Re: Banter Thread 9.0

[sroc4]

Read this quote, and then tell me that there is no doubt that the people who claim that they have it all figured out know with 100% certainty what role, and how much of a role, the underwater geological features play on the system.  Again if you blindly say yes I still believe they know with 100% certainty after reading the below quote, then you are clearly not thinking without your bias, and/or someone is clearly doing the thinking for you.  The same problems exist in the extreme upper limits of our atmosphere.  The lack of data at these levels is just as limited as it is beneath our ocean surfaces.  

There is a simple; yet complexx formula that gives you climate change:  

Anthropogenic(man made CO2) contributions + Natural variability  = Total Climate change

The people that feed you the narrative regarding Anthropogenic contributions being 99.9% of that formula want you to believe that Natural variability is somewhat of a fixed number, such that when you look at the changes from man over say the last 100 years there is no way to not come to the conclusion that man is responsible for climate change.  What my argument is, along with MANY others in the field, is not that we have the man made CO2 side incorrect; but rather, that the people you claim to form "the consensus" have the other half of the equation wrong.  At a bare bones minimum it's imperative that we question if we have the natural variability side right and allow that question to be openly discussed without prejudice.  

The way science works is you let an individual form a hypothesis; then research the hypothesis; then come to a conclusion; then see if the data forming those conclusions, the methods for collecting the data, and the conclusions themselves hold up to scrutiny.  Instead in todays world any science that is contrary to the narrative gets deleted, banned, shadow banned, and labeled as misinformation.  Right now the idea that we have half the equation wrong is hypothesized, but the powers that be do not you to investigate that idea.  While I have no doubt in my mind that guys like you Irish and essexcounty pete are smart, wonderful and kind human beings, like Pete did last week your knee jerk is to try and discredit the source of contrary info instead of actually looking at and debating the actual content of the data.  Pete presents some left slanted "fact checker" trying to discredit the source as some right wing source of "misinformation" instead of the fact checker actually disputing the validity of the claims.  And people like you just believe this source cant be trusted and dont ever actually investigate the actual content delivered.  

One more time if you read the quote below and think we know with 100% certainty how the geological structures influence our planets atmosphere, then you are the one allowing your bias to control your opinion, and/or you lack the ability to critically think for yourself and require others to tell you what's real or not.  

Dont let an expert tell you what to believe.  Become an expert yourself  




The primary reason geological forces have remained hidden is insufficient monitoring. To properly calculate the effect geological forces have on our oceans, atmosphere and climate, it is necessary to improve the current monitoring system of terrestrial and the 10 million seafloor geological features.

Nearly all the monitoring of ocean floor geological features is done by the ARGO Buoy System. There are currently 3,500 buoys that float across all of our oceans. Their position is constantly recorded and then sent by the onboard PGS system.

The buoys can control their ocean depth, record ocean temperature, and record ocean salinity. Most believe that this is a sufficient amount of data to accurately measure the warming effect of the ocean floor’s geologic features. This isn’t the case.

The buoys only descend to a depth of 6,000 feet. The average depth of the Earth’s oceans is 14,000 feet. Therefore, the buoys do not descend deep enough to accurately record many dynamics of the ocean floor’s geologic features.

One Buoy Every 40,000 Square Miles
Earth’s oceans cover 139,700,000 square miles of Earth. There are 3,500 floating and sinking ARGO Buoys. This equates to one buoy every 40,000 square miles. Described another way, that’s 0.03% of the ocean surface.

There aren’t enough buoys to construct a high-definition three-dimensional map of ocean temperature and salinity.

Geologists have known for many years that all geological features such as seafloor fault segments, volcanoes, hydrothermal vent complexes, etc. turn on and off in irregular patterns.

To calculate the frequency of on-and-off periods it is necessary to leave ocean monitoring devices atop the active or dormant geological features for a long time. Currently, this is nearly impossible to achieve.

An alternative way to achieve this goal is to significantly improve the ability of satellites to measure on and off periods and develop new buoys that can descend to 14,000 feet. By integrating these two methods it will enhance our ability to record on and of periods.

The time each geological feature emits heat before turning off is an important factor in determining the total volume

My note: Its like when people slam me asking me where my proof is of all this.... I ask them where their proof is that it is not.  

