December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Good Morning -

I'm keeping an eye on a potential storm that could impact our area December 4th-5th. Although the GFS and EURO do not show a storm in their latest runs, the CMC and some individual ensemble members do. The pieces are there but is the pattern conducive to tie these pieces together? At this time I am thinking no the pattern is not.

Here is a look at the 500mb pattern on Monday, December 3rd from the GEFS and EPS. Remember our potential storm is on the 4th-5th.





Notice how both of these models have the East Coast stuck between the Atlantic Ridge and Mid-Level Trough. On Sunday, our area will see rain part from a storm cutting through the central U.S. After the cold front passes through our area, it shifts the baroclinic zone well to our S&E. Heights never seen to recover because of the lack of amplification in the central and western U.S.



If we look at the 500mb upper energy on Tuesday afternoon, you can see how energy is strung out across the country. It is hard to find a truly defined northern and southern piece of energy.



Fast forward to Wednesday morning and now you actually do see well defined norther pieces of energy - digging south in response to the anomalous -EPO ridge - but by this point any southern energy has exited the coast. It is possible we can see a storm solely from the northern piece, a clipper essentially, but we will need to see it dig much further south. The PNA is mostly neutral or negative which does not help matters.

This all comes down to timing. If the northern piece speeds up to phase with southern energy than we could see a pretty significant storm effect our area. Most likely though, we only have northern pieces to work with and it is still too early to know if these pieces of energy are strong enough to bring about a low pressure (clipper).

We'll see what happens!

12z ICON is a coastal compared to previous runs of a cutter

Sanchize06 wrote:12z ICON is a coastal compared to previous runs of a cutter

Just saw that 3 to 6 inches for the area I figured it was going to adjust after showing primary over Michigan yesterday

CMC GFS and the new GFS all lost the storm for Tuesday / Wednesday

Don't write this off - we need a few tweaks and timing and BAM!! Just have to hope the North Stream Energy catches up to the Southern and rounds the bend. This is 5 days out for things to come around over the next three days.

You see a N PNA here on the GEFS - need a bit more spike and we could be in business:


0Z run - you see it building



same time 12z yesterday


It may not have room with a few LP coming on shore but it has potential

Window is not quite closed on this threat just yet but its about half way. The threat behind is a much more legitimate threat which has always been the case. 24-36 more hours could legitimately close this window for me.

Patience

Its coming

Yes Scott patients this threat is not over yet it's kind of changed as it's been pushed back a day to Wednesday into Thursday as it is no more Southern stream as that shortwave exit off the coast however the northern stream shortwave looks to close off in the Midwest for a 6 hour period before opening back up if it's just a little stronger and stays closed a little longer surface low-pressure would form and could impact our area still hasn't been sample yet have a few more days to go for that

Oh boy..kiss of death channel 2 talking about threat next Sunday

As suspected this storm will not work out for us. The upper energy is strung out across the country and the baroclinic zone is way off the coast.

Just something to keep an eye out for the rgem shows a norlan trough developing from the coastal storm that will be well offshore gives the southern Coastal New Jersey 2 to 4 inches of snow not sure if this feature will show up they are hard to predict and they usually come north closer in time

algae888 wrote:Just something to keep an eye out for the rgem shows a norlan trough developing from the coastal storm that will be well offshore gives the southern Coastal New Jersey 2 to 4 inches of snow not sure if this feature will show up they are hard to predict and they usually come north closer in time

This aspect is legitimate. We track!!

south central coastal NJ looks like they will snow tomorrow from inv trough. short range model all show 2+ inches of snow.

That's a nice hit on the HRDPS for Coastal central New Jersey tomorrow convective snows love to be there tomorrow

Wow...looks like a few of us in Ocean County would walk away with a nice little hit there.

After last month's shut out, I'll take this little Hanukkah gift and run!

Also, when it's possible to do, can someone please give a travel advisory for Rte 70 from Cherry Hill to Toms River tomorrow from 5 am thru 2 pm? Thanks!

RGEM still showing nice little hit (3-6 in.) for Ocean County this afternoon. TWC radar shows a glancing blow and global models and the NAM and HRRR show a near miss.

Curreent radar shows the IVT expanding into the SNJ coast.  Good luck to anyone down there and please report if you can.  

Down here in Atlantic county NJ. About 8 miles west of Atlantic City snowing at a good clip.....grass and car are covered, roads are wet. They are calling for 2-3 inches....We'll see

larryrock72 wrote:Down here in Atlantic county NJ. About 8 miles west of Atlantic City snowing at a good clip.....grass and car are covered, roads are wet. They are calling for 2-3 inches....We'll see

Nice. Good luck!!

I hope we get a nice little surprise for the city

Yep. looks like that Norlun trough has panned out for S. Jersey. Philadelphia actually reporting snow this hour as well.

sroc4 wrote:Curreent radar shows the IVT expanding into the SNJ coast.  Good luck to anyone down there and please report if you can.  

Radar looks pretty decent. Litle flare up just south of Manhattan/Statan island just off the NJ coast too