Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

May I ask a question regarding storm tracks with tropical storm / hurricane tracks , when they are coming up the coast do they usually follow projective paths ?

roccuweather wrote:Just did an observation at high tide on the beach in Bradley Beach.  Strong N/NE winds (a clear shift from this afternoon).  Wave heights are only a few feet but the ocean was relentless.  The one thing that stood out was that the water reached a good 30 feet further into the beach than it usually does at high tide, maybe more.  It doesn't matter much here in Bradley, but if this is just the start of it and it's going to get worse, the narrower barrier beaches could be in real trouble.  Skies were clear.

Thanks for the beach observation roccu and this was not suppose to ramp up till morning for NJ shores. The complacency is the part of the folks thinking was going to be another Sandy which it is not and no ONE ever said it would be Sandy but coastal flooding could be comparable in some locals.

NAM delayed to due analysis issues

I was wondering why the NAM hasn't started yet.

578
NOUS42 KWNO 040210
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0209Z SUN SEP 04 2016

THE 00Z NAM FORECAST IS DELAYED DUE TO ISSUES RUNNING THE
FORECAST JOB SUCCESSFULLY. PRODUCTION ANALYSTS ARE LOOKING INTO
THE NATURE OF THE FAILURES ATTM.

READY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Talk about a pasta bowl- linguine or angel hair here?

snow247 wrote:I was wondering why the NAM hasn't started yet.

578
NOUS42 KWNO 040210
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0209Z SUN SEP 04 2016

THE 00Z NAM FORECAST IS DELAYED DUE TO ISSUES RUNNING THE
FORECAST JOB SUCCESSFULLY. PRODUCTION ANALYSTS ARE LOOKING INTO
THE NATURE OF THE FAILURES ATTM.

READY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

of course, why would we expect the models to even run now lol

Artechmetals wrote:May I ask a question regarding storm tracks with tropical storm / hurricane tracks , when they are coming up the coast do they usually follow projective paths ?

Art absolutely ask . What we have is a massive Bermuda High (BH)Pressure system that is sitting out over the Middle of teh Atlantic - some call it a South east Ridge (SE) or an Azores high or a Hadley Cell or even a Western Atlantic Ridge (WAR). So where it sets up will help the trajectory of the tropical cyclones. Now there ar eoterh factors that come into play such as troughs and other HP systems over the East Coast as they steer these storms.
Here is a simple depiction of the BH and trop cyclone





Here is a wxbell map that shows the probability of trop cyclone paths



I hope this help answer your question

I know what the models show, but man looking at the radar and satellite this thing looks like it's falling apart and continuing to drift away. I know that may change overnight but it sure doesn't have its act together right now. I'm thinking I should have waited until tomorrow AM to leave the shore.

east

damn everything is going east!!!

Yes got it thanks mugs !

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12


Its rolling east takes a dip south then east.

That's not even ENE that looks due East with an ESE wobble
Toward the end..

algae888 wrote:east

I don't buy it. Not one bit. She's already on the verge of getting captured...

SoulSingMG wrote:

algae888 wrote:east

I don't buy it. Not one bit. She's already on the verge of getting captured...

SREFs coming in with more realistic east track and fasfer movement, knew this trend trend was coming. No storm sits days over our coast and retrogrades right next to/over us.

amugs wrote:Talk about a pasta bowl- linguine or angel hair here?

More like rotini and out to sea-ni.

SoulSingMG wrote:

algae888 wrote:east

I don't buy it. Not one bit. She's already on the verge of getting captured...

seems like everyone else feels its pretty much a done deal.

Out to sea. Take a boat if u wanna see anything from hermine

i myself am pretty much ready to throw in the towel as this has been more than frustrating. what 3 weeks now?

jmanley32 wrote:i myself am pretty much ready to throw in the towel as this has been more than frustrating. what 3 weeks now?

It aint over till its over.................

Joe Snow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:i myself am pretty much ready to throw in the towel as this has been more than frustrating. what 3 weeks now?

It aint over till its over.................

well in the past 5 min many have decided its done.

i will say 11pm nhc did not change much.

is there anyway to see this possible capture unfold?

Is the GFS Running?

rgem way east so far and weaker.
18z

00z

algae888 wrote:rgem way east so far and weaker.
18z

00z

Hours 42-48 will make you rethink that....

Woah 980mb right next coast. Msybe it's not over. That's a big change from 1000mb!