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January 2022 Obs & Discussions

@amugs wrote:#2 please
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Fin-vf10
#2 for me please 🙏🙏
by frank 638
on Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:30 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
Replies: 426
Views: 11897

January 2022 Obs & Discussions

#2 please
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Fin-vf10
by amugs
on Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:18 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
Replies: 426
Views: 11897

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ????

@rb924119 wrote:Now that I've had a chance to glance at tonight's 00z suites coming in, I like the trends aloft even though the surface maps are not yet where I think they will end up.

00z GFS Ensemble 500mb height anomaly trend:

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-en11

00z GEM/CMC 500mb height anomaly trend:

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gem_z510


Morning everyone!!!!!  Here is the Link to Rays video he posted in the Discussions thread.  I encourage everyone to take a listen.  Its phenominal:  

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gonDCUaWVuA3Grk8Khi_qgno0tRQHRm5/view?usp=sharing

Ray phenomenal video!  Thank you.  I wish I could do video's too.  I feel like it would save me so much time.  I am; however, going to have to respectfully disagree with a couple of points you make.  Well maybe not disagree but more point out a few key areas that I did not see you comment on and what I feel are just as important, if not more important.  

I will focus on the GFS only to make my points.  Some of this was already discussed in my last write up.  Ray in your video you discuss the trough split of the Pac energy and discuss the piece ejecting out vs the piece that backs up off the WC.  It felt like you were inferring that the energy that gets ejected ends up being the energy that is our system.  This part I disagree with.  

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_0610

Above is hr6, or about 7am this am, from this am's 06z GFS.  In addition to the trough split from the Pac energy as outlined in the video, there is a second trough split associated with the trough in the Sub Trop region.  Its this energy that gets ejected that will eventually give rise to the LP that develops near or just off the coast.  The energy that gets ejected from the Pac energy ends up strung out along the boundary layer that develops from the system that passes late tomorrow night.  The other area not mentioned in the video are the two circles  not labeled.  The one over the N plains CONUS is the late Mon system that heads towards Greenland.  The one to its N is another key factor IMHO that I mentioned in my prior discussion.  Ill get back to this point shortly

Fast forward to Hr 72:

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_0613
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_0614


Above is the same image zoomed in on the CONUS view.  Notice that there ae two troughs out lined. One N of th GL and the other digging into the plains.  Each has its own pivot point.  What seems to be very clear to me in the evolution in the modeling is the positioning of that trough N of the great lakes. This feature is absolutely vital in preventing heights from increasing ahead of the system.  

Look below to Hr 81 on this mornings 6z.  BUT FIRST lets look at the same time stamp Wed 15z from yesterdays 12z GFS that I posted in my prev discussion and compare it to this mornings 06z run and pay attention to where that trough N of the GL is.  With it further east and north on yesterdays 12z run there is no resistance to the height increase from the trough digging into the Plains phasing into the boundary layer.  The result is a LP track into the Tenn Vally, and a much warmer soln on yest 12z. Vs the 6z from this am the placement of the GL trough is acting to limit the ability to raise heights leading to a colder soln relatively speaking when comp to12z yest.  


Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de29
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_0615

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de30
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_0616

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_1210
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_6z10


Briefly getting back to this point I made at the beginning of todays discussion:

The other area not mentioned in the video are the two circles  not labeled.  The one over the N plains CONUS is the late Mon system that heads towards Greenland.  The one to its N is another key factor IMHO that I mentioned in my prior discussion.  

The trend for the Monday system is to be further S from prev.  First image is yesterdays 12z map and the second is this mornings 6z both valid for 15z Wed.  

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de31
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_0617

You can see the center is now south of Greenland's SE tip compared to yesterdays 12z run where it was due east of Greenland's SE tip.  In addition to that, look at the map below.  It shows the GFS trends.  The area I have circled is the energy I have labeled #3 in the discussion maps above and you can clearly see it is trending darker blue which means lower pressure in the area just N of the GL.  Again this energy/feature offers the only resistance against the otherwise immediate surge of the warm layers as energy #2 phases with #1 because both the Pac and Atlantic pattern does not offer any real help at all.    

