Re: Observations/ Final Discussion Thread 1/2 - 1/3, 2014 Snowstorm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 02, 2014 2:48 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Just woke up guys I think I posted in the wrong thread, how is it looking? I saw the NAM and it looks worse but I've heard good things about the GFS and EURO.

NAM is wrong. It keeps the trough positively tilted. It is already neutral. Every models (GFS, GGEM, EURO) and SREF, RGEM have upped amounts. You're getting .50-.60 qpf while NYC and NE NJ are getting .60-.70 with parts of Jersey shore and LI .75+

With ratios, you do the math.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Thu Jan 02, 2014 2:50 pm

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Jan 02, 2014 2:55 pm

I am at 21*, had the dusting this morning and a little freezing drizzle at 1:30. Getting very dark now...

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 02, 2014 2:59 pm

Off to work folks. See you all later tonight. Stay safe

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:18 pm

i didnt wanna clog this thread up figured it was only for models and current outside status

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:20 pm

RJB8525 wrote:i didnt wanna clog this thread up figured it was only for models and current outside status

Really model talk should be done. Precip is at the NJ door step. Continue discussion.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:23 pm

I'm confused, where should we be posting storm info? Here or the other one?

by **amugs** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:23 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Off to work folks. See you all later tonight. Stay safe

You too kid.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:24 pm

A fact that shouldn't be downplayed: COASTAL FLOOD WARNING just issued for good chuck of the Jersey Shore.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:27 pm

Continue all discussion here

by **amugs** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:28 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:A fact that shouldn't be downplayed: COASTAL FLOOD WARNING just issued for good chuck of the Jersey Shore.

Moderate coastal flooding which means tides 2-3'+ above mean high tide - jersey shore is going to take a good punch - possibly 2 high tides worth from what they ares saying - we shall see...

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:28 pm

Come on Upton the wind forecast for the City and Southern WC certainly ewarrents a blizzard warning, and 6-8? I doubt that very much more close to a foot near the coast.

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:29 pm

No change from upton since 10 am in the bulletin

by **RJB8525** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Come on Upton the wind forecast for the City and Southern WC certainly ewarrents a blizzard warning, and 6-8? I doubt that very much more close to a foot near the coast.

lol i was posting on upton till i just read yours..not a sinbgle change i'm hoping eventually

by **amugs** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:31 pm

Quietace wrote:Continue all discussion here

Ace after seeing the RGEM yesterday I had a feeling with the QPF and the ratio's 10+" for NNJ and possibly 2' for Eastern LI - may just happen. This puppy is going to overachieve IMO.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:33 pm

I agree mugs, major blizzard for all especially along coast, and the city is going to be in for a surprise come morning. My job better get some sense but right now they think its goijng to be nothing so 8:30 am as usual.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:35 pm

amugs wrote:
Quietace wrote:Continue all discussion here

Ace after seeing the RGEM yesterday I had a feeling with the QPF and the ratio's 10+" for NNJ and possibly 2' for Eastern LI - may just happen. This puppy is going to overachieve IMO.

We probably wont know that till the coastal forms. The primary is down to 1004, which is a good sign. Keep watching over next hour.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:35 pm

Upton is really pissing me off with this storm. Normally they are one of my fav weather offices but they are really screwing around here. Gray, Maine is the best. Taunton Mass is good too. Mt. Holly stinks.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:37 pm

Everyone wondering where the Blizzard warnings are here is my take.
Its simple. If they are going to extend the Warnings to more areas, they will do that after they see the coastal low transfer and see its position relative to our area. But i still believe we will see times we are in the criteria.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:38 pm

soulsing , yes me too, amounts too little and need to upgrade surrounding coastal areas maybe even slightly inland to blizzard warnings. Betcha they wait till the last second, watch they always do.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:39 pm

agreed ace, wait and see is all we can do now.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:39 pm

Inland areas would not see Blizzard warnings.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:43 pm

Wait and see what? lol. It is CLEAR winds will be strong enough in the 5 boroughs to produce at least 3 hours of the needed criteria for a blizzard warning. If I drive to Garden City on Long Island (25 min from where I sit now), I find it HARD to believe their conditions will be any different from mine at 2AM.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:48 pm

Same here I am 5 minuters north of the Bronx, is what I meant by inland (just barely) when city has a blizzard warning so do we usually. We will have to wait and see what upton does sing, we can't make the changes lol

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:50 pm

I was commenting on Mugs saying 2ft of snow for E LI. And if it was so clear that NYC would reach criteria, warnings would be up for the areas already, without question.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:50 pm

Man accuweather has a crazy night for me although I think their numbers are off. 14 degrees = 20:1 ratios 15:1 to be conservative, 26mph sustaine winds 58mph gusts, coastal flooding and 4-8 inches (this is where I think they are wrong).

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:51 pm

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING now issued for BRONX, and northern QUEENS (northeast winds, makes sense)...

ALSO, the LONG ISLAND EXPRESSWAY will be SHUT DOWN at MIDNIGHT tonight in NASSAU & SUFFOLK Counties.

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