Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

by **algae888** Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:27 pm

The models are having a hard time with that block especially the GFS as its to Progressive and wants to pull it out whereas the Euro and CMC have it build in Eastern Canada. If they are right nothing is going to cut next week it's possible only if the GFS is correct as the Ridge is Progressive and moves East. Also just because it is red on the 500mb map doesn't always mean it's warm at the surface. We have a big ocean with water temperatures in the low 40s any flow from there we'll keep the warm air at Bay. Wish I could post the 500 MB Maps but I'm on my cell I'll try and do it later

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:13 pm

The PNA ridge on the GEPS is God-like around the 28th

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:22 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The PNA ridge on the GEPS is God-like around the 28th

Amazing it's been our friend

by **jake732** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:27 pm

interesting that the cmc is showing snow for this event. any explanation? as the rest of the models arent even close,way to warm?

by **algae888** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:38 pm

jake732 wrote:interesting that the cmc is showing snow for this event. any explanation? as the rest of the models arent even close,way to warm?

Jake cmc has low pressure bombing out southeast of us it really doesn't matter what surface temperatures are as the whole column will cool once the system bombs in late January. The Reds on the map in the upper atmosphere doesn't mean the temperatures are warm up there but mighty cold just warmer-than-normal that it will work down through the column when a system bombs off the coast. In late January surface temperatures With the Wind off the water will be no higher than the low 40s so it doesn't have to cool much that would be a 32 33 degree paste bomb

by **algae888** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:40 pm

That block on the euro is insane

by **algae888** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:43 pm

Hour 168 998 millibar off the North Carolina coast system not going to cut primary Fizzles out in Eastern Kentucky now we just need a piece of Northern Stream Energy to phase in Trough and negative tilted

by **algae888** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:46 pm

It weakens and goes harmlessly out to sea I like the setup not too far off from the CMC

by **amugs** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:48 pm

MOMMA FRIGGIN MIA _ UGGHHH a South easter not a Nor - if it was it would be an absolutely crippling blizzard hands down!!
We have time but teh setup isnt there at H5 yet - holding out hope.
If this were to be a coastal as shown coastal flooding galore, Trop force winds and a deluge of rain.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 35 587e63b61f570

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 35 587e63b61f570

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:50 pm

Just a sexy GFS run after the 27th. So much potential. Too bad about the Atlantic, but we'll make do.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:51 pm

For Jon...winds on the EURO for next week's cut off storm.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:52 pm

Look at these winds - WOW!

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 35 587e638391fb0

by **jake732** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:53 pm

frank, do u see anyway the cmc is on the right track?

by **amugs** Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:55 pm

Frank - Lets make this a Sunday night storm into mid day Monday WOOP WOOP!!

by **algae888** Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:12 pm

Frank Scott rb mugs any chance this system next week bombs out off the coast it looks very disorganized with pieces all over the place. The block looks good though

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:For Jon...winds on the EURO for next week's cut off storm.

Thats pretty high impact, verbatim, please keep us posted on the wind maps, I learned since being on here not to take them verbatim especially this far out. So CMC has a blizzard with 6-12+ and Euro has a tropical storm. Which will it be?

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:37 pm

amugs wrote:MOMMA FRIGGIN MIA _ UGGHHH a South easter not a Nor - if it was it would be an absolutely crippling blizzard hands down!!
We have time but teh setup isnt there at H5 yet - holding out hope.
If this were to be a coastal as shown coastal flooding galore, Trop force winds and a deluge of rain.

Jeeze whats the total qpf on euro for that event, its probably alot and if its not snow we will all cry lol

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:47 pm

jake732 wrote:frank, do u see anyway the cmc is on the right track?

It depends where the 500mb closed low tracks. Since there is another 500mb closed low on the heels of the system on Tuesday, the CMC shuns it east which allows some cold air to get drawn into the coast. It looked kind of odd to me. I favor a surface low tracking west or right along the coast (not off the coast), which would keep us mild with plenty of rain and possible damaging wind depending on where the upper level jet positions itself.

by Guest Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:55 pm

I'm making an early call. The immediate coast, LHV and NJ see 2-3" of rain and 30-45 mph winds. The Catskills and Dacks get buried with 2 feet plus. The Aresian cashes in BIG TIME!!!

by Guest Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:58 pm

If that happens, I'm building a snowman in my front yard and putting your name on it.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:03 pm

@syo and Aresian- Just so you know you have me absolutely keeled over from laughter right now ahahaha That's hilarious hahaha

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:06 pm

TheAresian wrote:If that happens, I'm building a snowman in my front yard and putting your name on it.

I'll tell you what name to put on him.

"Faccia Brutta"

That fits Jim well.

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:07 pm

algae888 wrote:Frank Scott rb mugs any chance this system next week bombs out off the coast it looks very disorganized with pieces all over the place. The block looks good though

Quite honestly I haven't paid any attention. I've been too focused on tomorrow's potential for the northwestern folks to see a little snow, as well as going ham with job applications. Once tomorrow is over I'll start getting into the more hardcore analysis of the next event(s).

by Guest Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:26 pm

Frank this comment is banter. Read the forum rules and adhere to them please. Any more banter in a forecast thread and I will ask Frank to suspend you for a time. I should know since it has happened to me 3 times

by **rb924119** Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:34 pm

rb924119 wrote:
algae888 wrote:Frank Scott rb mugs any chance this system next week bombs out off the coast it looks very disorganized with pieces all over the place. The block looks good though

Quite honestly I haven't paid any attention. I've been too focused on tomorrow's potential for the northwestern folks to see a little snow, as well as going ham with job applications. Once tomorrow is over I'll start getting into the more hardcore analysis of the next event(s).

STRONGLY DISLIKE the EURO Operational's evolution at H5 for the 24th, and in fact, much prefer the look of the GEM to both the EC and GFS Operational runs of 12z today at first glance. No, NOT kidding. Although operational runs are about as useless as a screen for shelter in a rainstorm this far out with such an intricate setup, I will be very curious to see the look of the respective ensembles.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:44 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Frank this comment is banter. Read the forum rules and adhere to them please. Any more banter in a forecast thread and I will ask Frank to suspend you for a time. I should know since it has happened to me 3 times

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:45 pm

The EURO Ensembles are on board with a huge Stratospheric Warming Event. Here they are at 10mb. Look where the warmth pushes the PV. Into Europe...haha.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 35 C2YgmIeUoAAHd-X

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 35 C2YgmIeUoAAHd-X

Also, a big signal for a possible Godzilla around February 1st, which falls in the time period I've liked for awhile. We'll see what happens!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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