Re: Tropics Talk Thread 2014 1.0

[jmanley32]

So Frank what are your thoughts on 92L and 93L? Mainly 92L as CMC still shows it turning around and shooting up the east coast. But later than next week now.

has a 40% chance in 5 day which is up from yesterday.

[sroc4]

So Frank what are your thoughts on 92L and 93L?  Mainly 92L as CMC still shows it turning around and shooting up the east coast.  But later than next week now.

has a 40% chance in 5 day which is up from yesterday.

J man I am only slightly intrigued by this threat.  I hope by now you have come to the conclusion that the CMC has an extreme bias to over do EVERY piece of energy involving tropical system threats.  This particular threat you are referring to does have a small amt of merit though as it seems the Euro and GFS are trying to organize some energy off the SE coast with a well positioned HP to the north.   The problem is this.  The CMC has this thing spun up pretty tight already as is crosses the Fla Panhandle by 00z Friday which until proven otherwise is wrong.  So why does the CMC bring it up the coast whereas the other models do not?    
CMC 00z Friday
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If this system were to come off Fla that strong the strength of the system would actually aid in pumping the Atlantic ridge raising heights out ahead of it much quicker which would aid in steering it N instead of shearing it out to the NE.  As it slowly drifts north it eventually gets captured by a trough(as seen by the CMC only) moving across the great Lakes and actually retrogrades it slightly before the trough sweeps through and it eventually turns it NE.  

CMC 00z Sunday
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The Euro and GFS however have a disorganized broad area of LP coming off the Fla Panhandle.  As a result the energy has a tough time consolidating because the heights out ahead of the system never really increase to the N like seen above on the CMC and the wind flow remains to the NE shearing the system apart until the trough moves off the East coast and away she goes.  

00zFriday
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00zSunday
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We ae going to need the heights to increase out ahead of the system as it pushes off the SE coast sooner than is currently modeled on the Euro and GFS. I personally doubt that happens, but as you can see the Euro is trying to do this, but it does so to late.  

Monday 00z
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The one thing that is consistent on all the models; however, is a nice HP sitting over the NE US/SE Canada on Friday by 00z (see surface maps above both Euro and CMC).  This is one key for development of the system as it exits the SE coast.  However, an important difference I see as to why the CMC is so much stronger with the system then the Euro/GFS by 00z Friday as it comes off the Fla coast can be seen at the 250-300MB level in the atmosphere.  There is a much stronger Jet streak that is centered further S and W on the CMC when compared to the Euro.  This creates strong divergence aloft.  When there is air racing away in the upper levels to the N and E of a system like this (we can also see this with potent Nor Easters in the winter) that creates a void in the atmosphere.  This promotes rising air to the SW of the Jet Streak to replace the void in the upper levels of the atmosphere created by the streak; thus enhancing surface LP development.  

00z Friday CMC 250mb
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00z Friday Euro 300mb
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I am not overly optimistic that this pans out to anything more than something to watch, but we shall see.

[jmanley32]

sroc, you took way to much time out of your day to do all that : ) But thanks. I have been preoccupied with my grandfather slowly passing. I noted that NHC has dropped all interest in anything in the atlantic and that to me tells me that of course CMC is on crack and Euro, although interesting that it shows a tiny bit is probably wrong too. Yes I am very aware of CMC but it is a model and no model can be completely discounted. But as for now with NHC not highlighting anything, even the wave that was to be on CMC, is gone into a broad area of LP. Maybe in 5 days time it may get better conditions but shear is high in gulf right now. I thnak you if you put my grandpa in your prayers but there is no hope, he has not eaten or had any kind of fluids in 5 days per his request and is on morphine, and my parents are up there in VT with him 12 hrs and my dads brother the other 12 hrs. They are just waiting on the day he passes. Which is making this all the more difficult on me and I am sure then even more so. So if you do not see me on much this is why plus I have a very hectic school semester and working hard on baby proofing.

[sroc4]

sroc, you took way to much time out of your day to do all that : ) But thanks.  I have been preoccupied with my grandfather slowly passing.  I noted that NHC has dropped all interest in anything in the atlantic and that to me tells me that of course CMC is on crack and Euro, although interesting that it shows a tiny bit is probably wrong too.  Yes I am very aware of CMC but it is a model and no model can be completely discounted.  But as for now with NHC not highlighting anything, even the wave that was to be on CMC, is gone into a broad area of LP.  Maybe in 5 days time it may get better conditions but shear is high in gulf right now.  I thnak you if you put my grandpa in your prayers but there is no hope, he has not eaten or had any kind of fluids in 5 days per his request and is on morphine, and my parents are up there in VT with him 12 hrs and my dads brother the other 12 hrs.  They are just waiting on the day he passes.  Which is making this all the more difficult on me and I am sure then even more so.  So if you do not see me on much this is why plus I have a very hectic school semester and working hard on baby proofing.

