Winter (or lack thereof) 2018/2019 review

While this may be a bit diff for some to follow this is a really wonderful write up by a Met student named Armando Salvadore.  He is one of many brilliant young minds out there involved in the world of meteorology and LR forecasting.  He is also a member here, but posts mostly in the 33&rain site and his private FB weather page.  He does an amazing job outlining why this seasons forecast "should"have gone differently and yet here we are on the cusp of March without any real appreciable snow in the major cities and surrounding areas of the NE.  Mugsy had posted some thoughts from Isotherm(Tom) that discussed some of this as well but also touched on how the QBO was likely a major player as to why despite all of the would be favorbale factors for NE cold and snow ended up thwarted when all the parts were added.  In short and simply stated the QBO was in a negative state at one level, but a positive state at another which in screwed the pooch.  Very interesting stuff.

If anyone has questions about what they are reading and or needs clarification please ask I and anyone else who may know the answer will do our best to answer.  

So, i'm going to take this time to actually "break" the ground regarding this winter, its bizarre, humbling, "golden" year for learning, and lastly, IMO, a near impossible aspect to forecast for back if you're looking at everything in October and even November. So, everyone here is likely familiar with how la nina's vs. el nino's act, right (we tend to want El nino's for winter as opposed to la nina's for several reasons, but thats for another time and is just 1 piece to the puzzle of why this winter was so hyped from the beginning)... This below, is called "Atmospheric Angular Momentum". Basically, all this measures is the total NET wind flows - either positive momentum like added momentum from the jet stream, MJO, torques (difference in pressure over mountain ranges can add westerly flow to the entire jet), etc., OR net NEGATIVE wind flows - imagine dropping a big boulder into a stream. What will that produce? A slowing down, right? That, in essence, is what is shown here via oranges/yellows (fast flow or aka westerlies flow... remember the northern hemisphere jet streams flow from west to east... hence WESTERLIES north of the sub-tropical belts. The Blues/greens represent regions where there is SLOWING down of the flow. Anyway, maybe forget that concept now and focus on that black line you see. The top graph is a cross section of both hemispheres with 0 indicating the equator. Notice how much more oranges and yellows there are compared to blues, and then when look at that black line... you see how it never dipped below the the "0" threshold? I also added the two phases of ENSO - the positive values = El Nino and vice-versa for bottom. What is my point? We're NOT in a La Nina, but rather El NINO *base state* - the northern hemisphere resembles that of which is characterized by El Nino conditions. This leads me into my next comment




So lets further show how bizarre, bewildering, and complicated it really is.... This below here, in essence, shows areas of UPLIFT and SINKING. We tend to like El Nino's so much more because it's the area of the warmest waters that not only promote the favorable phases for tropical forcing, BUT, its positioning influences rossby waves. What do i mean by a rossby wave? It's merely a ridge and/or trough. It's precisely the positioning of something like an Aluetian trough is formed from convection from the El Nino's SST patterns. AN aluetian low pumps an Alaskan ridge, therefore, sets up troughs into the East, which also helps form coastal and big snowstorms... see why we look for specific phases of ENSO? (then you have to account for where the warmest anomalies are, which tend to have higher correlations for certain things. blah blah, you see how complicated this is?? ). Anyway, this right here, shows a MODOKI EL NINO tropical forcing pattern.... The red arrows = lifting motion and the arrows outside of the red box = sinking air, thus a modoki *FORCING* is shown. So, then you may think to yourselves.. "hmm, modoki? wait, i know modoki El Nino's have produced big northeast winters and why this winter was supposed to be BIG"... and you'd be on the correct side. Has there been a single nor'easter then? anyone above average in snow? Yea.....