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_tr10

Myself, Ray(rb, Frank, Heehaw, Mugsy, Al etc., have all pointed out that we are not in a great pattern for snow.  But as I have also pointed out in the past, it can still snow in shitty patterns when things come together just right.  We just need BABY BEAR.  (My Baby Bear here on Long Island may be slightly diff than Baby bear N&W of NYC, but you get the point)

We still have a little ways to go to see how we trend last minute.  The GFS is def still the warmest and wettest soln but it is on its own at the moment and has 100% been trending colder due to the things I outlined above.  The Euro, CMC, and now NAM(although NAM still not in its wheelhouse yet) all have a much more suppressed colder soln overall.  To me the trend towards a colder soln has been clear across all models, keeping the entire region, including the immediate coast in play for accumulation, but remember very tiny changes at 500mb can lead to much larger changes at the surface for better or worse (warmer or colder)(wetter or dryer-OTS) relative to your specific location so stay tuned as we are approaching game time.

WE TRACK!!!!!  What a Face  What a Face  What a Face  

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Baby_b10
by sroc4
on Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:03 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ????
Replies: 44
Views: 2995

December 2021 Obs and Discussion

@heehaw453 wrote:Many op models showing a fairly stationary 1030mb+ High parked over Southern Quebec.  I don't think this is going to be suppressed and OTS with a decent WAR.  That gives the coastal plain a chance at some snow if that high pressure is correct.  The antecedent air mass is good for early December on this and I can tell you that high pressure CAD is often under modelled.  It will depend on how far away from the coast the storm consolidates.  Once again though NW of 95 are in a threat for several inches of snow especially I-80 and above.



Looking at 500 you can see why that makes sense and why the GFS still has the HP retreating quickly, and is warmest soln, the Euro is the most suppressed and coldest soln, and the CMC is in between.  

Here are the three global models at 500mb on approach and their respective surface depiction for the same time stamp.  All valid for 15z Wed, or 10am Wed.  Euro, CMC, and GFS.  

The set up is such that a boundary layer will set up after the Late Mond system passes NW and drags the front through.  Along the frontal boundary weak LP will develop,   black circle #1, and ride along it.  On the GFS you can see the result of #3 so far east and # 2 so far S&W relative to one another and the fact that #1 is out in front of #2 allows the boundary layer to set up    furthest N of all solns.  

The euro on the other hand is the other side of the soln cone where the proximity of both #3 to #2, forces the boundary much further S&E.  

The positioning of #1, #2, an #3 relative to each other is in between the GFS an Euro.  

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de29
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gem-al12
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Ecmwf-70

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de30
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gem-al13
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Ecmwf-71


So if you look at the GFS as the current warmest soln, and the Euro as the coldest soln, very very commonly the final soln lies somewhere in between which def bodes well for most of us to see some white gold at least, and areas N&W in line for accumulation.  

Just briefly below I expanded the 500mb view to see the location of where the system that passes Mondayends up.  Again, GFS furthest N which allows our HP to escape faster, hence the warmer soln.  Euro is the furthest S, and CMC in between.

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de31
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gem-al14
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Ecmwf-72

Im getting a little excited.


WE TRACK!!!!   What a Face
by sroc4
on Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:23 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: December 2021 Obs and Discussion
Replies: 151
Views: 6700

November 2021 Obs & Discussions

From a pro met who outlines each storm potential
The blocking is gonna be real folks and the first two storms will be disruptive to the holiday travel timeframe from the looks of it.

STORM #! - Great Lakes, Ski Resort area on NE too far west Apps runner
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  FEWEJk9XwAwmKPb?format=jpg&name=medium

This storm will help pump the Negative NAO


STORM #2
Miller B style that will have more of an effect on NE and may get snows into the elevated regions of the Tri State - back end snows at end of storm into the coast possible but we know how that plays out.

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  FEWEKNYXMAUSoSr?format=jpg&name=medium

This sets up Storm#3 possibilities
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  FEWEK2TXIAM29C3?format=jpg&name=medium
by amugs
on Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:32 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
Replies: 186
Views: 7517

February 2021 Observations and Discussions

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Went down from 14 inches otg yesterday morning to 10.5 otg this morning. This morning becomes my first day with less than a foot otg this month.

It was a really good 24 day run but not fantastic, like I've never seen, historic, or any of the other hyperbole you may read. If somehow this is it for winter, February gets an A+ and the winter as a whole gets a C. Hopefully March delivers in the HV as it usually does, then I'll adjust the grade accordingly. The first week of March is not promising at this stage.


From the imby perspective, this fairly well describes my winter too. Accumulating snow in March is prob more normal than not on a year by year basis down here, but at present I’m figuring that’s a wrap for this year.

Major theme: Snowfall returns!

Minor theme #1: A Ferocious February! (Technically, not a true statement imby, as my highest measurement was actually 5+” on Jan 31, but by Wxecutive Order, that counts towards Feb for this year.)

