HomeA CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
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A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by sroc4 Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:51 pm
Mood flakes look more and more likely for much of the region for early Monday morning. Looking at 500 there is still room, and it wouldnt take much AT ALL, to enhance this some. All models show at least flakes flying. Again a coating to an inch seems likely with potential for a little more, esp N&W.
Here is the euro 500mb. Notice the trough, although not overly amplified, tilting pos and slight neg. as it approaches the coast. This config is supported on the GFS, CMC and NAM.
Here is the euro 500mb. Notice the trough, although not overly amplified, tilting pos and slight neg. as it approaches the coast. This config is supported on the GFS, CMC and NAM.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by sroc4 Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:54 pm
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by docstox12 Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:08 am
Doc, you are on to something here! NWS has a 40% of snow Sunday night and 20% before noon on Christmas Eve for me.It may not fulfill CP and Jimmy's criteria for a White Christmas of 2.5 inches on the lawns, but seeing even a solid coating with flakes coming down will certainly be a big lift for the Christmas spirit after these rains of Biblical proportion this month,LOL.
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by sroc4 Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:01 am
Upton starting to recognize....mood flakes
Another shortwave will be approaching as one wave moves through
the northern flow and a souther stream shortwave moves into the
base of the long wave developing trough late Sunday into Sunday
night. At the surface a weak clipper type frontal system will
quickly pass north or through the region Sunday night into
Monday, while the southern stream low passes off the DELMARVA
late Sunday night into Monday. The thermal profiles will be
cold enough across most of the region for light snow to occur.
Across the south profiles will initially be warm enough Sunday
evening for light rain along the coast, and then transition to
light snow as temperatures drop.....
Another shortwave will be approaching as one wave moves through
the northern flow and a souther stream shortwave moves into the
base of the long wave developing trough late Sunday into Sunday
night. At the surface a weak clipper type frontal system will
quickly pass north or through the region Sunday night into
Monday, while the southern stream low passes off the DELMARVA
late Sunday night into Monday. The thermal profiles will be
cold enough across most of the region for light snow to occur.
Across the south profiles will initially be warm enough Sunday
evening for light rain along the coast, and then transition to
light snow as temperatures drop.....
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by hyde345 Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:18 pm
Not going to be a big deal but I guess that inch I may get will be more than I've gotten all month.
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by Guest Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:20 pm
Rain snow mix forecast. Up to 50-60% chance. Hopefully temps adjust down a few degrees
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:36 am
Forecast now for 1-3 inches tomorrow night (per WC) and a 70% chance here. NWS at one inch and 60% chance.
If this was any other time other than Christmas Eve I wouldn't even be paying attention.
If this was any other time other than Christmas Eve I wouldn't even be paying attention.
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by Guest Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:40 am
MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE 
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by jmanley32 Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:24 am
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by Guest Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:34 am
Latest update from NWS even worse 
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by sroc4 Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:57 am
jmanley32 wrote:Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Both you you
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by Guest Sun Dec 23, 2018 9:09 am
Scott Funny. Also true. But how should we feel. Never mind nomsnow but now rain?
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by docstox12 Sun Dec 23, 2018 9:29 am
syosnow94 wrote:Scott Funny. Also true. But how should we feel. Never mind nomsnow but now rain?
The Grinch who stole mood flakes.If we get rain instead of snow up here, the Grinch goes into the warmacist category,LOL.
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by sroc4 Sun Dec 23, 2018 9:36 am
In all honesty Jim I think you have a good chance for snow to fall. The problem we have at the coast is the boundary layer. 925mb an 850mb look to remain below freezing while precip is falling on pretty much all the modeling.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by jmanley32 Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:12 pm
yep its true and I don't care lol good one though. I just want a Godzilla even a small storm won't satisfy me sorry.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Both you you
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by jmanley32 Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:17 pm
Scott that looks like I would be all snow but syo and you look like rain. Or is that snow in Westchester false due to lower level thermal profiles? Any chance coastal ct sees a better chance? That's where ill b driving tomorrow morning. No not worried bout driving though it would be first snow for my new Camry sesroc4 wrote:In all honesty Jim I think you have a good chance for snow to fall. The problem we have at the coast is the boundary layer. 925mb an 850mb look to remain below freezing while precip is falling on pretty much all the modeling.
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:20 pm
sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Both you you
ha ha that is cute..we are in the dry slot looks like nothing going to happen..I will have to put on Hallmark..there is always mood flakes flowing on each of the shows...
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by mikeypizano Sun Dec 23, 2018 4:03 pm
sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Both you you
If it doesn't snow soon, I am starting a donation fund...
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by jmanley32 Sun Dec 23, 2018 4:30 pm
go fund me is the only way you can rob people legally, just make up a cause and people give money. My friend even did one so he could have a nice birthday and was honest about it and he got like $100 lolmikeypizano wrote:sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Both you you
If it doesn't snow soon, I am starting a donation fund...
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by Guest Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:08 pm
Congratulations Doc CP and A few others.
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by aiannone Sun Dec 23, 2018 9:11 pm
Upton:
Surface temperatures stay above freezing and are mostly in the mid 30s across much of the coast making for little to no snow accumulation. Some places along the north shore of Long Island and in the Pine Barrens will be slightly colder in the lower 30s with forecast snow of a coating. Interior has lows near 30 with snow accumulations closer to 1 inch.
&&
Surface temperatures stay above freezing and are mostly in the mid 30s across much of the coast making for little to no snow accumulation. Some places along the north shore of Long Island and in the Pine Barrens will be slightly colder in the lower 30s with forecast snow of a coating. Interior has lows near 30 with snow accumulations closer to 1 inch.
&&
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by aiannone Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:33 am
RAP/HRRR/NAM have all come in slightly colder for the overnight,
indicating a higher potential for snow at the coast. Profiles
in NYC are marginal for snow so anticipating a very wet snow
which may only end up accumulating on grassy surfaces.
Elsewhere, snow appears to be the primary ptype for much of the
event, however QPF amounts are only on the order of 1/10 inch or
less, except across the Lower Hudson Valley, southwestern CT
and portions of NE NJ where up to .15" of liquid equivalent pcpn
is forecast. Amounts here haven`t changed much from the
previous forecast, however locations closer to the coast could
see up to 1/2" of snow accumulation. Will need to watch upstream
obs closely this eve.
indicating a higher potential for snow at the coast. Profiles
in NYC are marginal for snow so anticipating a very wet snow
which may only end up accumulating on grassy surfaces.
Elsewhere, snow appears to be the primary ptype for much of the
event, however QPF amounts are only on the order of 1/10 inch or
less, except across the Lower Hudson Valley, southwestern CT
and portions of NE NJ where up to .15" of liquid equivalent pcpn
is forecast. Amounts here haven`t changed much from the
previous forecast, however locations closer to the coast could
see up to 1/2" of snow accumulation. Will need to watch upstream
obs closely this eve.
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by Guest Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:44 am
37 IMBY. 31 out by you Alex. Good luck. MERRY CHRISTMAS
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by aiannone Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:49 am
35.5 according to my station. Dp 27 so there will be wetbulbing
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Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?
by sroc4 Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:33 am
Latest hrrr
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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