12/17 Re-developing Clipper Storm

3-5in across the NYC Metro/ LI/ SCT/ SRI this Tuesday according to the 18z NAM!

Wow, I hope the NAM is right, another 2-4 to 3-5" event would be nice. BTW ended this past storm with around 5 and a half inches, was busy last night so didn't have a chance to post.

FWIW the CMC shows a slightly juicier system 3-6" with that lovely "dark green" popping up from central NJ through NYC and parts of LI. Decent ratios too for this system SFC temps in the first half being in the low to mid 20s and the second half upper 20s to lower 30s in areas.

Hey TOM!!!!!!!!! Great to hear from you, how have you been?! Yea tuesday is looking interesting. Seems like a light snowfall event is a lock at this point, but if this system can get going a plowable snowstorm is certainly possible for coastal areas. Gonna be a fun one to track. Can't wait for 0z runs tonight.

There is still quite a bit of time for this storm and these typically have a huge bust potential. One thing of concern I just noticed while browsing another forum is for NYC and east. The first part of the storm is definately snow but look at hour 51 on the NAM, that flow could be a concern for NYC and east and would cause the temperature rise near the coast. It would probably remain snow due to the 850 temps but it would kill your ratios and would be a slushy snow at best. We have to see what happens with the low and what way it trends, a slight shift south would benefit us all, it would remove that nasty flow for NYC and east and bring more QPF into my area. There is still plenty of time so I'm not worried yet. Again, look at hour 51.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html

Some of these SREF runs are really amplified, Alex, no doubt I will be here with you to see the 0z runs tonight!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html

Upton, NY forecasting area from NWS has most of the area 2-4 at this point. Will be interesting, sheesh getting a quick start. Saw some of those maps, yes they can bust but can also over perform. Hopefully this means good snow this year and not a mid winter warm up with all rain.

I have posted a preliminary snow map for this storm, but we will continue discussions in this thread!

18z NAM showing 6-7 inches for just north of NYC!

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121518&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

Frank, I see you are going on the warmer side of things. We will see what tonights runs bring.

Mets2695 wrote:Frank, I see you are going on the warmer side of things. We will see what tonights runs bring.

Yea, I want to see more consistency first. Timing is key for LI

Very interesting run but tonight's run will start to give us a better idea of how things Clipper shapes up

18z NAM showing 6-7 inches for just north of NYC!

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121518&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

mugs is that in inches? 7.5-10 inches around just north of NYC area?

jmanley32 wrote:mugs is that in inches? 7.5-10 inches around just north of NYC area?

It's in mm...need to convert...about 2-2.5"

Frank On this 1st map i see you got me right on the 2-4 line

oldtimer wrote:Frank  On this 1st map i see you got me right on the 2-4 line

2-3 inches sounds like a good bet paisan

My forecast here on LI from Weatherundeground
Tuesday
Cloudy with snow. High 33F. Winds NE at 10 to 15 mph. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

Frank, will you be hosting a live chat tonight or are you going to be busy with finals (I understand if you are busy, I remember very well having to study for finals and not being able to track the weather.  Heck in 2009, my finals were from December 14th to 18th and it wasn't until I got out of my last final on the 18th that I learned that a massive snowstorm would hit NYC and LI the next two days).  Good luck on your finals

Math23x7 wrote:Frank, will you be hosting a live chat tonight or are you going to be busy with finals (I understand if you are busy, I remember very well having to study for finals and not being able to track the weather.  Heck in 2009, my finals were from December 14th to 18th and it wasn't until I got out of my last final on the 18th that I learned that a massive snowstorm would hit NYC and LI the next two days).  Good luck on your finals

Thanks, I'm studying finance now. So no chat for me. But y'all can organize one. You don't need me. Lol

Tomorrow, there will be a strong vort located to our north which will help squash the heights over the east. What this means is it will help bring temps. down and set us up for cold temperatures prior to snowfall before the storm moves in Tuesday

00z NAM 500 mb vort map

Thats good news. Lets hope the south trend continues on the models tonight so NYC and LI stay all snow

Mt. Holly

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php

Taking it conservatively, however IMO not a bad decision at this point.

Mets2695 wrote:Thats good news. Lets hope the south trend continues on the models tonight so NYC and LI stay all snow

I hope so! Im sick of snow changing to rain on LI

agreed. If things still look amped tmw, they will up the totals. They may even do it tonight if the 0z runs come in amped

ARW goes nuts

hmmm looks cold too, even down to the coast.