Then there is another way of looking at what base state we're actually in verbatim by looking at something called the "Global wind oscillation", which is another way of looking at the first graph - except, it's grouped into phases. Keeping it simple; phases 5-8 are of El Nino and the bottom half La Nina. Anyone see it in the La Nina phases by what i just told you? Keep in mind this is from Jan 4th until present.... Hmm... confused yet? This is just a part of it all. Why am i showing this to everyone? 1. to help explain the confounding questioning 2. to show how freaking complex the atmosphere is 3. to show how this is basically impossible to forecast... i mean everything i'm showing screams El Nino and even modoki forcing.... yet... yet... we're in a pattern like this below currently:




Does this right here, valid tomorrow morning via mid level flow, resemble anything like what is right below this WHICH should be correlated to that graph right above where it says "high aam" with a "loopy loop" into and between 6 and 7....?




Does that above look like this? Do some of you see why when i was looking at just some of the things above and then looking at this graph below, show why i was excited with SUPPORT, but never really came to fruition?




This composite shows a stout and ideally placed -NAO and -AO with the mean trough in the east with a STJ. We kind of have the STJ part, but no true -NAO, the bulk of the cold is in the west with ridging in the SE - which by the way isn't characteristic of an El Nino, rather, La nina.

So we literally have what we want, and what was called for, yet... where? that is just 1 part to it all.... enough for now

--Armando Salvadore--

Scott,
What a great write up and thank you for sharing. I know Jimmy (aka Syo) and others here where all over some of us for saying we wear rose colored glasses etc. BUT what are know finding is that we HAD it right EXCEPT for ONE variable that literally screwed EVERYTHING up IMO. This one variable had a cascading affect. Just so frustrating and some just may not understand what we were seeing in EAMT, GWO, Tropical forcing mechanisms, SST, etc etc that had all the marking of a bang bang winter. We tried and tried here and on otehr board as well to say - its coming as we looked at these very positive variables but could not figure out the why behind the what of this pattern. As I stated a great lesson.
The Best that Never Was is what I am coining the winter of 2018-19!!
Those who understand what Armando is discussing would have be .
One thing is for certain is that Low Solar if you look at the chart I posted in the LR did it dirty work but somehow allowed a level to sneak in there and destroy its work THIS winter.
I look forward to hearing more from others -Rb, Scott, Frank etc. -on what happened this winter so we can be better for the future.

It is a terrific write up - but now I need someone to explain WHY the atmosphere did not behave the way it should have. All of those favorable signals yet here I am eating PB&J in 55 degree weather on a February night.

I believe Isotherm explained his reasoning. He said the 30mb QBO screwed us. But could that alone really have made things this bad??

Frank_Wx wrote:It is a terrific write up - but now I need someone to explain WHY the atmosphere did not behave the way it should have. All of those favorable signals yet here I am eating PB&J in 55 degree weather on a February night.

I believe Isotherm explained his reasoning. He said the 30mb QBO screwed us. But could that alone really have made things this bad??

Frank 
Read Tom''s mega post on 33& rain teleconections thread.
It outlines this and why the 30mb level of the QBO so screwed us in conjuction with the SSW. It's amazing the domino effect of what one variable can do. Enjoy the PB&J comfort food LOL.

Good work Isotherm, Doc , Mugsy, Frank and rb and others trying to analyze the variables that confounded us this frustrating winter.I've said in the past that the current mathematical computer models need work to more accurately predict what will happen in the long range and this year really exemplifies that.To Frank's point, it is mystifying how one variable can throw a monkey wrench into the works.
Here we are in Mid February with the pattern that was set in stone starting Mid November still at play.Cold/dry and storms cutting to our west producing rain or slop.That's three solid months of repetition.The flip flop to this year was '95-'96 when every storm produced snow.

Weather is dynamic but even dynamic has a direction. With global warming, new dynamics thus unpredictable results?

Frank_Wx wrote:It is a terrific write up - but now I need someone to explain WHY the atmosphere did not behave the way it should have. All of those favorable signals yet here I am eating PB&J in 55 degree weather on a February night.

I believe Isotherm explained his reasoning. He said the 30mb QBO screwed us. But could that alone really have made things this bad??

