Long Range Thread 19.0

[Frank_Wx]

Welcome to the new winter season! I have some rust to shake off as I nestle back into my forecasting chair. Be a little patient with me in the early going, but I do plan to post updates much more frequently throughout the week. My focus will be the longer range - trying to understand the pattern and the multiple factors that control it.

In the early going the bulk of the discussion will be centered around the QBO, ENSO, AAM, and North America Snow Cover. These are the main 4 drivers of our weather pattern in my personal opinion. Then there are several things that enhance the pattern, like the teleconnections (AO, NAO, PNA) and the MJO being of most significance. For the purpose of just getting started and trying to get back into the swing of things, here is a brief update on some of these influencers.

The QBO measures easterly (positive) or westerly (negative) winds in the Stratosphere and often has direct influence on our sensible weather here in the Troposphere.



Last winter many came to the conclusion the reason for lack of snowfall and warmer than normal temperatures was in part due to the negative QBO. However, if you remember we saw a very early Stratospheric Warming Event around Thanksgiving. At the time, many felt an early start to winter would happen in mid-December. No matter how much the Stratospheric PV was purturbed and displaced off the Arctic, the overall conditions in the Troposphere were not responding and many attributed that to the decoupling of the MJO - it never responded to what historically would happen in phases 7-8-1 - and the very anomalous -QBO (record low levels).

This image nicely shows how the QBO has trended from a westerly to easterly phase. In my research this is the first Fall the QBO has been positive since 2017. I'll be transparent and say I am not sure exactly what this could mean for us, but I will say it's refreshing to see a signal get out of a very anomalous (very negative) phase and normalize a bit. Normal can only mean better, right?



The global sea surface anomaly temperature map looks very very good for those seeking colder than normal weather. The ENSO region looks Modoki-like, which means the Dateline or central region of the ENSO (region 3.4) is the warmest region of them all. Central warming along the equatorial Pacific promotes convection which promotes ridging to occur near the EPO/PNA regions. A Modoki El Nino is on the table this winter and one we'll have to keep an eye on. Also, there is significant warmth found in the north-central Pacific and near Greenland. If these temps hold true there could be plenty of high latitude blocking that tries to develop this winter.

There is a lot more to look at. I'll have more either today or later this week.

[amugs]

Not to mention huge uptick in Volcano's andbtheir affects on the stratosphere thus our weather and low solar, irradiance, cosmic ray influx, poles shifting and celestial alignment cycles.

Love the SST look, the QBO at 50,30 look good and slowly transgressing to a normal range and easterly direction possible that historically analogues shows a more favorable winter ala 1962-63,84-85,09 -10,02-03 and dare I say 95-96. Time will tell.

[mwilli]

1962-63(age 8-9)in bklyn those snowstorms were knee deep.84-85.09.same thing(30-31 and 54 got a snowblower by then but im in hempstead now)if this is what"might"happen"this site is gonna be busyyyy..lol

[amugs]

Impacts gonna be here for some time

[Frank_Wx]

Very interesting Mugs. When I look back at the 2008-2009 season it looks like we received average or slightly above average snowfall in the area. Here's the temperature map:



The deep cold anomalies in western Canada down into the Great Lakes suggest La Nina base pattern. Indeed that was the case. The lack of PNA ridging at the time kept the major cold off to our N&W.



Obviously this year is different. We're headed toward a solar minimum with an ENSO base state of neutral to El Nino (maybe Modoki). That could push those deep cold anomalies into our region.

[Frank_Wx]

NOAA released their winter outlook. It may seem like they are calling for a warmer than normal winter, but this is a nice look for us. Several reasons why:





The above normal temps in the PAC NW and again in Maine suggest severe high latitude blocking (-EPO/-NAO). Hopefully not so severe it actually crushes our storms to the south. The above normal shown in Florida means a SE Ridge tries to also develop (El Nino base state) so storms will have a path right up the coastline. Right now, I think the DC-PHL region are in this winters cross hairs based off what I'm seeing.

[Frank_Wx]

One of the most interesting phenomena's happening currently is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD measures sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean. To understand the different between a -IOD and +IOD, read here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/

Check out the SSTA's in the IO right now:



This is a signature +IOD look. Read their latest analysis here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Last time we saw a +IOD of at least +1 degrees in the Fall and saw it crash into the negatives was winter of 2015-2016.



The outlook this year also shows a crash by the time we get to January.



January 2016 CPK saw about 28" of snow.

[Frank_Wx]

The possible coastal storm next week is still showing on the models. Right now, confidence is low on any snow for our area because 500mb looks kinda crappy. But let's see what model runs this weekend show.

[amugs]

This is something very interesting I found. Being a sun worshiper that I am in more ways than one we are heading into a Grand Solar Minimum. These effects will be like a Giant Squid to this planet and us and we are seeing things already - crop issues, massive hail storms, severe weather extremes, Meridional jet stream, low solar activity, uptick in Volcanic and EQ 's, droughts and famines to ensue later. This has been historically proven and happened time and time again.
Here is the interesting reconstructed 500MB map - Warm Arctic region with blocking over teh top forcing the cold arctic air southward,
Where do I sign for this for winter??

[Frank_Wx]

Man the evidence in more ways than one points to a very active, cold and snowy winter...

[HectorO]

The possible coastal storm next week is still showing on the models. Right now, confidence is low on any snow for our area because 500mb looks kinda crappy. But let's see what model runs this weekend show.

God please no. No snow in October, we know where that road leads.

[docstox12]

I agree, Hector, let's have a normal temp and rainy period until mid December when the first snow then comes.

