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Another Tropical Threat Next Week?

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Post by rb924119 Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:41 pm

New video:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYZW04aVpLNWVwSEE

Hope it makes sense, isn't too long or confusing, and you all enjoy!!

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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:15 am

Ray great video, and thanks for the shout out.  It will be interesting to yet once again test your theory on PV with this set up.  I will say a few things however that we may have to chew on, and please correct me anywhere you think I may be off.  First:  The s/w energy that may or may not consolidate originates as a wave breaking off the main trough off the NW west coast seen currently diving WSW as seen on this first image across the nations midsection as of initialization of 6z GFS.  

Another Tropical Threat Next Week? Gfs_z500aNorm_namer_1


By late Sunday it approaches the SE coast and seems to catch up to the trough out in the Atlantic, which is created by Nicole, and the elongated tail to that trough is created via the weakness you referred to in the video.  

Another Tropical Threat Next Week? Gfs_z500aNorm_namer_12

Now what I find interesting in what we saw with Matthew is the WAR was persistently under modeled in the medium range on guidance.  All models did this with Matthew initially.  However as we got in tight we saw a rapid trend and the WAR really build in fast and furious and ended up steering Mathew much closer to the SE coast and further S than expected because it ended up much stronger than originally modeled.  It was only after Matthew reached OBX that the weak departing trough to the N steered him OTS instead of the Loop scenario modeled.  My point here is could this happen again in the subtropics?  Could the WAR be currently undermodeled and could it end up becoming a dominant player yet again as it did with Matthew?  Looking at the last several runs of the GFS 500mb trend maps the WAR is significantly trending stronger in the 2-4day, the time the s/w trough is approaching the SE coast and modeled to link up with elongated Atlantic trough.  Starting with 12z GFS yesterday followed by 18z, 00z, and 06z this am notice the trends to the WAR.  (For now this is the only piece that I am focused on.  I say this because even if it does cutoff from the Atlantic trough if its too far west it may get caught up too fast in the approaching trough and not have the time to develop, but rather phase with it and lead to a Miller A type system moving north along the eastern flank of the trough rather than a true tropical entity.)

Another Tropical Threat Next Week? Gfs_z500trend_namer_8
Another Tropical Threat Next Week? Gfs_z500trend_namer_8
Another Tropical Threat Next Week? Gfs_z500trend_namer_7
Another Tropical Threat Next Week? Gfs_z500trend_namer_7

So could we see trends that actually cut off the energy from the departing Nicole and actually lead to an organization of said energy somewhere off the SE coast/Bahamas or even in the GOM if the WAR really comes on like gang busters?  Just some food for thought.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 14, 2016 12:45 pm

rb, great video, seems euro 00z had a system track right up coast and so did cmc (well it has 2 but I don't buy that, and can see why u don't buy any of it). But the two were close to each other, so your thinking the gfs this time lol, models just battling to get it right one or the other and cmc is the middle useless player. One day the CMC has got to get it right over the gfs and euro, wouldn't that be something!
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:02 pm

Another Tropical Threat Next Week? Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9

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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:12 pm

@amugs wrote:Another Tropical Threat Next Week? Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9
Mugs i dont think thats tropical. Any way will take that look anytime djf. That would be snow from c pa into c ny and new england as 0c 850's are close to the coast
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:15 pm

extratropical ^^^^ or a Nor - right on Al - remember the winter pattern starts to set up in the late Oct to early Dec timeframe

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:46 pm

I think it is originally tropical as where it develops but probably goes hybrid or extratropical, yeah that would be sweet in winter. Am hoping we get lots of "B" words this year to make up for the lack of wind excite ment for me with no hurricanes LOL,but altogether its a good thing that they stayed away the destruction of Sandy such storms I would not wish on anyone. And wind in the winter is far less destructive as no leaves.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:20 pm

Nice video Ray. You make a couple of good point. I remain unenthused.

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Post by track17 Sat Oct 15, 2016 11:39 am

What is the update on this threat

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 15, 2016 4:50 pm

I dunno if it's tropucal but both gfs and cmc have a deluge for the end if the week. Lr gfs has storm after storm coming across the us as see some blue muxed in there!
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Post by rb924119 Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:32 pm

Nice write up Scott! It's possible, but I just don't see it happening this time around. As Frank said, I'm not thinking much of anything can organize and impact the coastline. Then again, I haven't seen any modeling since yesterday so I don't know what's going on, but as of then that's what I'm thinking.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 15, 2016 9:16 pm

Not sure where to discuss the rain event threat but I think it kinda comes from part of this possible system, anyways wow 12z CMC has 5-6 inches of rain in less than 30 hrs from he 138 to 168. Yeah I know its the CMC but dayumm.
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Post by mwilli5783 Sun Oct 16, 2016 12:59 pm

has anyone looked at the carribbean sea there is a wave with winds coming from west 2 east thuderstorms slowly building..something 2 watch

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Oct 16, 2016 6:34 pm

yes thats the system that may nerge with and phase with a trough end of week for possible noreaster. right now models keeping them as a just miss.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:47 am

Doesn't look like it's going to happen

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:48 am

@Snow88 wrote:Doesn't look like it's going to happen


I think something may develop albeit weak but making it up here to phase for a noreaster like franks mo mo says is looking less likely. no model support.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:52 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:Doesn't look like it's going to happen


I think something may develop albeit weak but making it up here to phase for a noreaster like franks mo mo says is looking less likely.  no model support.

Every model shows a miss with the phase 😢
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 17, 2016 8:25 pm

This has been designated Invest 99L! Oscar on the horizon? My grandfather Oscar Handlin made history literally, look him up. Was one of the biggest historians in US.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nicole, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. A broad area of low pressure located near the southeastern Bahamas
is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms over the western Atlantic between the Bahamas and
Bermuda.  Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for
significant development, but could become more conducive for
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation on Wednesday or Thursday
when the system begins to drift northward or north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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