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December 12th Clipper

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hyde345
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:36 pm

Ahhh the benefits of a +PNA. Anytime we see positive height anomalies in the western U.S. it heightens the risk of snow for us on the east coast. Why? Because as long as the Polar Vortex is on our side of the continent then pieces of upper level energy will break off and dig southward into our area.

December 12th Clipper Gfs_z500_vort_us_9

Notice this new piece of energy in the Midwest - riding the western ridge - moving in our direction. It's a fast moving piece and originated from the Arctic, hence the name Alberta Clipper.

December 12th Clipper Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11

For everyone to see snow Tuesday we need this clipper to track further south than where the GFS has it. Notice the low pressure on this image is located over western NY. Heights rise ahead of this low so the coast rains while those N&W snow.

December 12th Clipper Ecmwf_ptype_ne_72

The EURO looks like the GFS. Same for the NAM.

Let's see if this trends colder for coastal areas in the next 48 hours. But those N&W are in line for a 1 to 3 inch type snowfall Tuesday morning.


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Post by mikeypizano Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:45 pm

LETS DO THIS!
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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:49 pm

Updated point click for Long Island

Monday Night

Snow likely, mainly between 10pm and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday

A chance of rain and snow before 7am, then a chance of rain between 7am and 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:46 pm

National Weather Service has snow for me Monday night a community 1 to 3 inches before changing to rain and ending on Tuesday after that hello to Winter Wednesday's high is only supposed to be 25 degrees and Thursday a high of 32 degrees brrrrrr

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:35 pm

Nice let's hope it's all snow and not too much today's melts. As long as it's not snowing midday Monday as I'm go be taking a drive up to CT. Then I'll be there till wed so it can snow all it wants Mon night Tues.
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:42 am

Monday NightSnow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

TuesdayRain and snow likely before noon, then rain likely between noon and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. South wind 6 to 9 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

for me
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Post by hyde345 Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:15 am

We should do OK with this event north of 84. Looking like 1-3/2-4 type event right now. Hopefully things trend south in future runs.
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Post by mikeypizano Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:36 am

December 12th Clipper Screen13


Accuweather for Pittston, PA
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:34 pm

So I see this is no longer on the snow index so I guess its no longer going to happen?
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Post by jimv45 Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:46 pm

jman i think it will be a north of 84 system will see but not expecting more then 1-3 up here.

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Post by Quietace Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:49 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So I see this is no longer on the snow index so I guess its no longer going to happen?
Rain for most of those in the area. Northern HV/NE PA could see a light snowfall. NJ(those who get precip)/CT are rain for this event.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:36 am

Possible caliper end of week Thursday Friday night high rstio
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Post by Guest Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:24 am

3-5” forecast at mom and dads up in Ulster County. They got 4” the other day. Build that snow pack baby.

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Post by hyde345 Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:34 pm

syosnow94 wrote:3-5” forecast at mom and dads up in Ulster County.  They got 4” the other day.  Build that snow pack baby.  

They're lucky. I'm in Dutchess County about 20 miles north of 84 and the forecast is only for about an inch because of too much warming in mid levels causing mixing. Maybe later in the week we get another chance of some light snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:14 pm

Looks like this will be a warm event for most

December 12th Clipper Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:04 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like this will be a warm event for most

December 12th Clipper Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5

Should their be a thread for 14/15 clipper
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Post by dkodgis Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:21 am

It is 4:15 am and the temp is hovering at 31. It has been steady at that temp since 6:30 last night. I would rather see it go lower for snow or higher for rain than sleet. Looks like it will be nip and tuck up here for road conditions. NWS has it one to four inches up here but I think it will be mixed and nasty. We'll see. What am I doing up so early? Dog patrol.
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Post by dkodgis Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:18 am

And here we are an hour later at 5:15 am and it is lightly snowing up here in northwest Orange county with temp at 31. Emphasis is on light.
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Post by mikeypizano Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:59 am

My local botched it. Said 2 inches, we got nothing...
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