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Long Range Thread 25.0

MattyICE wrote:I have little doubt that we snap out of this persistent, unfavorable pattern. Maybe the stratosphere helps us do that or maybe it’s the weakening Nina. Regardless, something will swing the pendulum the other way. The problem is that could very easily mean a cold, stormy, rainy, dreary April. I don’t have the statistics handy, but I would be shocked if we just continued this way all the way through a warm spring and hot summer. Obviously the best of hope would result in maybe a 2-3 week slightly more favorable late winter period in mid-March, but then the usual caveats apply (wavelengths, track, sun angle, more daylight etc…). While I hope for that scenario since that’s all we really have left to hope for, We know it’s not a good spot to be in when we’re hoping on a SSWE Hail Mary.

True words spoken. Also we are starting the transition to a Nino state which would put a knock to the SE Ridge as well. But this is quite inteteresting from Dr Amy Butler. One thing that Dr. Dilley made point to is that there maybe a couple of cold shots left for the NE, in and out but still there nonetheless. Believes around the 23rd for one.

(1/3) There are some #SSWs that are clearly driven from the the bottom up (from atmospheric waves associated with mountains, land-sea contrast, and persistent weather patterns), but this one to me is of the "top-down" variety. pic.twitter.com/UvZ7AH6n4G
— Dr. Amy H Butler (@DrAHButler) February 10, 2023