[dkodgis]

https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p0h715dj/the-monster-volcanoes-hidden-beneath-italy

Several thousands of Hiroshima -level potential eruptions

[sroc4]

Unfortunately, it has everything to do with it. And the fact that you don't think it does is extremely naive and ironic. And what about me do my statements tell you other than I don't like to have discussions with people who are very far down the rabbit hole and refuse to see other perspectives?  I'm curious because these statements come off as very judgmental, defensive and narrow-minded.

Let me start by saying to both weatherbob and Doc from over in the long range thread, we have prided ourselves on this board for being able to have tough conversations about a whole host of topics over the years in a way that can remain respectful and civil in the end.  For that reason we are not going to limit conversations simply because people are scared to have them.  We need to re-learn how to speak to one another on about things that we disagree with.  That said despite my position on this board I recognize that am not immune for letting emotions from getting the better of me and saying things that go against my own mantra at times as well.  

Irish.  Regarding your statement above,   I don't like to have discussions with people who are very far down the rabbit hole and refuse to see other perspectives   There are rabbit holes on both the left and the right side of some of these conversations, but I think the more appropriate terms we need to use in today's society is "the weeds".  You and I and the rest of us are all on the same road as human beings, and there are weeds on both the left and the right side of this crazy road we are on.  For tthe vast majority of us on the road there are lies and misconceptions being told to us aout what really goes on in the weeds. But there are things going on in the weeds on both sides that are real as well.  If you are unwilling to go into the weeds, then you will never know what's actually going on there.  

There are 3 types of people today.  Those who live in the weeds.  They rarely come out to reality of the road that is human society where most of us are.  Then there are are those who don't want anything to do with the weeds at all.  They are perfectly content with believing what they believe and anything being told how and when to move forward in society.  Then there are those who are willing to go into the weeds to figure out what is just nonsense and what is real.  The weeds are a complex place though.  There are things in the weeds that are deceptive and then there are truths in those weeds.  Don't live in the weeds.  The weeds are a toxic place if you spend too much time there.  But if you are unwilling to occasionally explore the weeds then you are left to someone else telling you what is real and what is not about them.    

One of the biggest problems, and honestly what truly touches my nerves, with people on the left is this all or non ideology.  All of a sudden if you disagree with a topic from the extreme lefts narrative you are immediately lumped into a category that is labeled far right.  There is no in between anymore.  God forbid you want to go into the weeds about some of these topics today to see what the real truths are instead of letting others tell you what is real. Pick a topic...climate change, vaccines, responsible gun ownership, Trump.  I mean Half the country, 150,000,000 voted for the man.  The weeds on the left would have you believe that half the county is apparently extreme right wing and white supremacist if you voted for him. There's some truth in those weeds, but its not even close to the truth. Im willing to bet 99.9% of the people in your day to day life who voted for Trump aren't even close to extreme nor are they white supremacists.  Now the far right isn't immune from this either, but here's the difference:

Elon musk said it best with this simple illustration a couple of years ago before he bought twitter.  The far right is still the same far right, but the left has moved its goal post so far left that many who used to consider themselves leaning left now find themselves lumped into a new category as "right wing".  




Saying that Irish, and Essexcounty Pete if you're out there,  I'm sorry.  With the way you have both carried yourselves with these tough conversations it has become clear to me that while we prob lean in different directions on certain things it appears to me that we likely stand much closer to one another somewhere in the middle in our core beliefs. If we were sharing a drink and a burger on a bright sunny day in a Adirondack chair Id be willing to bet we would all be laughing and sharing way more in common than not.

So again my apologies If I have offended either of you or anyone else whos out there reading.

Scott

[Koroptim]

Perfectly said Scott. It’s the same as if you doubted the Covid vaccines a few years ago. God forbid I didn’t want to give my 3 year old daughter a shot that had around 5 months of possibility to be tested, I was labeled a right wing conspiracy theorist.

What really irks me is that the modern left preaches about diversity, but then they try to extinguish diversity of thought. At the end of the day, diversity of thought is the ONLY thing keeping this country the beacon of freedom it is to the rest of the world.

[docstox12]

Perfectly said Scott.  It’s the same as if you doubted the Covid vaccines a few years ago.  God forbid I didn’t want to give my 3 year old daughter a shot that had around 5 months of possibility to be tested, I was labeled a right wing conspiracy theorist.  

What really irks me is that the modern left preaches about diversity, but then they try to extinguish diversity of thought.  At the end of the day, diversity of thought is the ONLY thing keeping this country the beacon of freedom it is to the rest of the world.