Minor theme #2: Big time near misses for Coastal Ocean.

My overall grade at this point probably a B, a lot better than the D and F from the previous two years.

The tracking this winter has been amazing too! What a show you guys have put on for us winter weenies!! Thank you so much for the time put in and expertise/wisdom shared!
by SENJsnowman
on Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:22 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: February 2021 Observations and Discussions
Replies: 134
Views: 5704

Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call

@amugs wrote:Temps down to 31* it starting to ice over - and they just starting plowing our roads - WTH!


Really? Our plows have been done for a while, a few out salting now. Btw, the head of your DPW was our #2 man here in Westwood.
by Dunnzoo
on Sun Feb 07, 2021 6:08 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Super Bowl Snowstorm, Part II: First Call
Replies: 334
Views: 12193

Long Range Discussions 21.0

@jmanley32 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Another godzilla this weekend! Oh man, i cant win lol, i was gonna go to CT tomorrow, doesnt look like thats a good idea, then i was gonna go on fr/sat come back sun but that now doesnt look possible either lol well im all in still.


Haha! Jman, these winter storms are not making life easy on you. You might be Ok with the Fri to Sunday. I think the time frame on Sunday (though it can change) is later Sunday so maybe you can get back before it hits. Of course we're 6 days away so timing details are simply wild speculation right now.

what about tomorrow do you think it wise to get out tomorrow?

I wouldn't recommend traveling yet tomorrow. Not that I think the snow tomorrow will rival today, but with it still snowing off and on, and the snow already out there, I can imagine road crews are going to have an uphill battle to keep things clear. I'd say Wednesday is when things will clear up for travel.

good idea, ill see if i can squeeze my travel in to wed/thurs coming home Fri.  Thats prolly best bet. Plus I just put it in banter and snow day #2 for my daughter and now my wife too! I sadly am still unemployed with this stupid covid making it really hard to find a job in my field.  So im always free lol
so i moved my plans to wed and thurs, that should avoid this storm and the potential of sundays or whatever day it may come. we know superbowl storms can happen and if mugs knows anything which he does this ones comin too!! I hope the rain later this week doesnt mess this up too much.
by jmanley32
on Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:59 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Replies: 358
Views: 14140

Long Range Discussions 21.0

@billg315 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Another godzilla this weekend! Oh man, i cant win lol, i was gonna go to CT tomorrow, doesnt look like thats a good idea, then i was gonna go on fr/sat come back sun but that now doesnt look possible either lol well im all in still.


Haha! Jman, these winter storms are not making life easy on you. You might be Ok with the Fri to Sunday. I think the time frame on Sunday (though it can change) is later Sunday so maybe you can get back before it hits. Of course we're 6 days away so timing details are simply wild speculation right now.

what about tomorrow do you think it wise to get out tomorrow?

I wouldn't recommend traveling yet tomorrow. Not that I think the snow tomorrow will rival today, but with it still snowing off and on, and the snow already out there, I can imagine road crews are going to have an uphill battle to keep things clear. I'd say Wednesday is when things will clear up for travel.
good idea, ill see if i can squeeze my travel in to wed/thurs coming home Fri. Thats prolly best bet. Plus I just put it in banter and snow day #2 for my daughter and now my wife too! I sadly am still unemployed with this stupid covid making it really hard to find a job in my field. So im always free lol
by jmanley32
on Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:10 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Replies: 358
Views: 14140

Banter Thread 5.0

@Irish wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Oh thank god, the charter school pulled the plug, no school remote or in person, my daughter is screaming right now lol


How do you like the charter schools. I'm personally not a fan, at all.
they are heavy on work and teaching but shes learning a lot however we just got word on snow day #2!!! At least they are letting the kids have fun, i mean i wouldnt be able to concentrate.
by jmanley32
on Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:07 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Banter Thread 5.0
Replies: 830
Views: 14951

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

DT (Wrisk) latest Facebook post on current one:

2PM UPDATE

After looking at all the latest data ...the short-range models and the radar there are some changes to be made in the forecast because there has been a decisive and significant change here at the last minute with the formation of the coastal oh.

First lets look at some regional Radars and see what is going on. This recent radar image from 12:30 PM Sunday shows the dry slot which has pushed all the way through the Shenandoah Valley and into the Washington DC Metro area with significant brakes in the snow Shield. However there is still moderate and significant snow in the Northern Neck … Fredericksburg … into southern Maryland as well as the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia … central and northern Maryland and Baltimore. SEE IMAGE 1

Also note the significant rain in northern portions of West Virginia Southern Ohio.

