Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

As I mentioned earlier, I agree. 2-4 inches. Still something to freshen up the pack. Make it look fresh again.

18z gfs gives us a 1-3" snowfall for sun nite- monday morn. .1 to.25 QPF. in line with sref. nam has less than .1 QPF

cmc is like nam. i do not have the euro

Looks like Bill Evans was totally right about this storm after all.

ooz nam was very interesting. forms a low over tenn. mon morning a moves it e/ ne off the delmerva coast tues, morning. brushes us with an inch or two but hits south jersey with2-4, 3-6 of snow. didn't see this on any other model.

algae888 wrote:ooz nam was very interesting. forms a low over tenn. mon morning  a moves it e/ ne  off the delmerva  coast tues, morning. brushes us with an inch or two but hits south jersey with2-4, 3-6 of snow. didn't see this on any other model.

Would like to see more agreement here. Models are still having issues with the energy and the development of it. Still time to work this out and im starting to favor a 2-4 inch system for South Jersey but im still not totally convinced yet.

ARW develops a coastal with a moderate storm. SREF has it too.

0Z GFS has a nice little 2-3 inch hit for NNJ, HV, NYC and LI Late Sunday night and early Monday. After all the ups and downs I'd take it.

With the way these clippers have over achieved this season, the path is favorable for a nice little blow up at the end for possibly a moderate hit. This part is wishcasting at this stage but we've certainly seen it happen enough times this winter to not rule it out.

0z GFS is more than 2-3" for LI. More like 4-5 with ratios. Really blows up precip at the coast.

Mets2695 wrote:0z GFS is more than 2-3" for LI. More like 4-5 with ratios. Really blows up precip at the coast.

Alex, I just saw the map, the surface temperatures are marginal for accumulating snow on LI.

Yea on the GFS. GFS is always warm because it can't recognize LI as a landmass. It will be plenty cold. 850s are very cold so snow growth will be excellent

0z RGEM!!!!

wow, that looks like a decent hit considering what I thought we were only going to get an inch or two.

Sunday night into Monday is beginning to show potential of a 3-6 inch type of snowfall, but I'll stay conservative for now and say 2-4 inches. Sorry I've been away all day. I have a wedding tomorrow (so won't be here again tomorrow) and been getting stuff then worked tonight.

What can we expect here in NYC area? From looks of RGEM, I am on the north part of the darker blue, 2-4? 3-6?  You know, we may be trending back to something bigger, not the blizzard idea but this has been happening alllll season, so i wouldnt be surprised to see another storm witha decent moderate snowfall.  Its like sheetrock here.  Fall on the snow and your really gonna hurt urself!

Frank what areas would that be

NYC Metro, but as always southern New England is in a good spot for best snows. We also have to see if surface temps become an issue. We need the vort to dig as much as possible and really collapse that surface line.

Man I hope this pans out , enjoy the wedding and don't drink to much

When I look at the 6Z runs this untrained eye sees a quick 2-4 inches of snow Sunday night into Monday morning for HV,NNJ, NYC and parts of LI although there will be temperature issues in LI. Apparently the pros not buying into it yet.

With the way this pattern has been I also still hold out hope this can blossom into a 4-6 event at the end. The path of the low is favorable for a late enhancement IMO.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:When I look at the 6Z runs this untrained eye sees a quick 2-4 inches of snow Sunday night into Monday morning for HV,NNJ, NYC and parts of LI although there will be temperature issues in LI. Apparently the pros not buying into it yet.

With the way this pattern has been I also still hold out hope this can blossom into a 4-6 event at the end. The path of the low is favorable for a late enhancement IMO.

I agree CP. The trend this year with these type of systems (its northern stream driven, and every system from the NS has been troublesome for models) is for poor handling of the precip shield, QPF and low strength and placement.
I do not think temperatures will be that much of a issue as the surface is already quite cold from the days prior (and we have snow covered ground), plus the upper levels are plenty cold to support snow that will cool the surface quicker since it will fall at night and surface temps should start at or just over freezing in places that would have P-type issues.

