Re: The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

[Guest]

Thanks, Frank. I thought NJ was going to be mostly rain today and tonight so it wouldn't be bad until tomorrow.

[amugs]

Unless our luck changes for the better and the pattern starts to cooperate, this winter is going to be a huge bust. Many weather forecasters both professional and novice alike called for anywhere from 150-200% of snowfall for the season. Thus far every storm has either cut to the west of us or has been suppressed. You can mostly thank our bad luck to the MJO which has been out of whack for the majority of the time. As we move forward in time and the wasted days start to wane on us (you have my support Syosnow), there's talk about an explosive pattern on the horizon complete with deep troughs and extreme blocking. I don't know about you, but I'm just not feeling it. There's a sense of being setup where a big storm is coming only to be taken away a la  Lucy did to Charlie Brown. Having said this, all it would take is one HECS to change peoples perception. My response to that is I'll believe it when I see it.

Good points.Still, there is plenty of snow producing time, 2 1/2 months to be exact, for this to turn around.I never throw in the towel until March 15.Last year was a good example.In the middle of February, I was walking in a park looking at buds opening up but in the middle of March I had a 27 inch snowstorm.Holding fast here!

But this year there was already greenery and trees blooming in the first week of January...  Pretty soon all this cold weather over the next two weeks will be wasted and By mid to month February we'll be going through another thaw.

Not a thaw spring will come in and we'll be doing a clean up from winter - oh wait what winter??LOL

Rb is done and I am right behind him. Saying this if we dont produce the next two - three weeks with this pattern we and I MEAN WE have all failed - from pro to amateurs to reminds me of the winters in the early 80's were most storm were slop fests, misses or Southern sliders.
There was so much working in our direction that has just failed - jet retraction, EAMT, GWO, FT, SST 's in the ocean's, Low Solar etc - Europe has been killing it and they are seeing all kinds of anomalous cold and snow in the entire continent and even into Africa and the Middle East. The part of the world is getting their arses kicked with extreme weather. Ala 11-12 winter - was always 7 days away to go poof before our very own eyes.

[Frank_Wx]

Ok. Didn’t want to clutter the main thread up with this. I’m from Hackettstown and am in Atlantic City today. Coming home tomorrow as of now. Can’t tell if the picture is better or worse as of now. Help! Trying to decide game plan. It looks to be bad but not as bad as early yesterday. Need to leave by 1 ppm today if heading home now.

When were you planning on leaving tomorrow? Sometime around noon tomorrow the cold is forecasted to arrive and quickly spread out. It could be very dicey if you're on the roads too late tomorrow.  

We would be on the road no later than 11 am and could leave sooner. More worried if we would be still in the risk on bad icing and power loss tonight. If so we would leave today.

Ice won't be an issue. But it will snow beginning at 6pm and I have Hackettstown getting 4 to 8 inches of snow before it changes to rain

[SENJsnowman]

Mugs, Rb, Frank, Sroc and all you other mets: I, and it's really 'we', really really appreciate your sharing your lifetimes of learning and experimenting, as well as your generous natures that make you want to invest so much time/energy into forecasting for our benefit.

[dkodgis]

I admit it. I am a boy inside who wants his snow. I will see how I do. Up here it looks good still for some snow

[ruggerij]

Ok. Didn’t want to clutter the main thread up with this. I’m from Hackettstown and am in Atlantic City today. Coming home tomorrow as of now. Can’t tell if the picture is better or worse as of now. Help! Trying to decide game plan. It looks to be bad but not as bad as early yesterday. Need to leave by 1 ppm today if heading home now.

When were you planning on leaving tomorrow? Sometime around noon tomorrow the cold is forecasted to arrive and quickly spread out. It could be very dicey if you're on the roads too late tomorrow.  

We would be on the road no later than 11 am and could leave sooner. More worried if we would be still in the risk on bad icing and power loss tonight. If so we would leave today.

Ice won't be an issue. But it will snow beginning at 6pm and I have Hackettstown getting 4 to 8 inches of snow before it changes to rain

Thanks Frank. That is a big help. I will deal with the cleanup when we get home tomorrow.

