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Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

HRRR and #K NAM both have snow tomorrow morning that may be an inch. It will lead to slick driving conditions being so cold!

Topics tagged under k on NJ Strong Weather Forum  2.png.a70639a7fe8097a2415a02a3151daf69



Topics tagged under k on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Nam3km11

Topics tagged under k on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Hrrr_r10

by amugs
on Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:56 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'
Replies: 756
Views: 27533

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

heehaw453 wrote:
amugs wrote:Heehaw teh NAM for several runs had rain up to Vermont and the #K and HRRR said hold on tehre bucky as I pointed out last night. It also had massive mixing to Lake Erie. It did start to pick up on teh mid level warmth but it was its brother 3K and HRRR that have said it woudl be a tick or two colder and the NWNJ from Western Bergen County/Passaic County up and over would be a fight between cold air hnaging on and warm air intrusion.

Pretty Cool to see





Mugs if this 1034 H over Quebec stays around a bit longer then I agree there is an opportunity for more snow as the cold air can hang on a bit longer.  Problem is it's not supposed to.  The TPV just starts clearing the deck and kicking out the H as well the 50/50 low.  It's provides a clear path for the ULL to come north.



Topics tagged under k on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Mesosc10


Oh brother I hear ya my thoughts are the NAM was very aggressive yesterday with the warm tongue and has since backed off and the cold air keeps creeping more S. We are sadly going to rain but if we can hang on however long as we can its a win in this situation.
Well see what happens as we move through this afternoon if this is true or not but ultimately we go over to rain.
by amugs
on Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:48 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
Replies: 559
Views: 21643

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

Ticking colder on #K High Res NAM - this is interesting for the regions I said and Hee haw mentioned above - need to see teh 700 and 925 levels.

Topics tagged under k on NJ Strong Weather Forum  7e9c55ab-d5ad-424b-8a23-205a94731820.gif.bee8a852ab15a1d6d070a8a97c8a83d5

Yes they do go over and warm as the ULL hits. We get about 5 hours of Snows up here CP and DOC you get about 6-7 hours then ice then rain as temps soar to low 40's.



by amugs
on Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:44 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
Replies: 559
Views: 21643

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

amugs wrote:Heehaw teh NAM for several runs had rain up to Vermont and the #K and HRRR said hold on tehre bucky as I pointed out last night. It also had massive mixing to Lake Erie. It did start to pick up on teh mid level warmth but it was its brother 3K and HRRR that have said it woudl be a tick or two colder and the NWNJ from Western Bergen County/Passaic County up and over would be a fight between cold air hnaging on and warm air intrusion.

Pretty Cool to see





Mugs if this 1034 H over Quebec stays around a bit longer then I agree there is an opportunity for more snow as the cold air can hang on a bit longer.  Problem is it's not supposed to.  The TPV just starts clearing the deck and kicking out the H as well the 50/50 low.  It's provides a clear path for the ULL to come north.



Topics tagged under k on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Mesosc10
by heehaw453
on Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:40 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
Replies: 559
Views: 21643

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

Heehaw teh NAM for several runs had rain up to Vermont and the #K and HRRR said hold on tehre bucky as I pointed out last night. It also had massive mixing to Lake Erie. It did start to pick up on teh mid level warmth but it was its brother 3K and HRRR that have said it woudl be a tick or two colder and the NWNJ from Western Bergen County/Passaic County up and over would be a fight between cold air hnaging on and warm air intrusion.

Pretty Cool to see



by amugs
on Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:27 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
Replies: 559
Views: 21643

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