Local Mets are saying 3-4 inches for tomorrow into Monday mornings event. Just yesterday they said there would be no snow at all. Their even talking about the possible storm next week, when yesterday morning they said there would be no storms at all and others said just rain. I'll take the 3-4 it'll freshen up my snow pack. It looks so beautiful with the blanket of snow seems to make everything quiet and tranquil. It's one of the best Winters around here in a while. I'm just loving it !

snow man it actually does make things quieter if you live rurally. snow acts as a insulator and hence sound does not bounce off it as easily instead it absorbs it.  As a kid I always used to notice how much quieter it was when it was snowing, its also because all the animals go to sleep.  Snow is also the safest place to stay inside if you are stranded in like the mountains as it is warmer in a snow shelter than it is outside.  I hope we can up this to a 6 incher that'd be cool.  Unfortunently my snow is a block of ice and any snow on top of it is only going to keep it that way.  Its razor blade sharp when broken as its all ice from the FRZ we had and I can almost walk on top of it and im no small guy!  Maybe close to a foot on the ground underneath it.

Quietace wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:When I look at the 6Z runs this untrained eye sees a quick 2-4 inches of snow Sunday night into Monday morning for HV,NNJ, NYC and parts of LI although there will be temperature issues in LI. Apparently the pros not buying into it yet.

With the way this pattern has been I also still hold out hope this can blossom into a 4-6 event at the end. The path of the low is favorable for a late enhancement IMO.

I agree CP. The trend this year with these type of systems (its northern stream driven, and every system from the NS has been troublesome for models) is for poor handling of the precip shield, QPF and low strength and placement.
I do not think temperatures will be that much of a issue as the surface is already quite cold from the days prior (and we have snow covered ground), plus the upper levels are plenty cold to support snow that will cool the surface quicker since it will fall at night and surface temps should start at or just over freezing in places that would have P-type issues.

Ryan: I see what you mean about the upper levels, very cold Sunday night, any precip should cool the lower levels quickly for anyone that gets above freezing during the day.

Jman there are a few critters out and about namely squirrels and birds. I feed both and in the morning all you can here is the birds singing and woodpeckers pounding away on a dead tree limb out in the woods. At night I have two coyotes that come around looking for any seed that may be left from the daytime. What beautiful coats these animals have. Seen a few deer in the woods yesterday and it looked like a post card with the bare trees and the snow on the ground. I just love living here.

SNOW MAN wrote:Jman there are a few critters out and about namely squirrels and birds. I feed both and in the morning all you can here is the birds singing and woodpeckers pounding away on a dead tree limb out in the woods. At night I have two coyotes that come around looking for any seed that may be left from the daytime. What beautiful coats these animals have. Seen a few deer in the woods yesterday and it looked like a post card with the bare trees and the snow on the ground. I just love living here.

Snow Man, it got down to 3.2 degrees here this morning, what did you get down to?

jmanley32 wrote:snow man it actually does make things quieter if you live rurally. snow acts as a insulator and hence sound does not bounce off it as easily instead it absorbs it.  As a kid I always used to notice how much quieter it was when it was snowing, its also because all the animals go to sleep.  Snow is also the safest place to stay inside if you are stranded in like the mountains as it is warmer in a snow shelter than it is outside.  I hope we can up this to a 6 incher that'd be cool.  Unfortunently my snow is a block of ice and any snow on top of it is only going to keep it that way.  Its razor blade sharp when broken as its all ice from the FRZ we had and I can almost walk on top of it and im no small guy!  Maybe close to a foot on the ground underneath it.

Jman:

I was visiting a client in Yonkers yesterday on Mclean Avenue, I see what you mean about the streets, I had to drive over a mound of snow just to be able to park on a side street. I was lucky I got out before everything refroze again last night.

Central Jersey especially the coast does OK with the 12z NAM, it's only one run but potential for a moderate event is still there.