IMABE #2 is the radar forecast for 313PM and 5PM this afternoon. As you can see the dry slot has pushed its way up into Washington DC but has halted across the DC suburbs in Northern Virginia. It has also pushed up into Winchester and close to Hagerstown. In Central Virginia; The precipitation is mostly rain and its heavy rain in southeast Virginia eastern North Carolina and the southern Delmarva.

The short-range radar forecast shows that the snow is going to fill back in across northern Virginia during the evening hours but I am not certain if that is actually going to happen. The data says it should but I am a bit skeptical that the snow is going to build back in that much by 5 or 6 p.m. this evening in northern Virginia the northern Shenandoah Valley and DC Metro.

By 9 p.m. this snow has pushed into the North and there are just areas of sleet and light snow mixed mostly north of DC in central and Northeast Maryland. Notice that nothing is occurring south of DC or in the Shenandoah Valley or the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia IMAGE #3 And at 3 a.m. not much is going on in northern Virginia Maryland eastern portions of West Virginia and the Delmarva either. It looks pretty quiet.

The initial forecast from back on Thursday and Friday had the formation of the coastal LOW close to the Delmarva or just offshore for much of Monday. Having the coastal LOW in that position would allow for the circulation of the large coastal LOW to pull the snow down from Pennsylvania New York and New Jersey into Maryland and Northern Virginia and the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia… and probably back into the Washington DC Metro area… the northern Shenandoah Valley and perhaps central and northeast Virginia. Moreover because the coastal LOW was going to stall close to the Delmarva Peninsula it would cause easterly winds to bring milder air into southeast Massachusetts Boston Rhode Island eastern Connecticut eastern Long Island changing the snow to rain and reducing the snow amounts in those areas that significantly

However as you can see the new data clearly does NOT do that. Instead the coastal LOW is much further to the north and east. This means that the Boston and Southeastern New England area see their winds stay North or Northeast so temperatures there are cold enough to support snow and all of eastern New England gets pounded with anywhere from 12 to 18 inches of snow.

But in the Maryland DC Baltimore Northern Virginia region ...the shift of this Coastal LOW for the to the north means that any wrap around snow on Monday is going to be significantly less than earlier forecasted. in addition... the area of moderate and heavy rain in the Ohio Valley which earlier forecasted to move into Northern Virginia Baltimore central Maryland for Sunday night into Monday … is going to stay further to the north because the actual costal LOW pressure area is tracking further to the north.

We can see the shift here on the models for tomorrow. At 7 a.m. IMAGE #4
on Monday the coastal LOW is significantly further east than what the data was showing either yesterday or on Friday. There is a huge dry slot across all of Virginia Maryland and even into Southeast Pennsylvania. Only yesterday the models for producing huge snow falls in Philadelphia and Southeastern interior PA. But now it looks like even that area will see much less snow.

During the day on Monday at 1 p.m. and 5 p.m. the coastal LOW is significantly further to the north when compared to what It was showing yesterday or on Friday or on Thursday. This keeps all the heavy precipitation north of Philadelphia into northeast Pennsylvania…. New York City / North Ne Jersey and New England. But it also means that any wrap around snow showers on Monday in northern Virginia the northern Shenandoah Valley in the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia will be minor if any.
IMAGE #5

And clearly this shift means that the snow forecast map in the LAST CALL as well as the FIRST CALL forecast maps for Northern Virginia and Central Maryland and even into Southeastern Pennsylvania are probably going to bust.

WHAT THREW ME OFF (and many other mets as well )-- was that fact that last week the coastal Low was forecast to be off Norfolk on Monday NOT south of eastern Long Island NY .
by aiannone
on Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:22 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast
Replies: 706
Views: 15814

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

It's a blip ask on I wouldn't worry much if anyone sees sleet #1 it'll be brief #2 don't go out in it unless you wanna look like Freddy Kruger...
by jmanley32
on Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:11 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Replies: 595
Views: 15289

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

@sroc4 wrote:
@crippo84 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:This is just too close to something for me to lose hope completely for the 12th.  You have lot of energy at that trough on the EUS and a northern piece not too far off.  Timing is everything and if that northern piece were to drop into that it's a powder keg.  

12Z CMC

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Cmc14


100%  Def not letting it go just yet.  There is still waaay too much model to model variability with all the prev highlighted energy, as well as run to run variability within any given model.  The energy I prev labeled as #1 and #2 only begins to come ashore tonight into tomorrow am respectively.  Ill give this one until we are within about 72hrs.  give or take.  Chances still favore the miss to the south however so make sure everyone keeps expectations in check, but dont turn away just yet.  

