Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:59 pm

As you may already know we now have Bertha nearing the lesser antilles, current cone takes it OTS but we still need to watch as currently she is chugging mostly west and we all know the surprise Irene gave us. Disorganized but has convection now and winds of 50mph up from 45mph last night. When was the last time we went from invest to TS, I don't think we skip TD very often. Tack takes it up to a 60mph TS now, last night was only 45mph as it headed north. Intensity models show a strong Cat 1 but those are less than reliable.

by gigs68 Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:22 pm

glad your back jman- I enjoy the updates

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 05, 2014 5:01 pm

Well bye bye bertha, cut the gap between the US and Burmuda so everyone is safe, wasn't a huge storm anyways but we did have our second hurricane so we officially have more hurricane activity than last year. Interesting development on the 7-10 day Euro, A almost identical situation to Arthur on 12z, a storm develops off the southern carolinas meanders and then heads north strengthening and hitting nova scotia as a 998mb storm.

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 9 Euro_111

Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 9 Euro_111

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 05, 2014 5:01 pm

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 05, 2014 5:01 pm

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 05, 2014 5:02 pm

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 05, 2014 5:03 pm

by **Quietace** Tue Aug 05, 2014 5:09 pm

Only model that develops it. Everything else including its ensembles leave it weak and slides way offshore with the zonal flow and front moving in.

by **jmanley32** Tue Aug 05, 2014 5:11 pm

Ace isn't it a bit more to watch since its the Euro or does the Euro have a bias to do similar to the CMC? You are right it is the only one and it also is catching on first the Euro is usually right when it catchs on last.

by **Quietace** Tue Aug 05, 2014 5:19 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Ace isn't it a bit more to watch since its the Euro or does the Euro have a bias to do similar to the CMC? You are right it is the only one and it also is catching on first the Euro is usually right when it catchs on last.

No support from its own ensembles. Does not give it much credit 7+ days out. Sure watch it. Things could change, or it could just not form on the 0z run tonight and just be a broad low moving offshore due to how zonal the trough is in the east during the time period (probably most likely).

by Noreaster Wed Aug 06, 2014 1:26 am

Buhbye Bertha. The EPAC has been intense this year.

by **algae888** Wed Aug 06, 2014 6:49 am

2013 hurricane season we had 15 TD, 14 TS and TWO hurricanes (ingrid and humberto) but no major hurricanes (cat 3 or higher) first time that's happened since 1994. this year we have had 3TD and TWO hurricanes so far. by mid august of 2013 we had 5 TS but no hurricanes, the 2 we had formed in september. you have to go back to 1913-1914 for the last time we had consecutive seasons with out a major hurricane. in fact it only happened 4 times since 1850...1913-1914, 1857-58, 1867-68, and 1861-65 which went 5 years with out one.

by **jmanley32** Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:28 pm

Well thr Euro ensembles are in support of developing something aff carolinas in the next week or less. GFS and CMC also hint at something, although I do see the zonal flow so we will see what happens.

by **algae888** Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:35 pm

here's an interesting note from TWC. it has been 8 years nine months and one week or 3200 days since a hurricane has made landfall in florida. is that correct?

by **algae888** Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:37 pm

and for all you hurricane lovers Hawaii is going to get hit by not one but two hurricane in the next week or so. Shocked

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:51 am

Yeah I saw that , but one is going to likely miss to the north and the other has weakened last I heard, have not been on much in the past 36 hrs, sick baby. Could be right about FL, its been a long time. One reason why floridians are so weary of each tropical season.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 08, 2014 2:27 pm

CMC has quite a storm in the 5 day 4-5 inches of rain and at least advisory level winds, but is this at all tropical or hybrid looking? I am not sure what to think of it but it does originate from same spot as Arthur did/ I forget who said no other models showed this but now they are. Is it of any concern other than rain next week wed-thurs or could it be a tropical system?