Frank here is the technical discussion from Tom regarding his thoughts on the strange QBO.(Its about 2/3rds to 3/4 of the way down the page posted Wednesday Feb 13th at 9:52am).  Very technical, but the QBO was interconnected on many levels.  I have read it several times and each time I find a new bit of info to wrap my head around and try to understand.  The entire page has some unbelievable discussion on how it all works, but again is very technical and at times hard to follow.  


https://www.33andrain.com/topic/868-teleconnections-a-technical-discussion/?page=35&tab=comments#comment-133696

Damian Id be really careful using the term "global warming" as this term is one that typically is linked to the group that believes man is in control.  Despite what that side of that particular argument claims this is an opinion of one collective group; not a fact.  There have been MANY MANY supposed set in stone facts involving what we think we know about "things".  Like how the body works, weather/atmosphere, how our world, sun, and universe are connected etc. over the history of man kind.  Time and time again those supposed set in stone facts have only fallen to the new understanding of an area, thanks to technology and people willing to go against the conventional.  If you think our understanding of the changing climate has reached a complete understanding because one group says something is fact then your likely to be left behind when that fact is proven to be part of a bigger truth.  Yes we are a part of the equation, but as we learn more and more about relationships between the world and universe the more we realize there is WAY more to it.  Those who do not choose to acknowledge these new relationships will be left behind.  The climate is changing, this is undebatable, but the causes of it and the individual causes overall contributions are still open for discussion.  That's all Ill say on that.

My rebuttal to the "global warming caused by man" is many millions of years ago where I sit was far underwater then a while later there was 100 feet of ice over it.....all when humans were not present.Case closed, done deal over and out!

What I mean in general terms is everyone had trouble with estimating how the winter might go and of course, I know enough about weather to fill a shot class-so I know nothing really. We have an idea now why the winter was hard to predict. What I am saying is how the curve balls get thrown and by what seems difficult to know despite analogs, great equipment, and so on. I sit on the fence with global warming caused by [fill in the blank]. What I mean is if there is climatic shift for the reasons of [fill in the blank], then weather will continue to be difficult to forecast and much more so, right? It seems too complicated a picture to paint.

docstox12 wrote:My rebuttal to the "global warming caused by man" is many millions of years ago where I sit was far underwater then a while later there was 100 feet of ice over it.....all when humans were not present.Case closed, done deal over and out!

Yes lets go there right? I concur Doc x2.

@Scott, Isotherms Ivy league technical journal writing is bar none. What he shows is that that 30MB level last winter was Negative thus allowing the massive down welling we saw late Feb but more so through March and into April from the SSW that took place in Feb.

In talks with Tom aka Isotherm it is very interesting to see how this variable is a crucial aspect to our sensible weather and again teh domino affects is had on teh atmospheric set up for us.
Other parts of this great country have made out handsomely as they say and have gotten hammered this winter, it just wasn't in teh Megalopolis majority of Phi thrugh Bastaan, DV through Norfolk have done well so they are carved out of this equation.

Same pattern with the N PNA and no blocking in the North Atlantic - whether a 50/50 or true NAO Block all storms go into the GL or Penn and then get killed by the Quebec HP - thank God for teh Canadians to bail us out and THIS is a result of the anomalous snow and ice cover that is there since November - paying off some dividends or else we'd be just wet and not white AT ALL IMO.
Enough for now looking forward to more discussion from our board members.

dkodgis wrote:What I mean  in general terms is everyone had trouble with estimating how the winter might go and of course, I know enough about weather to fill a shot class-so I know nothing really.  We have an idea now why the winter was hard to predict. What I am saying is how the curve balls get thrown and by what seems difficult to know despite analogs, great equipment, and so on.  I sit on the fence with global warming caused by [fill in the blank]. What I mean is if there is climatic shift for the reasons of [fill in the blank], then weather will continue to be difficult to forecast and much more so, right?  It seems too complicated a picture to paint.  

Fair enough. But imho of course the complexity of it all is all more reason to paint. If it doesn’t turn out right paint again and again. That’s the beauty of it. After we paint a picture we think it’s all done only to realize a new painting has already started.

Let's keep this thread going with ideas and thoughts about this winter from across the weather community. I'd like to revisit this whole thing after the season, as I can't wrap my head around it right now. Would love to dissect it when I have time!