[Grselig]

These are are the times that crushes people's souls to a painful powder.  Well, CP, SENJ and other fine people on this site, it appears that the Warmacists have earned another victory through revolting and destructive warmadoo (kinda like voodoo).  It's the stuff that even Voldemort refused to use on moral grounds.  These people thrive in warm winters and moderately temperate summers. Look what its done.  This site is hurting.  RB a true Coldicist and good guy, one of the smartest and knowledgeable inhabitants, is giving up. For the sake of the health of the earth, we must find a way to crawl back and take victory.  Kinda like Leonard did to Hearns in their first fight = 14th round TKO, back when boxing was good.  Next week still has potential. You can't win by bringing a knife to a gun fight.  Now is the time we traded the knife for real weapons. Reverse the dreaded 2015 poll.  Winter is not yet lost, but its clinging off a deep cliff by a frayed thread.  What's next?  81.5 degree and partly cloudy summers with brush fire warnings!

[Guest]

Alright Aresian, now start counting them....and a one and a two......think you missed one

That reminds me of a joke:

A drummer and his wife find out that she's pregnant with quads and they're all going to be girls. He wants to name all of them Anna. His wife asks him how they'll be able to tell them apart. He says "We'll name them Anna1, Anna2......"

[Dunnzoo]

Unless our luck changes for the better and the pattern starts to cooperate, this winter is going to be a huge bust. Many weather forecasters both professional and novice alike called for anywhere from 150-200% of snowfall for the season. Thus far every storm has either cut to the west of us or has been suppressed. You can mostly thank our bad luck to the MJO which has been out of whack for the majority of the time. As we move forward in time and the wasted days start to wane on us (you have my support Syosnow), there's talk about an explosive pattern on the horizon complete with deep troughs and extreme blocking. I don't know about you, but I'm just not feeling it. There's a sense of being setup where a big storm is coming only to be taken away a la  Lucy did to Charlie Brown. Having said this, all it would take is one HECS to change peoples perception. My response to that is I'll believe it when I see it.

Good points.Still, there is plenty of snow producing time, 2 1/2 months to be exact, for this to turn around.I never throw in the towel until March 15.Last year was a good example.In the middle of February, I was walking in a park looking at buds opening up but in the middle of March I had a 27 inch snowstorm.Holding fast here!

But this year there was already greenery and trees blooming in the first week of January...  Pretty soon all this cold weather over the next two weeks will be wasted and By mid to month February we'll be going through another thaw.

Not a thaw spring will come in and we'll be doing a clean up from winter - oh wait what winter??LOL

Rb is done and I am right behind him. Saying this if we dont produce the next two - three weeks with this pattern we and I MEAN WE have all failed - from pro to amateurs to reminds me of the winters in the early 80's were most storm were slop fests, misses or Southern sliders.
There was so much working in our direction that has just failed - jet retraction, EAMT, GWO, FT, SST 's in the ocean's, Low Solar etc - Europe has been killing it and they are seeing all kinds of anomalous cold and snow in the entire continent and even into Africa and the Middle East. The part of the world is getting their arses kicked with extreme weather. Ala 11-12 winter - was always 7 days away to go poof before our very own eyes.

Don't worry folks, I have a flight out 2/22/19 to San Antonio, guarantee we'll have one then! lol

[dkodgis]

River Walk. Alamo. Etc.

[brownie]

I am relieved I will not have to deal with an ice storm, but this has truly been a wasted day.  The local Shop Rite was short staffed when I went there at 7:30 am because everyone had called out because of the impending storm.  Even the local museum closed at 2 pm today because of the storm that isn’t coming.

I guess it is better to be safe than sorry, but I do seem to recall more accurate storm forecasts years ago.  Perhaps that is selective memory.  Is it?

Now the rain can wash away all the salt I put down on my driveway.

[Guest]

Unless the mistake is of a spectacular nature, I think it's unlikely you'd remember the missed forecasts. It's like playing the lottery and only being one number shy of winning $5. Your brain deems it unimportant and removes it from memory.

[HectorO]

I'm still in the 6-10 range. My forecast hasn't budged for almost 2 days now. I'll let you know how it turns out.

[heehaw453]

My guess is rest of January we get minimal snow and February is light too. Just a feeling and show of frustration.