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Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 9 Cmc_110

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by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 08, 2014 2:28 pm

url=https://servimg.com/view/18656045/118] Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0 - Page 9 Cmc_210

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by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 08, 2014 2:45 pm

Looks like long range GEFS also has a system coming off Africa and developing, well JB did say season go get active after August 18th, maybe before then if this system next week has any development to it. Question being that the NHC has new guidelines since sandy, even if the storm was not named if it had the similar charecteristics to a tropical system, rain, wind surge wouldnt it still warrent TS watches warnings hurricane watches warnings etc. Thats how I understood the new rules.

by **algae888** Fri Aug 08, 2014 4:24 pm

well jman after looking at models and weather outlets it looks increasingly likely that we will get a big storm next week. I do not think it will be a tropical system with a name, looks more like a noreaster as trough digs a becomes negative. plus time frame is tues into Wednesday so forms a moves by pretty quickly. here is nws take on it...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST
WITH DAY TIME SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING BOTH DAYS AS TEMPS REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT
THE SFC...SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TRANSPORTING LOW LVL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WEST AND
NORTH OF NYC BY TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
INTENSIFYING UPPER LVL TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH A WIDE
BAND OF STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A LOW LVL
FRONT. THIS SHOWS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. IF AND WHERE A LOW PRES SYS DEVELOPS
ALONG THIS FRONT...WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN AND ALSO LOW LVL
HELICITY. DEPENDING ON THE INSTABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
ROTATING TSTMS TO THE NORTH OF AND ALONG THE PATH OF THE LOW.

IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...STAY TUNED FOR AN UPCOMING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
good that i'll be in LA next week. Very Happy

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 08, 2014 4:29 pm

Heh, wow finally we agree on something, yeah its a bit early for a noreaster, IMO it may have SOME tropical aspects to it but looks much more like a noreaster type system. I remember frank m,entioning that we may have to watch for hubrid like storms like this around this time and down the road. Have a good time in LA and we will be here updating if anything happens.

by **algae888** Fri Aug 08, 2014 4:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Heh, wow finally we agree on something, yeah its a bit early for a noreaster, IMO it may have SOME tropical aspects to it but looks much more like a noreaster type system. I remember frank m,entioning that we may have to watch for hubrid like storms like this around this time and down the road. Have a good time in LA and we will be here updating if anything happens.

thanks jman and I think this storm will have some tropical characteristics to it. it will form over very warm waters and have high pwats and more insability with warmer temps and stronger sun angle to work with than in a fall/winter system. so yeah like a hybrid. still wish it misses us lol although we need the rain.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 08, 2014 6:25 pm

I would like to hear from Frank surprised he hasn't mentioned anything on it thats only 4 days away.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Aug 08, 2014 6:44 pm

I would like to see a couple more model runs, but my initial thoughts is this will be another underwhelming storm system. The main low pressure system is actually tracking to our north and there is some energy being transferred off our coast. How strong that secondary gets will be key, but I don't think it gets strong at all.

We'll see what happens. I do think we see rain early next week but not much as of now.

by **Math23x7** Mon Aug 11, 2014 5:23 pm

I haven't really been following the Atlantic tropics lately but what is your feeling on how Invest 94L (currently in the Eastern Atlantic) will shape out? Some ensemble runs have it approaching the Caribbean Islands next week but I am also aware of the dry air surrounding the system.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2014/Invest-94L?map=model

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 11, 2014 11:02 pm

Well NHC has it at only 20% in the 5 day but if it can pull through the hostile area (and it may be able to as its trucking at 15-20mph) it has a better chance and tonight intensity models have it reaching near cat 3 strength on a few runs. But it is way to far out to be seen and intensity models are always all over the place and not reliable at all. Best thing to do is to watch it and what the NHC thinks.

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 17, 2014 1:49 pm

New wave about halfway between lesser Antilles and Africa is at 30% in the 5 day. I think this one bears more watching. Models already picking up on it. Euro and cmc are bullish and take it towards Burmuda however many of the gefs cmc and euro ensembles make this a southeast or east coast hit. A few even direct impact cat 2 on the area on ensembles. To have models and ensembles on board to some extent to me means this is one to watch. But then again nothing has proven itself much yet. Just be prepared next week will be interesting.

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