Re: 12/17 Re-developing Clipper Storm

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 15, 2013 8:56 pm

12/17 Re-developing Clipper Storm - Page 3 F42

ARW goes nuts

by **aiannone** Sun Dec 15, 2013 8:58 pm

hmmm looks cold too, even down to the coast.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 15, 2013 9:17 pm

The 00z NAM has the low bombing out right on the benchmark. Heavy snow for the area

12/17 Re-developing Clipper Storm - Page 3 Nam-mslp-qpf6-ne_hr42

by Noreaster Sun Dec 15, 2013 9:18 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Some of these SREF runs are really amplified, Alex, no doubt I will be here with you to see the 0z runs tonight!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html

Its bc of the ARW members who always come in super amped

by Noreaster Sun Dec 15, 2013 9:21 pm

I like a general 2-5 inch snowfall for now...it has time to become 4-7+ if it works out perfectly..I'll be more specific 2mor when I have a lil more time to look closer

by Noreaster Sun Dec 15, 2013 9:23 pm

0z NAM looks nice!!

With that said, I still always autotoss the NAM and sill continue to do so until it's fixed.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 15, 2013 9:31 pm

The NAM has near a foot for MASS and cape cod! Solid 5-6 inches in and around NYC, noreaster.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=057

by **amugs** Sun Dec 15, 2013 9:37 pm

MY BIRTHDAY PRESENT FROM MOTHER NATURE!!!!!! WOOHOOO! - Hey the last time this happened was 1975
Yes it shows this clipper going to the benchmark frickin' exploding!!

KABOOOM!! Watch out for this one.

by Noreaster Sun Dec 15, 2013 9:37 pm

Clown maps are fun to look at but I cant stand them due to their bad algorithms.

The NAM would be a 5-8" snowfall for LI and 3-6 inland

by **aiannone** Sun Dec 15, 2013 9:43 pm

and this is with 10:1 ratios. Likely will be 13:1 at the coast!
12/17 Re-developing Clipper Storm - Page 3 Hires_11

by Noreaster Sun Dec 15, 2013 11:07 pm

RGEM tracks the storm across LI...decent snow NW of 95 ..along and S and E know the drill with a track like tjat.

0z gfs...less robust but 1-3/2-4

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sun Dec 15, 2013 11:10 pm

0z NAM was 4-6" while the GFS looks like 1-3" maybe 2-4", I am usually dubious of the NAM in this timeframe even though I love that 0z run I am still not going to be putting much stock into this solution as of yet, if more guidance comes to this side I'll be on board but as of now I'm liking a general 1-4" for the area as this has a high bust potential.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sun Dec 15, 2013 11:15 pm

Almost all members showing a decent plowable storm with a good amount going further than that. This is the latest 21z SREF run different then the last one I posted. The mean is low QPF only because timing is different, look at the individual members.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 16, 2013 1:07 am

The EURO is very underwhelming for the area compared to the other models. 1-2 inches of snow, and it is warm for Long Island. Talk about a part pooper.

by **algae888** Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:16 am

12z nam looks nice 2-4, 3-6''. but I don't trust these clipper systems. have a history of underperforming.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 16, 2013 2:03 pm

Yeah doesn't look too impressive to me, question is it tonight into tomorrow or tomorrow night into Wednesday? I saw someone say something about Wednesday night.

Frank can you please add me to the interactive map, still do not see myself there: Yonkers, NY 10705

by Dwsi91 Mon Dec 16, 2013 2:42 pm

Not sure what the interactive map is, but it sounds sweet.

Allentown, NJ 08501

by gigs68 Mon Dec 16, 2013 2:46 pm

What exactly does the interactive map do besides locating where a user lives?

by **aiannone** Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:24 pm

309 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 1/2 MILES OR LESS
FOR BRIEF PERIODS TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR...AND
BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BY MID MORNING. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE START OF THE AFTERNOON
RUSH HOUR.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
COMMUTES.

by **docstox12** Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:26 pm

Well, now, NWS has me under a winter weather advisory for 2 to 5 inches, heavier amounts to the N and W of the City, where I am.Got 8 inches in the books, we'll see if this produces or busts.Posters here say clippers have a high rate of busting out, and they are right.However, I've seen some blast off once they get off the Jersey Coast.

by **amugs** Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:43 pm

docstox12 wrote:Well, now, NWS has me under a winter weather advisory for 2 to 5 inches, heavier amounts to the N and W of the City, where I am.Got 8 inches in the books, we'll see if this produces or busts.Posters here say clippers have a high rate of busting out, and they are right.However, I've seen some blast off once they get off the Jersey Coast.

I just saw Uptons WWA for our area - and the 12Z shows the higher end for us up here Doc so we could actually finish December 2x + above our normal snowfall going into what looks to be a cold and active January. The only part that is going to stink tomorrow is the timing driving to work - hopefully it starts later but these clippers move fast - oh well - never will i complain about a good snowfall this early in the season. Hope for the worst 94"= of snow Very Happy

).

Mugs

by **docstox12** Mon Dec 16, 2013 3:51 pm

LOL, just 86 inches to go!

Better head back north to your buddy up in snow belt country to get that 94. 79 from '95-'96 is still the number to beat up in North Bergen county.

by **algae888** Mon Dec 16, 2013 5:02 pm

did anyone see what the 18z gfs does. it stalls the low off of the nj coast and continues the precip to about midnight. doesn't look right to me.

by **Dtone** Mon Dec 16, 2013 5:36 pm

Interesting the WWA doesn't include southern LI or southern Queens. It's rare to divide parts of NYC in a WWA or warning.
WWA in Astoria...but all clear in Jamaica.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 16, 2013 6:17 pm

Quick update:

Nothing has changed. General 1-3 inches, more possible from NYC on north, including NE NJ.

Timing still between 6-7 am tomorrow morning

Ciao for now

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Dec 16, 2013 6:23 pm

docstox12 wrote:LOL, just 86 inches to go!

Better head back north to your buddy up in snow belt country to get that 94. 79 from '95-'96 is still the number to beat up in North Bergen county.

Not sure about that Doc. 95/96 saw 76 inches in Central Park and 81 at LaGuardia. I remember Hillsdale NJ had 99 inches that year although I'm not sure if that's Bergen.

I had 112 inches that winter up in Orange County where you'll spend the winter of 2014/15.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Dec 16, 2013 6:27 pm

algae888 wrote:did anyone see what the 18z gfs does. it stalls the low off of the nj coast and continues the precip to about midnight. doesn't look right to me.

That would be a dream come true, but highly unlikely.

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