WE TRACK!!!!  What a Face

I am confused, this is 3 days out, wouldn't we have a good idea by now if somethere were go happen? I have not yet seen a surface run that gives us a big hit except maybe a post few pages back, is there something different about this particular possible event that makes it still interesting with no hit only 72 hrs out?


Have you read all the posts about all the different pieces of energy in the atmosphere and why with the pattern we're entering any solution may not be known until a couple days in advance?


Thank You Crippo. And Jon I’ll add that I didn’t write that this am. I highlighted a key piece of the write up for you. Come on Dude.

For the record I’m still not writing it off just yet.
I been super busy so no not much time to read in depth but yeah I did see the many pieces but that seems abnormal by 3 days out usually we have a pretty darn good idea of whats go happen, so only time I can think of that we did not know to throw in towel or not was before I was on here I think was boxing Day blizzard, had no idea it had done a 180 and night b4 suddenly major storm. On the alternate side we had no idea the storm that must not be named gamve me almost no snow which everyone to the east got buried. So I guess I can see how there could be a surprise but if there is a storm no one including DOT will be prepared as news says sunny and nice.
by jmanley32
on Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:33 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Replies: 732
Views: 20410

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

@crippo84 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:This is just too close to something for me to lose hope completely for the 12th.  You have lot of energy at that trough on the EUS and a northern piece not too far off.  Timing is everything and if that northern piece were to drop into that it's a powder keg.  

12Z CMC

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Cmc14


100%  Def not letting it go just yet.  There is still waaay too much model to model variability with all the prev highlighted energy, as well as run to run variability within any given model.  The energy I prev labeled as #1 and #2 only begins to come ashore tonight into tomorrow am respectively.  Ill give this one until we are within about 72hrs.  give or take.  Chances still favore the miss to the south however so make sure everyone keeps expectations in check, but dont turn away just yet.  

WE TRACK!!!!  What a Face

I am confused, this is 3 days out, wouldn't we have a good idea by now if somethere were go happen? I have not yet seen a surface run that gives us a big hit except maybe a post few pages back, is there something different about this particular possible event that makes it still interesting with no hit only 72 hrs out?


Have you read all the posts about all the different pieces of energy in the atmosphere and why with the pattern we're entering any solution may not be known until a couple days in advance?


Thank You Crippo. And Jon I’ll add that I didn’t write that this am. I highlighted a key piece of the write up for you. Come on Dude.

For the record I’m still not writing it off just yet.
by sroc4
on Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:30 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Replies: 732
Views: 20410

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:This is just too close to something for me to lose hope completely for the 12th.  You have lot of energy at that trough on the EUS and a northern piece not too far off.  Timing is everything and if that northern piece were to drop into that it's a powder keg.  

12Z CMC

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Cmc14


100%  Def not letting it go just yet.  There is still waaay too much model to model variability with all the prev highlighted energy, as well as run to run variability within any given model.  The energy I prev labeled as #1 and #2 only begins to come ashore tonight into tomorrow am respectively.  Ill give this one until we are within about 72hrs.  give or take.  Chances still favore the miss to the south however so make sure everyone keeps expectations in check, but dont turn away just yet.  

WE TRACK!!!!  What a Face

I am confused, this is 3 days out, wouldn't we have a good idea by now if somethere were go happen? I have not yet seen a surface run that gives us a big hit except maybe a post few pages back, is there something different about this particular possible event that makes it still interesting with no hit only 72 hrs out?


Have you read all the posts about all the different pieces of energy in the atmosphere and why with the pattern we're entering any solution may not be known until a couple days in advance?
by crippo84
on Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:10 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Replies: 732
Views: 20410

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

@sroc4 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:This is just too close to something for me to lose hope completely for the 12th.  You have lot of energy at that trough on the EUS and a northern piece not too far off.  Timing is everything and if that northern piece were to drop into that it's a powder keg.  

12Z CMC

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Cmc14


100%  Def not letting it go just yet.  There is still waaay too much model to model variability with all the prev highlighted energy, as well as run to run variability within any given model.  The energy I prev labeled as #1 and #2 only begins to come ashore tonight into tomorrow am respectively.  Ill give this one until we are within about 72hrs.  give or take.  Chances still favore the miss to the south however so make sure everyone keeps expectations in check, but dont turn away just yet.  

