Re: January 2024 Observations and Discussion

by **Irish** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:23 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Oh madonne the NAM!!

That looks like a CNJ (really most of the state) crush job, no? How likely is that at this point, being within 36 hours? Is this a sign that we're moving in the right direction. Are things coming together better than expected?

Separate thread...

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:25 pm

BTW at the end of the HRRR 48 hr 00z run it is still snowing so those numbers aren't even done. 00z NAM has the LP much further west if my eyes are seeing things right.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:30 pm

Very nice look so far! And no Irish looks good for you and even NYC too.

January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 13 Nam3km37

by **Irish** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:31 pm

In those images above that Frank posted, it looks as if the low pushed any further west that the coast would be entering into taint/mixing territory.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:32 pm

Irish wrote:In those images above that Frank posted, it looks as if the low pushed any further west that the coast would be entering into taint/mixing territory.

I think the coast will be fine, its gonna be really cold and 850s are go be -8 to -7. So high ratios 12-15:1 as mugs stated earlier, the NAM is still well offshore but it did shift sig west which impacted the Nurlun trough it looks like.

by **Irish** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:36 pm

The coastal low looks much closer to the coast, no? That could be a game changer.

Is the lead energy being incorporated into the trough?

When does the RGEM run and are others joining the party on this thought?

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:37 pm

Height h5 negative tilt makes me Laughing

January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 13 Namh510

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:39 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Oh madonne the NAM!!

the h5 tilt says it all.

by tomsriversnowstorm Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:40 pm

I agree we don’t want this to come anymore west.

Irish wrote:The coastal low looks much closer to the coast, no? That could be a game changer.

It's the lead energy being incorporated into the trough?

When does the RGEM run and are others joining the party on this thought?

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:40 pm

3k nam is ehh

January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 13 Qpf_ac17

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:41 pm

NAM bs run? Thoughts?

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:42 pm

heehaw453 wrote:NAM bs run? Thoughts?

Curious to see RGEM. NAM and HRRR are actually in the same camp. Although we are talking about the LR HRRR. Mesos were first to sniff out the dynamics of the last event so let's see.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:42 pm

aiannone wrote:3k nam is ehh

huh, no change for most in terms of more snow. Actually for the south shore if higher rations thats 10 inchs for them

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:43 pm

aiannone wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:NAM bs run? Thoughts?

Curious to see RGEM. NAM and HRRR are actually in the same camp. Although we are talking about the LR HRRR. Mesos were first to sniff out the dynamics of the last event so let's see.

But the last even overall busted pretty low most places, i think highest was 3.5?

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:3k nam is ehh

huh, no change for most in terms of more snow.

Take it ease. 0z NAM was only one run of one model. Subtle differences will make a big change in outcome. We have to see 12z runs tomorrow. This is a classic thread the needle event. Small details matter.

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:44 pm

Irish wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Why is there no thread for Friday's storm?

Why do you need a seperate thread Irish? You may not be superstitious but there are many who are. It’s a discussion thread and an observation thread. I know it may sound silly to some but for many this next statement makes all the sense in the world. Please for the love of God and old man winter please don’t start a thread for this one.

Honestly, I think the exact opposite of you guys. I'm not superstitious at all. The weather and how it pans out is not reliant at all on whether or not this forum starts a separate storm thread. For me part of the build-up and excitement and thrill of the hunt (whether or not it comes to fruition) is the start of a separate, dedicated thread for a storm we're tracking.

I also feel that if we don't start a separate thread then it removes the intensity of the hunt and is basically delivering the message that the upcoming storm isn't significant and not worthy of our attention, even if that's not the case. Not having one takes the wind out of my sails a bit.

However, this is not my board and I'm not they only one to consider, especially when it comes to folks being superstitious, so the leaders here will do what they decide to do and I will follow and enjoy the best I can.

Sounds to me you’re just as superstitious as the rest of us loons. Lol. If you weren’t then who cares where we post about it? January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 13 1f61c

January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 13 1f61c

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:45 pm

aiannone wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:3k nam is ehh

huh, no change for most in terms of more snow.

Take it ease. 0z NAM was only one run of one model. Subtle differences will make a big change in outcome. We have to see 12z runs tomorrow. This is a classic thread the needle event. Small details matter.

Oh no, I understand the way I stated it was misunderstood, I meant it looked like a better run but the output wasn't such for qpf. I am not taking it by one run no way.

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:47 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:NAM bs run? Thoughts?

Curious to see RGEM. NAM and HRRR are actually in the same camp. Although we are talking about the LR HRRR. Mesos were first to sniff out the dynamics of the last event so let's see.
But the last even overall busted pretty low most places, i think highest was 3.5?

Let’s not discuss last storm details Jon. Plus you only bust low when you end up with under the forecast; not when you don’t reach the high end of the forecast. General 1-3” was forecast and that hit area wide. A few low and even fewer higher.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:48 pm

Sometimes the NAM can see this type of evolution before most models. But what struck me with this run is the trough was able to dig more and raise heights out ahead. that allowed it to capture the energy out ahead which exploded it as it hit the coast. interesting run.

