Math23x7]

I remember 2009. The Yankees were kicking arse

That and the Mets floundering made it even worse (and the fact that they both came together on 6/12/09 when Luis Castillo dropped the ball at Yankee Stadium and I threw the remote across the room in disgust).  Of course, now we're talking banter in the long range thread so let me get back on topic:

August 3rd-5th, 2009 me and my family took a trip out to Montauk.  After two months of not so summery weather, it was the French Riviera.  Mid to upper 70s with abundant sunshine out there made it a blast of a trip (except for the fact that in one of those games I had to watch K-Rod blow a win for Johan Santana and then lose it in extra innings (Albert Pujols ended up hitting a grand slam for the Cardinals at Citi Field in the 10th inning) which put a damper on the occasion.  Anyway, back to Long Range:

I would look forward to the upcoming pattern if it comes to fruition.

[amugs]

This is going to be interesting going forward with 1.2 cooling and 3.4 and 4 holding onto warmth


PDO is at its greatest since 1941

[Math23x7]

Also mugs, check out the Nino 1.2 Temperature anomaly map:

[weatherwatchermom]

Here's a chart of the coolest summers (J-Ju-A) on record. These are the top 10. You have to go all the way back to 1927 to just get to #10. That's a bit disconcerting from a global warming POV, but data nearly a century old could be hard to believe too. Anyway, I still plan on having a Summer Outlook released late this month or early May. This summer won't be anywhere close to this cold.

so are we thinking cooler summer?..hmm...2009 was the year we went up to Lake Champlain it was a cold summer...July 7th at Burton State Park was 38 degrees(the following year was the year we had that awful hot summer and July 7th was 105 degrees when we were in Ocean City MD on the boat) and the waters all thru Vermont were freezing..we used the heater on the boat that whole trip...even during the day...and this is the year we are traveling to Lake Champlain again... I can't wait to see you summer outlook Frank

[Math23x7]

Interestingly enough, 2009 was the last time it went below 60 degrees in Central Park in the month of July (7/8/09).

[amugs]

Also mugs, check out the Nino 1.2 Temperature anomaly map:

Mikey it i snuts ho wit crashed - 3 monmthe too late!!

check out todays readings - below 0!!


FELL OFF THE PROVERBIAL CLIFF - LIKE US SNOW WEENIES THIS WINTER!!!!! (WE JUMPED THOUGH!)

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