WE TRACK!!!!  What a Face
I am confused, this is 3 days out, wouldn't we have a good idea by now if somethere were go happen? I have not yet seen a surface run that gives us a big hit except maybe a post few pages back, is there something different about this particular possible event that makes it still interesting with no hit only 72 hrs out?
by jmanley32
on Sat Jan 09, 2021 7:28 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Replies: 732
Views: 20410

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

@heehaw453 wrote:This is just too close to something for me to lose hope completely for the 12th.  You have lot of energy at that trough on the EUS and a northern piece not too far off.  Timing is everything and if that northern piece were to drop into that it's a powder keg.  

12Z CMC

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Cmc14


100%  Def not letting it go just yet.  There is still waaay too much model to model variability with all the prev highlighted energy, as well as run to run variability within any given model.  The energy I prev labeled as #1 and #2 only begins to come ashore tonight into tomorrow am respectively.  Ill give this one until we are within about 72hrs.  give or take. Chances still favore the miss to the south however so make sure everyone keeps expectations in check, but dont turn away just yet.

WE TRACK!!!! What a Face
by sroc4
on Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:41 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Replies: 732
Views: 20410

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

@sroc4 wrote:
Despite the big picture looking decent the more individual vort maxes invloved the more precise everything has to come together.  Coordinating 2 or 3 pieces of energy in a good pattern vs coordinating 5-6 pieces is exponentially more challenging. If just one is in a bad spot it induces the chain reaction to reshuffling the rest.  And as we all know small changes at 500 have big implications on the surface.  We shall see.  


Regarding the 12th -13th potential. Todays 12z GFS gives you an idea of how complex it is.  CONUS view:

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Main10



#1 is our southern system.  #2 ideally needs to dig into the back of it.  However; #3 is diving into the NE from the north compliments of the -NAO block we have as 1 & 2 appraoch.  The result is the inability for our system, #1, to raise heights out ahead of it on its own and suppression since #2 really isnt interacting until its too late.  

Now look at our PNA region aka west coast.  #4 is crashing the coast at just the wrong time.  Result is flattening the northern component of our +PNA ridge.  Result is the polar branch is flatter preventing #2 from digging into the back side of #1.  If this happened it would combine energy, aka phase, which means stronger storm.  Stronger storm = better chance to raise heights out ahead.  Raised heights out ahead = storm comes north up the coast.  

As if 5 pieces of energy wasnt enough to coordinate.  Lets zoom out a bit.  North America View:

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Na_mai10

You can see the -NAO ridge is causing a major bottle neck of the energy (#6) in the N Atlantic.  This is a good thing in general but Ive said it before sometimes too much of as good thing is a bad thing.  In this case can lead to supressed strom tracks.  ESP hen the Pac isnt cooperating which is the case in this image.  

Look west.  Wave after wave of energy is traversing the N Pac and crashing the west coast (8 to 7 to 4).  The result is a PNA ridge that tries to amplify but consistently gets knowcked down.  Timing has to be perfect with 1 and 2 as they approach the EC when you have such strong blocking in the NAO region otherwise the result is a flatened flow across the northern teir of the CONUS preventing N energy (ie: #2) from digging.  

Now here is the thing.  We often times get storms to come up when the NAO is relaxing.  The reason is as it relaxes it allows our system to come up because it doesnt push so hard.  We fortunately have the NAO forecast on both Euro and GFS ensembles to go from a -3 deviation to a -1 deviation.  Will this be enough of a relaxation to our NE to allow our system to come north "enough" is yet to be determined.  

Dont let the specific verbage from Ray confuse you.  He is 100% correct in his idea that the chance isnt great given everything I'm showing above and just how many pieces of energy have to coordinate, BUT there is a chance.  And its a decent chance IMHO.  I believe models will correct as we get towards saturday or so showing a little more digging of #2 and perhaps a little more interaction between #1 and #2.  I also think we see energy like #3 change in the modeling to be out of the way a little more.  Again is it enough to make it work...odd favor against it at this time IMHO.
by sroc4
on Thu Jan 07, 2021 1:33 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Replies: 732
Views: 20410

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

@Frank_Wx wrote:A couple of things:

1. How many consecutive days did the GFS try to suppress the storm? Yesterday it made subtle shifts NW, and the EURO made a shift SE, and we thought they were meeting in the middle for consensus. Turns out, GFS has been wrong all along (so it seems after today's run), which begs the question why we even look at it??

