Re: July 2013 Casual Discussions & Observations Thread

[Snow88]

90 right now in Brooklyn

[Frank_Wx]

The EURO is still trying to get temps into the upper 80's and low 90's next week. Not sure I'm buying that.

[Quietace]

It will be interesting to see of Severe Weather makes it into the area today. Per the Mesoscale Analyst, it shows the best forcing and Effective Bulk shear to our North West right now in Western NY and Penn. We do have elevated CAPE Values right now around 1500 in NJ to a MAX of 3500 in Connecticut, those will be on the rise as the day goes on. The early Morning cloud cover has burned off, and our temperatures are off to the races. This will allow CAPE values and instability to rise as the day goes on due to the elevated humidity and Dew Points. As the front moves to the SE today, the question is will we have enough shear and forcing to allow for severe weather?  

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/eshr/eshr.gif?1374333798998
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/sbcp/sbcp.gif?1374333807673
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/lcls/lcls.gif?1374333817466

The 6z Hi-Res NAM Composite Radar shows a line of strong thunderstorms holding together and moving through the area, as does the HRRR.



My thinking right now is that we will see some strong thunderstorms moving into the area, but i think we will miss out of widespread severe weather for everyone as i think we will miss out on the best CAPE values and Shear, though there could be isolated cells with alot of cloud to ground lightning and some gusty wind.

[Frank_Wx]

Sorry for the lack of updates the last couple of days. I went down to Atlantic City to celebrate a birthday. Here are a couple of notes:

1. The storms today weren't that bad, and I'm not sure SPC had to issue that SLGHT risk. I was never high on the widespread severe weather threat, but it did look isolated areas got some severe weather. Overall, not impressed.

2. The pattern change I blogged about a few days ago will come to fruition. More troughs will enter the northeastern U.S. as the Bermuda High translates eastward and the Atlantic ridge breaks down. Expect more average to slightly below average temps with a couple rainy days mixed in between.

3. The tropics are going to start livening up. A potent wave coming off of Africa in the next 2 days, in my opinion, has a 60% chance of developing into at least a tropical storm. Where it tracks though remains to be seen.

4. It may be awhile before our next heat wave. Potentially mid to late August. Wouldn't it be something if it didn't come till 2014, though?

[Frank_Wx]

Pattern change starts today. Thank god. Goodbye 90's/100's and humidity.

[Quietace]

Looks like we could see a good amount of rain over the next day and a half and maybe another event into the end of the week. It looks as if a developing low to the west will push through the area and bring in plenty of convection for tomorrow. The GFS has 1 to 1.5 inches around the area with more north and west. The NAM keeps the bulk of the heaviest precipitation to the north and west of the area with lighter amounts in NJ. The GGEM is much more aggressive with the re-strengthening of the convection and has widespread 2+ amounts around the whole area. Their is plenty of energy and moisture to work with for tomorrow, and the radar is already pretty juicy out to the west,  so count on most likely a .5+ inch QPF accumulation tomorrow with more NW you are.  Any rain would likely keep us nice and cool in the high 70s to very low 80s the next day or 2....

[Frank_Wx]

Friday could be an interesting day...

[Frank_Wx]

Update on Friday: coastal storm should remain mainly off the coast, but I'm still expecting backlash rain to get into the area. We'll see if we can get model agreement today.

[Frank_Wx]

It's in the 60's! Feels like September

[Quietace]

Wrote a blog on the weekend and how a few models are showing a coastal low for Sunday...the GGEM is interesting...but could be way out to lunch...
http://newjerseyweathercenter.blogspot.com/2013/07/fantastic-start-to-weekend.html

[Frank_Wx]

Wrote a blog on the weekend and how a few models are showing a coastal low for Sunday...the GGEM is interesting...but could be way out to lunch...
http://newjerseyweathercenter.blogspot.com/2013/07/fantastic-start-to-weekend.html

Thanks for the blog Ryan! Good read. We'll see if we can get agreement on qpf tomorrow.

[Frank_Wx]

AccuWeather now on board with the pattern change to normal temps with some days of below normal as well.

[Frank_Wx]

Quick checkup on the ENSO and what it could mean for winter!

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2013/07/quick-check-on-enso-upcoming-winter.html

[Frank_Wx]

Rain to move in late tonight into tomorrow and Monday morning. .50-1.00 inches of rain can be expected. Temps will get cool again Monday-Tuesday into the 70's (60's in some parts). Beyond that, a more potent trough can potentially infiltrate into the area in about 10 days from now. There is surprising model agreement this could happen. Below is the 12z EURO model. August looks like it wants to stay on the cool side. I'm also expecting hurricane season to really ramp up end of August, but I'm beginning to think this season won't be as active as experts have made it out to be.

[Frank_Wx]

Both EURO and GFS show a much below normal temperature regime for the north-central and northeast U.S. through much of the next 2-3 weeks. Actually, EURO is showing high temps in NYC next week between 68-73 degrees.

[Quietace]

Models want to move the front into the area in the Thursday-Friday time frame bringing more rain into the area. Today's NAM runs were interesting to me, the possibility of some enhanced rainfall from a re-developing Low. We will see were the models go in the next few days...

[Quietace]

A washout tomorrow. Looks like all day rainfall with everyone seeing over a inch.
http://newjerseyweathercenter.blogspot.com/2013/07/more-rain-on-way-for-area.html

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