[amugs]

Snow for higher elevation and mountains is possible. To the coastal main remains slim at tjis time but one thing is coming up in time and looks to have staying power is the early November pattern showing a Negative EPO, Negative NAO or Greenland Block, a cold arctic Canadaian cross flow or dump and a SE ridge that is being kept at BAY by the N EPO/Postive PNA couplet. First snows could very well happen after this pattern gets locked in for a few days if there is a storm to accompany.

Mugs"stradamous" looking into his snow weenie globe ays 1st week of Nov for NNJ to see some snow and stickage. NYC maybe snow but stickage is a crapshoot.

[algae888]

Looks like a big fail by the models with the alleged Cold Shot coming last week of October into the first week of November. The Ridge in the EPO region is not orientated favorably and is super strong so that energy instead of coming east is dropping down into the Southwest causing the South East Ridge to pop. This is eerily similar to last winter when the 10 plus day guidance showed a favorable pattern coming but never materialized. I will say there is a big difference between the EPs and the GEFS. The latter brings the cold in here day6 the former not till day 10. So my take that it comes in day 8 and not as cold as was once thought as the GFS is usually too fast and the Euro usually holds back energy in the Southwest. So look for above normal temperatures for the next week or so

[Snow88]

Looks like a big fail by the models with the alleged Cold Shot coming last week of October into the first week of November. The Ridge in the EPO region is not orientated favorably and is super strong so that energy instead of coming east is dropping down into the Southwest causing the South East Ridge to pop. This is eerily similar to last winter when the 10 plus day guidance showed a favorable pattern coming but never materialized. I will say there is a big difference between the EPs and the GEFS. The latter brings the cold in here day6 the former not till day 10. So my take that it comes in day 8 and not as cold as was once thought as the GFS is usually too fast and the Euro usually holds back energy in the Southwest. So look for above normal temperatures for the next week or so

It's fine because the cold can wait until mid to late November

[dkodgis]

https://wpdh.com/more-snow-events-predicted-for-hudson-valley-this-winter/?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=newsletter_18425827

[billg315]

Almost hope it fizzles because a November snowstorm did not bode well for us last year . . . but the last GFS run is showing our first snowstorm of the year on Sunday, November 10. Still in fantasy-land so it could vanish by the next run, but worth noting only because we've all been waiting for that first glimpse of an area-wide snow event on the models.

[jmanley32]

Almost hope it fizzles because a November snowstorm did not bode well for us last year . . . but the last GFS run is showing our first snowstorm of the year on Sunday, November 10. Still in fantasy-land so it could vanish by the next run, but worth noting only because we've all been waiting for that first glimpse of an area-wide snow event on the models.

Also showed on 06z, and again on 12z both were 6+ and o6z was a godzilla and bullseye was immediate NYC area, highly doubt it but it happened Nov. 17th last year 7 inches here in Yonkers and a disaster as you all remember areawide but yonkers had the most chaos.

[amugs]

Nice trough over the east here - cold air dump here

[amugs]

Weak MJO at best





SST - Modoki EL Nino looking good Regio 1.2 cooler - much cooler than 3.4 and 4 regions which will enhance yuor vertical lift, t-storms and drive the MJO in phase 8-1-2- which pronounces a trough over the NE.







13-14/14-15 look to SST's with teh blob in he NE PAC up by the Gulf of Alaska


This will enhance the Gulf of Alaskan LP and create the N EPO which is a pacific block and help enhance the Meridional Flow (Jet stream) - buckling of the jet so you get cold air to pour in from the arctic polar regions and an active storm track

[Frank_Wx]

Over the last 7 days there has been intense SST cooling in the eastern ENSO region while slight warming happens in the central region. As Mugs points out, good news for a possible Modoki style El Nino. Also noteworthy is the SST warming happening in the north central Pacific. The warm 'blob' of above normal SSTA's could have a big impact on where the ridge sets up this winter. Need to get the EPO/PNA regions cooperating.



Beyond SSTA's we still have to pay close attention to our northern friend...the Stratosphere.



If latest forecasts are to be believed zonal winds in the Stratosphere are headed positive, an indication the PV will be strong over the Arctic to start out the winter.

Mike Ventrice said its actually stronger than normal for this time of year.



This is not abnormal. The SPV has to be stronger in the beginning of the winter. As we move into late December we hope to see the SPV weaken and undergo a SSW (sudden stratospheric warming). That's the point at which the TPV (tropospheric polar vortex) also becomes susceptible to disruption (-AO/-NAO). We don't want to see the SPV get too strong or it could delay the pattern change to sustained cold/snowy conditions in our area. However the image posted above is just a forecast from the GFS. Not paying much attention to it now.

[Frank_Wx]

Official start to winter when the SPV forms and all eyes turn toward the zonal wind charts. To warm or not to warm...?



SPV will be stronger than normal to start out the winter. Any SSW will take place toward Christmas IMO.

[aiannone]

Looks like next weekend, cool temps make a lock. Highs in the low 50s even some upper 40s and lows in the 30s

[algae888]

That's some pretty impressive cold showing up on guidance for next week already pretty impressive cold out west with all time record lows being reported and several snow fall events out there Chicago is also due for its first snowfall on Thursday. Only a matter of time before it gets here on a side note with the record low sea ice in the Arctic pretty impressive to have this much cold so early in the season even though it's not on the East Coast

[Frank_Wx]

The ridge over Alaska (-EPO) is foecasted to cut off on the latest GEFS. This will dislodge cold air from Canada into the GL and NE.



Although it will be an impressive shot of cold weather, I am not as confident that it will last long. It could be another 2-3 day short lived type of cold. Reason being the -EPO ridge breaks down on some guidance. Let's see how models look after the weekend.

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