2. It appears the NW shift is real, and many areas including CNJ/SNJ will see their forecasted snow amounts drop considerably on my final call map, but I am still thinking we're not done with seeing models move around. I don't think the final solution is shown on the models yet. It's possible this storm comes even MORE NW, given the negative trends we're seeing with the 50/50 and H5 trough, OR the models decide to tick back S-SE in response to the HP to the north.

3. I know point #2 sounded political or a typical "non-wrong" response, but there really is so much uncertainty with several features. I called some of them out in point #2, but the biggest question mark is where the 700mb and 850mb track. Ultimately that will depend on what the 500mb ULL decides to do too. We have not seen enough consistency from any one model to truly have a feel for this storm yet.

4. This just reminds you that people like RB and others are an asset to this board, because they can call BS on some of these model runs in an instant!

Let's see what the rest of today brings. Also, just a reminder to keep banter comments in the banter thread.


Great post, Frank! If I may, I’d like to follow up with some additional comments:

1. I agree that all of the money that NCEP invested has been a waste on the GFS - they never fixed the underlying problems, just revamped them. That said, it’s a tool to be used for guidance, just like they all are. It’s up to forecasters to interpret them and their output and make a forecast, but I think (and this is NOT IN ANY WAY DIRECTED AT YOU) too many people forget that, especially mainstream/social media, etc.

2. I agree on all accounts. Typically when you see big adjustments, there is usually a bit of follow-up response in the opposite direction later on, though of much lesser magnitude. It’s also unclear if it takes another cycle to slow the apparent trend before reversing (meaning 12z runs tomorrow would reflect the small reversal after another, much smaller northwest shift/maintenance of current run at 00z tonight), or it happens tonight at 00z. However, I personally favor a general maintenance/slight further northwest correction of some guidance based on my ideas.

3. My sentiments for this are pretty much reflected in the first point - every forecaster is different in his/her approach and comfort level with implementing subjectivity, so, I personally don’t see your response as necessarily political or “not-wrong”. You put an initial call out just like I did. You put hard numbers down and took a stance. If you end up changing that, it’s not because you were flip-flopping, it’s because things changed your analysis. Nothing wrong with that, especially when the factors that may lead to changes were highlighted and discussed in your preliminary forecast. I don’t think anybody could find fault with that.

4. A sincere thank you for your comments, as well as for everybody else’s. I LOVE being here and being able to just bounce ideas around and have enjoyable debates about them. That’s what it’s all about, as well as trying to hone our skills in the process. This crowd is so much better than other places I’ve been, and as I said, this will be the only forum that I post on from now on because we can have such enjoyable and free-flowing debates, no matter the level of knowledge or skill. There are no egos here. All of that said, I find it important to point out that I learned from you all starting back on the old ABC7 forum. You taught me about pattern recognition, and how to look at the atmosphere as an interconnected machine with all of the cogs turning together, not as separate entities, which was something that I never even heard about at that time. So, for everything that I’ve learned and been able to develop further and then share back, that’s all because of you guys. I want to make that clear Smile

Lastly, the storm hasn’t happened yet. Like you said, let’s see what happens over the next 18 hours.
by rb924119
on Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:51 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
Replies: 297
Views: 12699

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

@Frank_Wx wrote:A couple of things:

1. How many consecutive days did the GFS try to suppress the storm? Yesterday it made subtle shifts NW, and the EURO made a shift SE, and we thought they were meeting in the middle for consensus. Turns out, GFS has been wrong all along (so it seems after today's run), which begs the question why we even look at it??

2. It appears the NW shift is real, and many areas including CNJ/SNJ will see their forecasted snow amounts drop considerably on my final call map, but I am still thinking we're not done with seeing models move around. I don't think the final solution is shown on the models yet. It's possible this storm comes even MORE NW, given the negative trends we're seeing with the 50/50 and H5 trough, OR the models decide to tick back S-SE in response to the HP to the north.

3. I know point #2 sounded political or a typical "non-wrong" response, but there really is so much uncertainty with several features. I called some of them out in point #2, but the biggest question mark is where the 700mb and 850mb track. Ultimately that will depend on what the 500mb ULL decides to do too. We have not seen enough consistency from any one model to truly have a feel for this storm yet.

4. This just reminds you that people like RB and others are an asset to this board, because they can call BS on some of these model runs in an instant!

Let's see what the rest of today brings. Also, just a reminder to keep banter comments in the banter thread.


