Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:39 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Watch sattelite loo, in last few frames it almost looks NE, someone I read on another board said the eye would rotate around and then make the turn, I never heard of that but that could be what its doing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

Tropical cyclones do not make "right" turns. He went south about an hour ago, then east, now northeast, then he will turn north and maybe northwest. Once he turns north, he should continue forward motion through next week. They flow counter clockwise.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:40 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:12z HWRF

almost 76 there.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Watch sattelite loo, in last few frames it almost looks NE, someone I read on another board said the eye would rotate around and then make the turn, I never heard of that but that could be what its doing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

Tropical cyclones do not make "right" turns. He went south about an hour ago, then east, now northeast, then he will turn north and maybe northwest. Once he turns north, he should continue forward motion through next week. They flow counter clockwise.

Gotcha, makes sense.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:43 pm

So if he goes due North East coast may be spared

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:48 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:So if he goes due North East coast may be spared

He will not go due NE. Either N or NW. Likely NNW. Will alternate between the two directions.

Again, DOES HE GET TO 75L? To me, that is the key.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:52 pm

Matthew has done a perfect loop the past 4 hrs. Keep an eye on red box ..watch.. pic.twitter.com/HEh7bgwlA0
— Anthony Siciliano (@Ants_SNEweather) October 1, 2016

by **amugs** Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:08 pm

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:05 pm

5pm update: Winds back up to 150mph. Matthew currently drifting to the NW at 3mph.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:05 pm

When does matthew need to pass 75 as nhc 5pm cone has him passing 75 into the bahamas.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:07 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:5pm update: Winds back up to 150mph. Matthew currently drifting to the NW at 3mph.

ahh the turn boy that's go b a nail biting crawl to 75 lol. I'm assuming he will b puking up dome forward speed?

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:12 pm

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25
inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:14 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:5pm update: Winds back up to 150mph. Matthew currently drifting to the NW at 3mph.
ahh the turn boy that's go b a nail biting crawl to 75 lol. I'm assuming he will b puking up dome forward speed?

We're all going to be on pins and needles watching that NW drift to see if it makes it to the 75 latitude threshold. Got to go folks. Going to the Redbulls game. Check back with you all later.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:17 pm

jmanley32 wrote:When does matthew need to pass 75 as nhc 5pm cone has him passing 75 into the bahamas.

Does not matter. As long as he does, he has a chance to impact the east coast. If he stays east of the line, I believe those odds go down significantly.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:22 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:5pm update: Winds back up to 150mph. Matthew currently drifting to the NW at 3mph.

Also @ 5pm update: Matthew's forecast path keeps him over water the longest amount of time possible (while heading N/NW, squeezing between Jamaica & Haiti) before hitting Cuba. Beyond that, NHC depicts him rapidly strengthening again to at least CAT 3 while pounding the Bahamas.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:28 pm

Go b interesting I think he gets to ot past 75. We will see. Such a slight shift west amazing that that would make all the difference. Frank how do u feel about the model runs and the euro caving partway to the gfs? Not enough for u to b concerned yet? Still thinking monday night writeup or tuesday?

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:30 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25
inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

holy mother of....

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:30 pm

Here we go 18z gfs shortly.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:32 pm

Gfs still not have intensity close even hi res 977mb.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:33 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Here we go 18z gfs shortly.

THIS IS GOING TO BE THE LONGEST WEEK OF OUR LIIIIVES, segmented by 6-hr increments lol

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:34 pm

We need to name the convection on Matthew's east side. I think it's his side piece. I am naming her Martha.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 6 Rb_lalo-animated

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 6 Rb_lalo-animated

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:39 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Here we go 18z gfs shortly.

THIS IS GOING TO BE THE LONGEST WEEK OF OUR LIIIIVES, segmented by 6-hr increments lol

my husband and son are away for the weekend and I had 3 movies lined up that I wanted to watch....the only thing I have done today is feed the dogs and go out to get a bottle of wine to drink while I stare at my comuter... GFS Model

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:40 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:We need to name the convection on Matthew's east side. I think it's his side piece. I am naming her Martha.

I was going to ask what "Martha" is? is that something that will join up with Mathew at some point?

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:We need to name the convection on Matthew's east side. I think it's his side piece. I am naming her Martha.

I've been.meaning to ask what the heck that is. Only thing that really messes up his look for a cat 4.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:42 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Here we go 18z gfs shortly.

THIS IS GOING TO BE THE LONGEST WEEK OF OUR LIIIIVES, segmented by 6-hr increments lol

my husband and son are away for the weekend and I had 3 movies lined up that I wanted to watch....the only thing I have done today is feed the dogs and go out to get a bottle of wine to drink while I stare at my comuter...

lol luckily I got a pretry busy week at work so it should go by ok.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:42 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:We need to name the convection on Matthew's east side. I think it's his side piece. I am naming her Martha.

I was going to ask what "Martha"..is that something that will join up with Mathew at some point?

Martha is a mystery to many. I think when the system was undergoing rapid intensification yesterday there were two circulations that wanted to take over. Matthew ended up winning. Martha now follows him and only does what Matthew says.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:44 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Here we go 18z gfs shortly.

THIS IS GOING TO BE THE LONGEST WEEK OF OUR LIIIIVES, segmented by 6-hr increments lol

my husband and son are away for the weekend and I had 3 movies lined up that I wanted to watch....the only thing I have done today is feed the dogs and go out to get a bottle of wine to drink while I stare at my comuter...

Sounds about right, lol! Happy tracking!!!

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:44 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:We need to name the convection on Matthew's east side. I think it's his side piece. I am naming her Martha.

I was going to ask what "Martha"..is that something that will join up with Mathew at some point?

Martha is a mystery to many. I think when the system was undergoing rapid intensification yesterday there were two circulations that wanted to take over. Matthew ended up winning. Martha now follows him and only does what Matthew says.

thanks I am trying to take in as much information as possible and learn....

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