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:50 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Sometimes the NAM can see this type of evolution before most models. But what struck me with this run is the trough was able to dig more and raise heights out ahead. that allowed it to capture the energy out ahead which exploded it as it hit the coast. interesting run.

Hopefully we aren’t just being NAM’ed. I think it goes without saying that we need to hold the excitement just a little for now. Cautious optimism

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:51 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:NAM bs run? Thoughts?

Curious to see RGEM. NAM and HRRR are actually in the same camp. Although we are talking about the LR HRRR. Mesos were first to sniff out the dynamics of the last event so let's see.
But the last even overall busted pretty low most places, i think highest was 3.5?

Let’s not discuss last storm details Jon. Plus you only bust low when you end up with under the forecast; not when you don’t reach the high end of the forecast. General 1-3” was forecast and that hit area wide. A few low and even fewer higher.

Okay my mistake I could sworn it was higher at the game time. But lets not split hairs on it. My point was that I was not taking one run verbatim and freaking out. I was meerly stating that the run looked good to me but the qpf did not increase at all except far southern jrsy. We will see what tomorrow brings.

by **Irish** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:52 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Why is there no thread for Friday's storm?

Why do you need a seperate thread Irish? You may not be superstitious but there are many who are. It’s a discussion thread and an observation thread. I know it may sound silly to some but for many this next statement makes all the sense in the world. Please for the love of God and old man winter please don’t start a thread for this one.

Honestly, I think the exact opposite of you guys. I'm not superstitious at all. The weather and how it pans out is not reliant at all on whether or not this forum starts a separate storm thread. For me part of the build-up and excitement and thrill of the hunt (whether or not it comes to fruition) is the start of a separate, dedicated thread for a storm we're tracking.

I also feel that if we don't start a separate thread then it removes the intensity of the hunt and is basically delivering the message that the upcoming storm isn't significant and not worthy of our attention, even if that's not the case. Not having one takes the wind out of my sails a bit.

However, this is not my board and I'm not they only one to consider, especially when it comes to folks being superstitious, so the leaders here will do what they decide to do and I will follow and enjoy the best I can.

Sounds to me you’re just as superstitious as the rest of us loons. Lol. If you weren’t then who cares where we post about it?

Sounds valid. However, it's not being superstitious, it's being OCD a control freak. For me this is not the thread to discuss an individual storm, so it kinda irks me. But I'm managing through it just fine. Wink

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:53 pm

For ol' times sakes : )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTXyXuqfBLA

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:59 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Sometimes the NAM can see this type of evolution before most models. But what struck me with this run is the trough was able to dig more and raise heights out ahead. that allowed it to capture the energy out ahead which exploded it as it hit the coast. interesting run.

I assume that our departing storm was farther away from the trough as well allowing it to go negative?

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:00 pm

Regardless of what the 3K NAM showed at the surface it also had the trough tilted sharply negative. There was consensus on the most important thing.

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:02 pm

Irish wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Why is there no thread for Friday's storm?

Why do you need a seperate thread Irish? You may not be superstitious but there are many who are. It’s a discussion thread and an observation thread. I know it may sound silly to some but for many this next statement makes all the sense in the world. Please for the love of God and old man winter please don’t start a thread for this one.

Honestly, I think the exact opposite of you guys. I'm not superstitious at all. The weather and how it pans out is not reliant at all on whether or not this forum starts a separate storm thread. For me part of the build-up and excitement and thrill of the hunt (whether or not it comes to fruition) is the start of a separate, dedicated thread for a storm we're tracking.

I also feel that if we don't start a separate thread then it removes the intensity of the hunt and is basically delivering the message that the upcoming storm isn't significant and not worthy of our attention, even if that's not the case. Not having one takes the wind out of my sails a bit.

However, this is not my board and I'm not they only one to consider, especially when it comes to folks being superstitious, so the leaders here will do what they decide to do and I will follow and enjoy the best I can.

Sounds to me you’re just as superstitious as the rest of us loons. Lol. If you weren’t then who cares where we post about it?

Sounds valid. However, it's not being superstitious, it's being OCD a control freak. For me this is not the thread to discuss an individual storm, so it kinda irks me. But I'm managing through it just fine.

Potato, poe Ta toe. Lol. We’ve def discussed smaller storms in the observation thread before; esp during active years when there were plenty of big ones to track. I hear what your saying though. Just give me this one. If it turns out we all get crushed by 10” you’ll thank me and perhaps believe. Lol. If it’s a dud then no harm no foul and I’ll be the first to start a thread on the next one to track.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:03 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Sometimes the NAM can see this type of evolution before most models. But what struck me with this run is the trough was able to dig more and raise heights out ahead. that allowed it to capture the energy out ahead which exploded it as it hit the coast. interesting run.
I assume that our departing storm was farther away from the trough as well allowing it to go negative?

I think it was better n/s interaction into the trough. So more juice was added to it best I can tell.

00Z

January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 13 Ns10

18Z

January 2024 Observations and Discussion - Page 13 Ns18zp10

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