Wednesday, October 3rd Extended Outlook and Discussion

by **rb924119** Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:37 am

Hi Everybody!!

Please visit the link below to view my latest video outlook, where I discuss how I think the pattern is going to evolve over the next several weeks and why, and when/if I foresee any potential pattern change.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1p61HLCDQxPTBYx1KfK_Xe-Eg8wThwLeo

Please note that in the last slide, the middle graphic is a graphic of EURO Op 200 hPa velocity potential and divergent wind. While it was only a graphic at Day 10, I put it up there because I wanted to use it to explain a key concept of my Niño 1.2 prediction of why we will be seeing a resurgence of those positive anomalies again before we see them decline. As the MJO pulse continues to propagate through Phase 1 and into Phase 2, we will start to see a reversal of the lower-level pressure field and associated winds from easterly (which has led to the current decline in the SST anomalies) to westerly after about Days 4-6 and through Days 13-15. This will allow those waters to begin warming again as downwelling begins to occur. However, once the MJO enters the Null Phase and then begins to re-emerge into Phases 7-8 as I expect during Weeks 3 and 4, this will allow the pressure perturbations governed by the new MJO pulse and resultant vertical circulations to reverse the pressure patters again in this region, therefore resuming an anomalous easterly component to the wind in and around Niño region 1.2 such that it's lagged effect to help induce troughing into the Eastern CONUS during my target period will constructively interfere with the other factors outlined. I apologize for not really covering this in the video, but hopefully this made sense.

If there are any questions, comments, concerns **about the thoughts outlined in my video**, please feel free to leave them here!

Thank you!!