The seeds of political division were started very early in the USA's history.
It got very vitriolic right before Lincoln was elected and resulted in a Civil War.
Back in the late 50's right before Kennedy was shot, political differences were at a minimum.The Isenhower and Kennedy Administrations were very similar, and there were no 24/7 cable news stations of the left and right inflaming people.No computers with political websites.I remember the news with guys like Huntley and Brinkley just reading from a paper what happened with NO political slants.It ran from 6:30 to 7 at night, then prime time began.People back then were happier, less mean and encouraged about the future.
People back then could speak their piece without being labeled a nazi, communist,racist,white supremecist.I hope for the future of this country we can get back to a much more civil way of life.
https://cthl.org/article/the-founding-fathers-feared-political-factions-would-tear-the-nation-apart/

[dkodgis]

"People back then were happier, less mean and encouraged about the future."

Having been part of it, having lived it, that is the best way to put it.

[Koroptim]

Social media was the death of human civility.

[weatherwatchermom]

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2024-02-27-california-sierra-snowstorm-blizzard-feet-of-snow

[sroc4]

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2024-02-27-california-sierra-snowstorm-blizzard-feet-of-snow

This really isn’t even banter. It’s def a Feb observation. While we here in the NE complain about how warm and snowless winters have been, the last several winters have been the exact opposite out west. The record snow and cold out west has been amazing out there the last few years. The long time droughts that have plagued them for so long have all but been rectified.

[jmanley32]

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2024-02-27-california-sierra-snowstorm-blizzard-feet-of-snow

This really isn’t even banter. It’s def a Feb observation. While we here in the NE complain about how warm and snowless winters have been, the last several winters have been the exact opposite out west. The record snow and cold out west has been amazing out there the last few years. The long time droughts that have plagued them for so long have all but been rectified.

OMG imagine that here, thats too much snow I think we likely can agree but 5-10 ft and 75mph winds?! As long as I could stay home and safe for a month this would be heaven.

[Quietace]

The ECMWF has made the ECMWF-AIFS, a 0.25 degree Neural Network based forecast model, publicly available on their data feed. It is now on tropical tidbits and other sites, so you may come across it.

For those that are not in the research space, the recent advances in AI, GPU, and computational efficiency has allowed meteorology to fully embrace ML over the past year or two. My PhD work actually uses ML to create probabilistic TC genesis output that is used at the NHC and JTWC. So I have seen these advancements first hand.  

The recent uses in many forecast aspects have been rather impressive, and I sat through a large number of presentations at the Annual AMS meeting in Baltimore this year that give me a lot of hope that we are going to be breaking predictability barriers soon.

Many companies are running Deep Learning based forecast models now, mostly because they are computationally much more efficient to train and implement (and can be done so using cloud based computing) than typical NWP models. I have included the January Blog post update from ECMWF if you are interested in more information. In these plots, you can see that in some aspects, the AI-based model outperforms the IFS. This model will likely be downscaled further in the near future, and will likely fully overtake IFS in overall prediction skill soon.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/aifs-blog/2024/first-update-aifs

[dkodgis]

I actually understood all this. Hope and a better tool.

[WeatherBob]

I declare that winter from now on is only Jan 1 to Feb 28 or 29. That’s it. We now have the winters like the southern inland a bit mid Atlantic! Haha! feels like it!

[Dunnzoo]

Need a little taste of winter? While they aren't getting the feet of snow that's falling in some areas, it's cool to watch this eagle pair sitting on 3 eggs that are due to hatch any day now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4-L2nfGcuE

[jmanley32]

Need a little taste of winter? While they aren't getting the feet of snow that's falling in some areas, it's cool to watch this eagle pair sitting on 3 eggs that are due to hatch any day now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4-L2nfGcuE

OMG poor eagle, those winds gotta be hurricane force, hope the tree holds up[!

[Math23x7]

Saturday, March 7th, 2020: Me, Frank, Janet and others met up at a restaurant in Morristown, NJ. Little did I know that I would not be an another social event, or even eat inside a restaurant, for well over a year afterwards. When I do have a discussion with people far into the future about what the COVID pandemic was like when it hit, this get together will without question be in the conversation.

This was us at the event. Hard to believe it has now been four years since then!