This tweet talks about #3

by Frank_Wx
on Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:21 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
Replies: 297
Views: 12699

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

A couple of things:

1. How many consecutive days did the GFS try to suppress the storm? Yesterday it made subtle shifts NW, and the EURO made a shift SE, and we thought they were meeting in the middle for consensus. Turns out, GFS has been wrong all along (so it seems after today's run), which begs the question why we even look at it??

2. It appears the NW shift is real, and many areas including CNJ/SNJ will see their forecasted snow amounts drop considerably on my final call map, but I am still thinking we're not done with seeing models move around. I don't think the final solution is shown on the models yet. It's possible this storm comes even MORE NW, given the negative trends we're seeing with the 50/50 and H5 trough, OR the models decide to tick back S-SE in response to the HP to the north.

3. I know point #2 sounded political or a typical "non-wrong" response, but there really is so much uncertainty with several features. I called some of them out in point #2, but the biggest question mark is where the 700mb and 850mb track. Ultimately that will depend on what the 500mb ULL decides to do too. We have not seen enough consistency from any one model to truly have a feel for this storm yet.

4. This just reminds you that people like RB and others are an asset to this board, because they can call BS on some of these model runs in an instant!

Let's see what the rest of today brings. Also, just a reminder to keep banter comments in the banter thread.
by Frank_Wx
on Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:16 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
Replies: 297
Views: 12699

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

@Frank_Wx wrote:My main focus is how Monday’s storm behaves. It will pretty much determine the outcome of Wednesday’s storm. We’re going to see models between today and Tuesday try to track the low over our area (meaning rain) and even out to sea. I will be shocked if the track doesn’t change at all between now and then.


Ah you went there. lol. This is my big anxiety right now. I love the projected track of this Wednesday storm and the timing with the cold air coming in courtesy of the High Pressure building in Canada, but I'm still nervous due to Monday's storm and the fact that we never really get a good grip on storm #2 until storm #1 plays out. So there is a part of me that will remain nervous until the Monday storm has run its course.
by billg315
on Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:33 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Replies: 589
Views: 15518

Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

POST #2
AO LR on EURO
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Ecmwf_weeklies_all2_avg_ao_box_2115200(1)

GEFS
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  1602201600-LF48C3nqtP0

NEW GEFS EXTENDED
EPO - WOOP WOOP - neutral to Negative allows for cooler conditions and colder conditions to enter from teh arctic into the Central and Eastern US

EURO WEEKLEIS says I concur but ia m slightly positive
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  1602115200-Y540gN8PTW0
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  1602201600-MXGmc92mnng

PNA GEFS Keeps it positive
Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  1602201600-TKKJVnCN04o

SUN SOLAR HIT 200 SPOTLESS DAYS!!! The two new solar sunspots are very weak and one doesn't even have dark spots but has the polarity so they are classifying them as sunspots. This si 5-6th time this year they have done this. I call BS.

Daily Sun: 10 Oct 20

Sunspots AR2774 and AR2775 belong to new Solar Cycle 25, but they are small and pose no threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 24
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 10 Oct 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2020 total: 203 days (72%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)

2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 10 Oct 2020

We'll see who is better and more right in late Oct and then mid Nov!!

This means cooler, colder weather shots. Below Normal temps overall.
by amugs
on Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:05 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)
Replies: 732
Views: 20410

Long Range Thread 19.0

@Frank_Wx wrote:Here is a look at the upper level pattern valid Friday afternoon. Very clearly you can see a piece of northern and southern stream upper air energy with a full-latitude western ridge. The +PNA greatly increases our chance for a coastal storm developing Sunday-Monday next week. The problem I'm seeing that could prevent said storm from developing is the pieces of upper air energy, or 500mb energy, never phase. There are reasons why that could be.

1. The southern energy is dug too far south and if a phase does happen the low pressure that develops will either be to our south or out to sea

2. The northern energy is too strong. This means it does not feel the influence of the western ridge and stays in southern Canada. No phase = no storm

3. The western ridge either collapses on future model runs or tries to propagate east too soon, basically disrupting the downstream pattern and pieces of energy from phasing.

4. Similar to #1, a phase does happen, however the coastal low that develops still never makes it up the coast because the blocking to our north is too strong. We would want the phase to happen near the Gulf coast or at that longitude somewhere, because if it happens east of there the block will shun the storm east.

Topics tagged under 2 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Capture



Either #1 or #2 are going to play out, and unfortunately, neither would mean a coastal storm hitting our area. Still some time for this one but odds greatly diminished. The Pacific upper level pattern not conducive for east coast snowstorms right now.
by Frank_Wx
on Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:31 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Long Range Thread 19.0
Replies: 698
Views: 19868

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