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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 6 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Watch sattelite loo, in last few frames it almost looks NE, someone I read on another board said the eye would rotate around and then make the turn, I never heard of that but that could be what its doing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

Tropical cyclones do not make "right" turns. He went south about an hour ago, then east, now northeast, then he will turn north and maybe northwest. Once he turns north, he should continue forward motion through next week. They flow counter clockwise.

Gotcha, makes sense.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:43 pm

So if he goes due North East coast may be spared
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:48 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:So if he goes due North East coast may be spared

He will not go due NE. Either N or NW. Likely NNW. Will alternate between the two directions.

Again, DOES HE GET TO 75L? To me, that is the key.

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 6 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:52 pm


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Post by amugs Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:08 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 6 Gefs_AL14_2016100112

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:05 pm

5pm update: Winds back up to 150mph. Matthew currently drifting to the NW at 3mph.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:05 pm

When does matthew need to pass 75 as nhc 5pm cone has him passing 75 into the bahamas.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:07 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:5pm update: Winds back up to 150mph. Matthew currently drifting to the NW at 3mph.
ahh the turn boy that's go b a nail biting crawl to 75 lol. I'm assuming he will b puking up dome forward speed?
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:12 pm



Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25
inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:14 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:5pm update: Winds back up to 150mph. Matthew currently drifting to the NW at 3mph.
ahh the turn boy that's go b a nail biting crawl to 75 lol. I'm assuming he will b puking up dome forward speed?
We're all going to be on pins and needles watching that NW drift to see if it makes it to the 75 latitude threshold. Got to go folks. Going to the Redbulls game. Check back with you all later.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:17 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:When does matthew need to pass 75 as nhc 5pm cone has him passing 75 into the bahamas.

Does not matter. As long as he does, he has a chance to impact the east coast. If he stays east of the line, I believe those odds go down significantly.

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:22 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:5pm update: Winds back up to 150mph. Matthew currently drifting to the NW at 3mph.

Also @ 5pm update: Matthew's forecast path keeps him over water the longest amount of time possible (while heading N/NW, squeezing between Jamaica & Haiti) before hitting Cuba. Beyond that, NHC depicts him rapidly strengthening again to at least CAT 3 while pounding the Bahamas.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:28 pm

Go b interesting I think he gets to ot past 75. We will see. Such a slight shift west amazing that that would make all the difference. Frank how do u feel about the model runs and the euro caving partway to the gfs? Not enough for u to b concerned yet? Still thinking monday night writeup or tuesday?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:30 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25
inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 40 inches.  Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated  maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.
holy mother of....
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:30 pm

Here we go 18z gfs shortly.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:32 pm

Gfs still not have intensity close even hi res 977mb.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:33 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Here we go 18z gfs shortly.

THIS IS GOING TO BE THE LONGEST WEEK OF OUR LIIIIVES, segmented by 6-hr increments lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:34 pm

We need to name the convection on Matthew's east side. I think it's his side piece. I am naming her Martha.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 6 Rb_lalo-animated

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:39 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Here we go 18z gfs shortly.

THIS IS GOING TO BE THE LONGEST WEEK OF OUR LIIIIVES, segmented by 6-hr increments lol

lol! lol!  my husband and son are away for the weekend and I had 3 movies lined up that I wanted to watch....the only thing I have done today is feed the dogs and go out to get a bottle of wine to drink while I stare at my comuter... GFS Model
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:40 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:We need to name the convection on Matthew's east side. I think it's his side piece. I am naming her Martha.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 6 Rb_lalo-animated

I was going to ask what "Martha" is? is that something that will join up with Mathew at some point?


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:We need to name the convection on Matthew's east side. I think it's his side piece. I am naming her Martha.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 6 Rb_lalo-animated
I've been.meaning to ask what the heck that is. Only thing that really messes up his look for a cat 4.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:42 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Here we go 18z gfs shortly.

THIS IS GOING TO BE THE LONGEST WEEK OF OUR LIIIIVES, segmented by 6-hr increments lol

lol! lol!  my husband and son are away for the weekend and I had 3 movies lined up that I wanted to watch....the only thing I have done today is feed the dogs and go out to get a bottle of wine to drink while I stare at my comuter... GFS Model
lol luckily I got a pretry busy week at work so it should go by ok.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:42 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:We need to name the convection on Matthew's east side. I think it's his side piece. I am naming her Martha.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 6 Rb_lalo-animated

I was going to ask what "Martha"..is that something that will join up with Mathew at some point?

Martha is a mystery to many. I think when the system was undergoing rapid intensification yesterday there were two circulations that wanted to take over. Matthew ended up winning. Martha now follows him and only does what Matthew says.

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:44 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Here we go 18z gfs shortly.

THIS IS GOING TO BE THE LONGEST WEEK OF OUR LIIIIVES, segmented by 6-hr increments lol

lol! lol!  my husband and son are away for the weekend and I had 3 movies lined up that I wanted to watch....the only thing I have done today is feed the dogs and go out to get a bottle of wine to drink while I stare at my comuter... GFS Model

Sounds about right, lol! Happy tracking!!!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:44 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:We need to name the convection on Matthew's east side. I think it's his side piece. I am naming her Martha.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 6 Rb_lalo-animated

I was going to ask what "Martha"..is that something that will join up with Mathew at some point?

Martha is a mystery to many. I think when the system was undergoing rapid intensification yesterday there were two circulations that wanted to take over. Matthew ended up winning. Martha now follows him and only does what Matthew says.

thanks I am trying to take in as much information as possible and learn....
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