[brownie]

Saturday, March 7th, 2020: Me, Frank, Janet and others met up at a restaurant in Morristown, NJ.  Little did I know that I would not be an another social event, or even eat inside a restaurant, for well over a year afterwards.   When I do have a discussion with people far into the future about what the COVID pandemic was like when it hit, this get together will without question be in the conversation.

This was us at the event.  Hard to believe it has now been four years since then!

Yes, that’s me behind you.  I will never forget that meetup, because in addition to it being a very fun time, it was the last time I went to a restaurant or other social event for a very long time!

[amugs]

Say what you want but the cycle of the magnetic pole shift and other cycles that we have not seen in a hundreds to thousands of years is closing in.

[weatherwatchermom]

Happy Anniversary
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1888

[billg315]

Happy Anniversary
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1888

An epic storm for sure that we still talk about 130-plus years later!
Interesting feature of the storm that they make passing reference to here, is that on March 10, the day before the storm, high temperatures were in the mid-to-upper 50s across the area. I always try to remember that when we're tracking a storm and folks look at the temps the day before and say "it's going to be too warm for snow." Like the Feb. 13 storm this year, this storm was a good reminder that it's the temps during a storm that matter, not the day before.

[nutleyblizzard]

Happy Anniversary
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1888

There are two things that I often wonder if such a storm were to happen again. How far out in advance would the models sniff this out, and once the storm was imminent would the weather server sites be able to handle the extreme number of posts that would surely ensue.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Happy Anniversary
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1888

An epic storm for sure that we still talk about 130-plus years later!
Interesting feature of the storm that they make passing reference to here, is that on March 10, the day before the storm, high temperatures were in the mid-to-upper 50s across the area. I always try to remember that when we're tracking a storm and folks look at the temps the day before and say "it's going to be too warm for snow." Like the Feb. 13 storm this year, this storm was a good reminder that it's the temps during a storm that matter, not the day before.

Actually other than those couple of mild days before the storm the month of March 1888 the average temperature in NYC was 29.9 degrees. I can't even think of the last time NYC had a January or February average temperature below 30 degrees. It's been several years at least.

Different time, different climate.

[billg315]

Happy Anniversary
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1888

An epic storm for sure that we still talk about 130-plus years later!
Interesting feature of the storm that they make passing reference to here, is that on March 10, the day before the storm, high temperatures were in the mid-to-upper 50s across the area. I always try to remember that when we're tracking a storm and folks look at the temps the day before and say "it's going to be too warm for snow." Like the Feb. 13 storm this year, this storm was a good reminder that it's the temps during a storm that matter, not the day before.

Actually other than those couple of mild days before the storm the month of March 1888 the average temperature in NYC was 29.9 degrees. I can't even think of the last time NYC had a January or February average temperature below 30 degrees. It's been several years at least.

Different time, different climate.

Well, even the day of the storm. I think it got down to 8 degrees that day? When was the last time it was 8 degrees in March.

[weatherwatchermom]

Not recently...lol I just saw on the news..this March is the warmest on record and we are not even half way thru...

[billg315]

Not recently...lol I just saw on the news..this March is the warmest on record and we are not even half way thru...

Frankly, I'll take that. I don't need it to by 8 degrees in March. Not really sure I NEED it to be 8 degrees in January. lol

[dkodgis]

My irises are up an inch. Daffodils too

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Happy Anniversary
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1888

An epic storm for sure that we still talk about 130-plus years later!
Interesting feature of the storm that they make passing reference to here, is that on March 10, the day before the storm, high temperatures were in the mid-to-upper 50s across the area. I always try to remember that when we're tracking a storm and folks look at the temps the day before and say "it's going to be too warm for snow." Like the Feb. 13 storm this year, this storm was a good reminder that it's the temps during a storm that matter, not the day before.

Actually other than those couple of mild days before the storm the month of March 1888 the average temperature in NYC was 29.9 degrees. I can't even think of the last time NYC had a January or February average temperature below 30 degrees. It's been several years at least.

Different time, different climate.

Well, even the day of the storm. I think it got down to 8 degrees that day? When was the last time it was 8 degrees in March.

March 13th the day the storm was winding down, the high in NYC was 12 and the low was 6. Perfect temperatures to preserve a three foot snow pack.

With snow on the ground I like it as cold as it can get for as long as it can stay that way, with no snow on the ground at this stage of my life I just find the cold annoying.

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