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A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

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A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:51 pm

Mood flakes look more and more likely for much of the region for early Monday morning.  Looking at 500 there is still room, and it wouldnt take much AT ALL, to enhance this some.  All models show at least flakes flying. Again a coating to an inch seems likely with potential for a little more, esp N&W.  

Here is the euro 500mb.  Notice the trough, although not overly amplified, tilting pos and slight neg. as it approaches the coast.  This config is supported on the GFS, CMC and NAM.  

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Euro_h10
A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Euro_h11
A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Ecmwf_41

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:54 pm

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Gfs_z500_vort_eus_11
A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Gem_z500_vort_eus_11
A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Namconus_z500_vort_eus_46
A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Nam3km_z500_vort_eus_61

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:08 am

Doc, you are on to something here! NWS has a 40% of snow Sunday night and 20% before noon on Christmas Eve for me.It may not fulfill CP and Jimmy's criteria for a White Christmas of 2.5 inches on the lawns, but seeing even a solid coating with flakes coming down will certainly be a big lift for the Christmas spirit after these rains of Biblical proportion this month,LOL.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:01 am

Upton starting to recognize....mood flakes

Another shortwave will be approaching as one wave moves through
the northern flow and a souther stream shortwave moves into the
base of the long wave developing trough late Sunday into Sunday
night. At the surface a weak clipper type frontal system will
quickly pass north or through the region Sunday night into
Monday, while the southern stream low passes off the DELMARVA
late Sunday night into Monday. The thermal profiles will be
cold enough across most of the region for light snow to occur.
Across the south profiles will initially be warm enough Sunday
evening for light rain along the coast, and then transition to
light snow as temperatures drop.....


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by hyde345 Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:18 pm

Not going to be a big deal but I guess that inch I may get will be more than I've gotten all month.
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Post by Guest Sat Dec 22, 2018 4:20 pm

Rain snow mix forecast. Up to 50-60% chance. Hopefully temps adjust down a few degrees

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:36 pm

Forecast now for 1-3 inches tomorrow night (per WC) and a 70% chance here. NWS at one inch and 60% chance.

If this was any other time other than Christmas Eve I wouldn't even be paying attention.
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Post by Guest Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:40 pm

MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:24 am

syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!
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Post by Guest Sun Dec 23, 2018 4:34 am

Latest update from NWS even worse A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 996bad10

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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:57 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!

Both you you

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 200

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:09 am

Scott Funny. Also true. But how should we feel. Never mind nomsnow but now rain?

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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:29 am

syosnow94 wrote:Scott Funny.  Also true. But how should we feel. Never mind nomsnow but now rain?

The Grinch who stole mood flakes.If we get rain instead of snow up here, the Grinch goes into the warmacist category,LOL.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:36 am

In all honesty Jim I think you have a good chance for snow to fall. The problem we have at the coast is the boundary layer. 925mb an 850mb look to remain below freezing while precip is falling on pretty much all the modeling.

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_25

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:12 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!

Both you you

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 200
yep its true and I don't care lol good one though. I just want a Godzilla even a small storm won't satisfy me sorry.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:17 am

@sroc4 wrote:In all honesty Jim I think you have a good chance for snow to fall.  The problem we have at the coast is the boundary layer.  925mb an 850mb look to remain below freezing while precip is falling on pretty much all the modeling.  

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_25
Scott that looks like I would be all snow but syo and you look like rain. Or is that snow in Westchester false due to lower level thermal profiles? Any chance coastal ct sees a better chance? That's where ill b driving tomorrow morning. No not worried bout driving though it would be first snow for my new Camry se
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:20 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!

Both you you

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 200

ha ha that is cute..we are in the dry slot looks like nothing going to happen..I will have to put on Hallmark..there is always mood flakes flowing on each of the shows... Very Happy
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Post by mikeypizano Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:03 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!

Both you you

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 200

If it doesn't snow soon, I am starting a donation fund... Mad
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:30 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!

Both you you

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 200

If it doesn't snow soon, I am starting a donation fund... Mad
go fund me is the only way you can rob people legally, just make up a cause and people give money. My friend even did one so he could have a nice birthday and was honest about it and he got like $100 lol
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Post by Guest Sun Dec 23, 2018 4:08 pm

Congratulations Doc CP and A few others.
A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 1a5b6610

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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:11 pm

Upton:
Surface temperatures stay above freezing and are mostly in the mid 30s across much of the coast making for little to no snow accumulation. Some places along the north shore of Long Island and in the Pine Barrens will be slightly colder in the lower 30s with forecast snow of a coating. Interior has lows near 30 with snow accumulations closer to 1 inch.

&&
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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:33 pm

RAP/HRRR/NAM have all come in slightly colder for the overnight,
indicating a higher potential for snow at the coast. Profiles
in NYC are marginal for snow so anticipating a very wet snow
which may only end up accumulating on grassy surfaces.
Elsewhere, snow appears to be the primary ptype for much of the
event, however QPF amounts are only on the order of 1/10 inch or
less, except across the Lower Hudson Valley, southwestern CT
and portions of NE NJ where up to .15" of liquid equivalent pcpn
is forecast. Amounts here haven`t changed much from the
previous forecast, however locations closer to the coast could
see up to 1/2" of snow accumulation. Will need to watch upstream
obs closely this eve.
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Post by Guest Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:44 pm

37 IMBY. 31 out by you Alex. Good luck. MERRY CHRISTMAS

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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:49 pm

35.5 according to my station. Dp 27 so there will be wetbulbing
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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:33 pm

Latest hrrr

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? B4384310

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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