[SENJsnowman]

These are are the times that crushes people's souls to a painful powder.  Well, CP, SENJ and other fine people on this site, it appears that the Warmacists have earned another victory through revolting and destructive warmadoo (kinda like voodoo).  It's the stuff that even Voldemort refused to use on moral grounds.  These people thrive in warm winters and moderately temperate summers. Look what its done.  This site is hurting.  RB a true Coldicist and good guy, one of the smartest and knowledgeable inhabitants, is giving up. For the sake of the health of the earth, we must find a way to crawl back and take victory.  Kinda like Leonard did to Hearns in their first fight = 14th round TKO, back when boxing was good.  Next week still has potential. You can't win by bringing a knife to a gun fight.  Now is the time we traded the knife for real weapons. Reverse the dreaded 2015 poll.  Winter is not yet lost, but its clinging off a deep cliff by a frayed thread.  What's next?  81.5 degree and partly cloudy summers with brush fire warnings!

Leonard 'stole' that fight, by running from the best pfp fighter in the world at that time (well, 2nd...a young heavyweight named Mike was already headed for his first title shot at the time) for the first 2:30 of each round and then throwing a box of tissues at Hag for the last 30 seconds. But it was fair and square, the only real practical shot Leonard had and most importantly...it worked!!!

We got to start stealing some of these rounds here. My coldacist tendencies are no match for the warmacist powers all around me. Personally, I think we need Obi Wan...he's our only hope!

[amugs]

If we don't get the EPO press and Plot a Pac JET to retract to slope the EPO to press and PNA Ridge to amplify we can kiss our chances good bye. The NAO which was once being modelled to be stout and help.is......not gonna happen in the next week rom the looks. The PV is centered in central Canada and drops into the upper plains and then slides east with its bumrutal.cold but doesn't offer enough resistance on its outer periphery for storms not to run inland as I see it. Until we get a weak Negative NAO it will be the same old, comd, storm comes and runs in land due to nothing resisting it from doing such. Just my frustration and what I see so far in the next week and a half. 
Sorry but the don't get your hopes up just yet for the 28th cause we need help on the Atlantic side to prevent this from cutting in on us. I hope.I am wrong here but looking at the set up the anti cyclone wave break that was to drive the LP west to Iceland and help pump the HP over Greenland is not being forecasted as such which will have downstream wife affects. And the package keeps crashes vorts into the west coast deampmifying the pna Ridge and creating interference with the N EPO. Just ranting here cause what once was a great looking pattern may not be so great. Now I know why rb is self haitus.

[lglickman1]

So are we at the point where we can write off the rest of the winter?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

So are we at the point where we can write off the rest of the winter?

No, but if this pattern change doesn't happen by February 2nd I am.

[amugs]

So are we at the point where we can write off the rest of the winter?

No, but if this pattern change doesn't happen by February 2nd I am.

I concur if not looking real or having any storms by then I am ready to throw it in. 1" is my total for this met winter not counting the 7.8" from that Nov storm, what a KOD those storms have become.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

So are we at the point where we can write off the rest of the winter?

No, but if this pattern change doesn't happen by February 2nd I am.

I concur if not looking real or having any storms by then I am ready to throw it in. 1" is my total for this met winter not counting the 7.8" from that Nov storm, what a KOD those storms have become.

Mugs I've never liked pre November 20th snow storms, they always seem to be the KOD for winter. The larger they are the crappier the rest of the winter seems to be. The October 29, 2011 storm being the ultimate KOD, 16.0 inches IMBY 3-5 in the city and the crappiest winter to follow in the last two decades.

Lets hope we're not talking about the November 15th storm in the same vein in April.

[docstox12]

Wow, we have members in here willing to throw in the towel on FEBRUARY 1 ?????? Good thing there weren't guys like you in the Continental, Army at Valley Forge, the British would still be running this country.Or the Battling B___ards of Bastogne who would have surrendered when the Germans asked instead of saying "NUTS" to them like General Mac Auliffe did! There is still 2 1/2 months of snow producing time this year.I don't care about long range models, it can still snow as Al has said before.As for me, I'm fighting to the last ditch which is March 15th with nothing in sight but mild conditions with rain.

