7/29-7/31 Possible Heavy Rain Event Disco/Obs.

Wow the whole area of rain just broke up, looks like most except far southern jersey and that spot in hudson valley into PA/NJ are not getting rain, unless that area way west rotates in but it looks like its going north.

I see, seems area is going to fill in latest GFS has 2-4 inch swatch right through NYC metro.

Two storms so far, .56 in the bucket, temp down to 71, 91% AND 29.68 R

By 2pm Saturday you can see rain is entering the Philly Metro on the GFS. Since these things usually move in quicker, I would move that up to around Noon. The morning should be dry but we'll see. It'll still be cloudy though.

For as dark as it got, here in northern Orange County, it has only spritzed. I think the storm will reach us after midnight

dry here in yonkers too. spc disco.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
A LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD TRACK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT...EITHER ALONG
COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST OFFSHORE...THIS OUTLOOK HAS
EXPANDED THE MARGINAL SEVERE-WEATHER RISK NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z FRIDAY ATTENDANT TO A FAST MOVING
LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSE. ASSOCIATED BELT OF 30-40 KT OF LOW-LEVEL
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR WILL SUPPORT
STRONG WIND PROFILES E OF THE COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW FROM THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY NEWD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS. MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW OF 50-60
KT SPREADS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT SUGGESTS A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SMALL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE MORNING
ACTIVITY AND OVER EASTERN VA ATTENDANT TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

dkodgis wrote:For as dark as it got, here in northern Orange County, it has only spritzed. I think the storm will reach us after midnight

nws reports parts of orange county got near 3 inches. you must been on the northern fringe.

Latest model runs showing the heaviest rain staying south of our area. The drought continues...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1037 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR READINGTON AND BRANCHBURG TOWNSHIPS IN HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES NEW JERSEY... LOCATION...READINGTON AND BRANCHBURG TOWNSHIPS IN HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTY NEW JERSEY DATE...JULY 25 2016 ESTIMATED TIME...512 PM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDS PATH LENGTH...3.49 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.58N / 74.73W ENDING LAT/LON...40.60N / 74.68W * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ..SUMMARY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR READINGTON AND BRANCHBURG TOWNSHIPS IN HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTY NEW JERSEY ON JULY 25 2016. SEVERAL UPROOTED TREES WERE NOTED JUST SOUTH OF FORTY OAKS ROAD WHERE THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN APPROXIMATELY ONE-QUARTER MILE EAST OF SOLBERG-HUNTERDON AIRPORT AT APPROXIMATELY 5:12 PM EST. THE STRONGEST DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED AS THE TORNADO CROSSED FORTY OAKS ROAD. NUMEROUS HARDWOOD AND SOFTWOOD PINE TREES WERE UPROOTED AND SNAPPED OFF AT THE TRUNK. THE TREES FELL IN A CONVERGENT PATTERN ALONG THE PATH OF THE TORNADO. MINOR DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED TO A RESIDENTIAL HOME WITH SHINGLES BLOWN OFF THE ROOF. THE TORNADO TRACKED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO SOMERSET COUNTY. AT THE TIME OF THE STORM SURVEY, A MAJORITY OF THE TREE DAMAGE FROM THE TORNADO WAS CLEANED UP IN A RESIDENTIAL COMMUNITY LOCATED ON PREAKNESS CIRCLE. HOWEVER, NUMEROUS PHOTOS OBTAINED FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND MEDIA REVEALED ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SEVERAL HARDWOOD TREES IN THE RESIDENTIAL COMMUNITY WERE UPROOTED AND SHEARED OFF. TWO HOMES SUSTAINED DAMAGE FROM THE TORNADO, INCLUDING SIDING THAT WAS TORN OFF AND A CHIMNEY THAT WAS RIPPED OFF ONE OF THE HOMES. A CAR THAT WAS PARKED ON THE STREET WAS BLOWN SEVERAL YARDS AWAY ON TO THE RESIDENCE FRONT LAWN AND INTO A NEARBY TREE. SEVERAL HARDWOOD TREES WERE UPROOTED IN A FORESTED AREA BETWEEN HARLAN SCHOOL ROAD AND COUNTY SQUIRE WAY AS THE TORNADO MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TORNADO EVENTUALLY LIFTED APPROXIMATELY SIX MINUTES AFTER TOUCHDOWN JUST NORTH OF ROUTE 22, BUT NOT BEFORE UPROOTING SEVERAL MORE TREES NEAR STATION ROAD. THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI. FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH. EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH. EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH. EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH. EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH. EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

KLEIN/MANNING/KOCH
CORRECTED EF RATING

torrential rain for the last hour didn't check gauge but has to be over an inch already. all reporting stations have had hardly any rain. looks to be very localized for the Bronx and lower Westchester atm.

71 * with mod rain

Not much rain here overnight and this morning .32 in the bucket. For the month at 7.26 which I would think is above average.

Only .45" here

HOLY CROW, we up here in Orange County got more precip than areas south of us!!!!! Wish I could wake up CP from his Summer hibernation,LOL.

.89 in the bucket so far, 68.1 degrees 94%, 29.63 and falling. Cloudy, no wind.

I live about a mile from Sullivan County as the crow flies and I am beginning to think the Tooth Fairy lives up here about four miles above I-84. Some kind of magic is controlling the weather. My scientific water gauge is my dog's kiddie splash pool and if I took a tiny juice glass and filled it with water only to empty it into the pool, that is how much rain we got-just a spritz. Just a few teaspoons of water. Unbelievable. No snow last winter, no rain last night to this morning.

Getting heavy rain now and it's barely moving we may get a couple inches here

Basically over here. Def nothimg to write home about. I don't know how much we got but Def no crazy flooding.

algae888 wrote:torrential rain for the last hour didn't check gauge but has to be over an inch already. all reporting stations have had hardly any rain. looks to be very localized for the Bronx and lower Westchester atm.

Botanical Garden has 1.32"
That downpour seems like the bulk of the rain, been mostly light since then.

Park and LGA right around 1"

1.2" here in NNJ Bergen County. Weekend looks crappy....hit and miss rain and tstorms.

Final total .93.Way below the 2 to 4 inches NWS had up. Now 84.7, 59% humidity.Gorgeous sunny day. Light winds.

Sell yesterday we got an inch and a half and today, forget about ...torrential...so I eat my words from Friday. The kiddie pool is almost full and I expect if it keeps raining like this through the evening and night and into tomorrow morning, I would be surprised if there were no flooding.

It has been pouring for almost 35 mins and the cell is moving very slowly to the sound looks like upper queens is next

Totals for me as of 7:15 pm Sunday
1.16" Friday
.83" Saturday
.17" Sunday

We really didn't have much today, the occasional shower, that's all. Closing in on 6" for the month though.

Looks like another strong cell  is ready to cross through Upper Manhattan the Bronx and lower Westchester .for now rain has stopped cloudy with lighting in  the background

just got a flash flood warning in effect for Upper Manhattan parts of Jersey the Bronx on Westchester and queens until 12:30 tonight

Got another .33" here the last hour or so, really not worthy of a flash flood warning...

Power outages and flooding in Wayne. In areas that normally don't flood. Hopefully the cell in Pa misses us.

Amazing how localized the rain is...