[amugs]

For those who are about to throw it in Frank posts a MECS Miller A on the Euro En's and does this to us. 

[weatherwatchermom]

Wow, we have members in here willing to throw in the towel on FEBRUARY 1 ?????? Good thing there weren't guys like you in the Continental, Army at Valley Forge, the British would still be running this country.Or the Battling B___ards of Bastogne who would have surrendered when the Germans asked instead of saying "NUTS" to them like General Mac Auliffe did! There is still 2 1/2 months of snow producing time this year.I don't care about long range models, it can still snow as Al has said before.As for me, I'm fighting to the last ditch which is March 15th with nothing in sight but mild conditions with rain.

not ready to throw in the towel, but just a little discouraged...I remember winters like today..cold but with snow on the ground...I remember being little so I think it was around 69 there was a storm and we were staying at my grandmothers and there were huge piles of snow when she opened up her front door and oooh the boxing day storm..that was a great winter...for now I just play my projector every night and look at the snow flakes dancing on the ceiling...

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Wow, we have members in here willing to throw in the towel on FEBRUARY 1 ?????? Good thing there weren't guys like you in the Continental, Army at Valley Forge, the British would still be running this country.Or the Battling B___ards of Bastogne who would have surrendered when the Germans asked instead of saying "NUTS" to them like General Mac Auliffe did! There is still 2 1/2 months of snow producing time this year.I don't care about long range models, it can still snow as Al has said before.As for me, I'm fighting to the last ditch which is March 15th with nothing in sight but mild conditions with rain.

You know me Doc just venting last night. Sub zero cold and everything snow covered has me back and ready for the next one.

I'll be looking for snow till April 15th that's usually my cutoff, although I still fondly remember the May 9th 1977 storm. I'd like another one of those before I leave this planet.

[amugs]

Mom that is great with the projector and I confess I had a moment last night me self. Now that CP is back on board I shall be joining my mate. Hey where is snowy come to tonk of it? Remember the quartet we formed back in 13-14 or was it 14-15. 
I have to try and find those posts, they need to be archived!!

[docstox12]

Wow, we have members in here willing to throw in the towel on FEBRUARY 1 ?????? Good thing there weren't guys like you in the Continental, Army at Valley Forge, the British would still be running this country.Or the Battling B___ards of Bastogne who would have surrendered when the Germans asked instead of saying "NUTS" to them like General Mac Auliffe did! There is still 2 1/2 months of snow producing time this year.I don't care about long range models, it can still snow as Al has said before.As for me, I'm fighting to the last ditch which is March 15th with nothing in sight but mild conditions with rain.

You know me Doc just venting last night. Sub zero cold and everything snow covered has me back and ready for the next one.

I'll be looking for snow till April 15th that's usually my cutoff, although I still fondly remember the May 9th 1977 storm. I'd like another one of those before I leave this planet.

THERE'S the CP I know! Winter and snow lover to the last flake!

We have it this morning up here CP, single digit cold, windy, trees encased in ice 4 /12 inches of what looks like snow.Just need some flurries on and off to enhance the mood.

[docstox12]

Wow, we have members in here willing to throw in the towel on FEBRUARY 1 ?????? Good thing there weren't guys like you in the Continental, Army at Valley Forge, the British would still be running this country.Or the Battling B___ards of Bastogne who would have surrendered when the Germans asked instead of saying "NUTS" to them like General Mac Auliffe did! There is still 2 1/2 months of snow producing time this year.I don't care about long range models, it can still snow as Al has said before.As for me, I'm fighting to the last ditch which is March 15th with nothing in sight but mild conditions with rain.

not ready to throw in the towel, but just a little discouraged...I remember winters like today..cold but with snow on the ground...I remember being little so I think it was around 69 there was a storm and we were staying at my grandmothers and there were huge piles of snow  when she opened up her front door and oooh the boxing day storm..that was a great winter...for now I just play my projector every night and look at the snow flakes dancing on the ceiling...

Mom, that was probably the February 1969 "Mayor Lindsay" snowstorm that gave us over 20 inches in Fort Lee NJ where I was living at the time.

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