Ahh man I'm so sorry to hear about your grandfather jMan. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family. Unfortunately I have lost all my grandparents so I know how you feel right now bud. Stay busy to occupy your time and know he is headed to a better place.

[jmanley32]

sroc, he passed last night around 10pm, I know this should be on off topic but I figured it could be an exception. May not be updating the tropics as much, not that there is anything to update lol. I am ok last night was hard but he is in peace with his wife now, whom he was devastated to lose in 2002.

[Frank_Wx]

Hey doc...that was a great explanation

[jmanley32]

So this is interesting the GFS and GEN agreeing on exact placing and time frame just not intensity (CMC as we know lol) on a LP just off shore at 102 hrs. Thats not to far away, thoughts? Is there a storm forcasted in 5 day?

[jmanley32]

GEM 102 hrs.



I realize its getting to time of year where this may not be tropical bot more a noreaster deal, but wasn't sure where I should put it.

[algae888]

with the cape verde season just about over (trade winds have slowed substantially) have to look elsewhere for tropical development. in my first year actively following tropics, the thing I learned the most is discard the CMC.

[jmanley32]

Well, discarding the cmc is not totally smart, BUT it does usually show things are too intense and sometimes phantom. But it is true to be skeptical of it until others come on board if its the only one. I would watch caribbean or off east coast for october, there may be a hybrid or noreaster type development, GFS has shown a few things but has then dropped them through first week of October. I wonder how the models will do this fall and winter.

[jmanley32]

Not much to talk about here yawn! Although I would say keep this open till the season end, just in case. One 10% area that is no threat of development. All GFS runs have lost that strong storm headed into carribean although 12z shows a storm developing in same spot sandy did at the fantasy hour (384), but in October thats a area to watch for threat to east coast. I will keep posted if anything should arise, but models overall have been terrible this season with tropical formation.

[jmanley32]

Although there has been virtually nothing to talk about in the tropics during a normally busy time of year the GFS for a while now has been showing a development coming north from the deep caribbean and moving in a similar fashion to Sandy (just north, nothing to say anything like Sandy would happen) at the very end of the run. However it keeps getting pushed back in time so unless it starts to move up in time and after 240 hrs starts to show on other models i'm going to see it as a phantom month long GFS storm lol. Noted the Euro EPS 50 stamp ensembles nothing showing in caribbean up to day 15.

[jmanley32]

ok 12z did bring the system in caribbean up quite a few hours. And a direct northerly path, and a similar time to sandy, I wonder if this storm does develop what the pattern will be by the second half of October? Anyone have any ideas? Will it favor a push OTS or a closer to coast move. I always say October can be a interesting month for tropics and noreasters. Now starts around 264 (yes still in lala land but not 384 which is when it started at the 06z but its the only thing for me to talk about right now lol):



So if this holds we will be moving into the 10 day period in about one or two days, lets see of CMC and Euro catch on. If not then we (for now) can assume its another GFS joke. But for now I am going to watch it.

[jmanley32]

[jmanley32]

[jmanley32]

[jmanley32]

Well this is interesting, might this be what the Euro and models were trying to show phasing? I didn't even check NHC so I guess there are two things to watch, although they say nothing will come of this.



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small area of low pressure located just west of Bermuda is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level
winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development
during the next few days while this system moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[jmanley32]

I guess we can keep this one alive until the end of october although I will be posting mostly in the long range and october obs. sections. It appears we may have a tropical development according to most models in the deep tropics in the 5-7 day, this looks to be or catalyst for the possible big storm on the east coast around 16-17th.

[jmanley32]

I guess to keep things less confusing I will keep tropics over here until the season is actually over because u never know. New area NHC is watching NE of Leeward Islands. Has some spin to it, right now they are saying 10/20% chance, Euro develops it and almost all 50 ensembles develop it and are pretty consistent on movement over the next 3-5 days then it depends of the front. May have to watch this to become a coastal with the front if they meetup at the right time.

[jmanley32]

I guess to keep things less confusing I will keep tropics over here until the season is actually over because u never know. New area NHC is watching NE of Leeward Islands. Has some spin to it, right now they are saying 10/20% chance, Euro develops it and almost all 50 ensembles develop it and are pretty consistent on movement over the next 3-5 days then it depends of the front. May have to watch this to become a coastal with the front if they meetup at the right time.

[jmanley32]

Not much to worry about with 99L, 50% chance of development and models take it OTS. However lookie what the Euro brough up which the CMC and GFS had first or similar, this leads me to believe its a bit more true and yes within truncation, whatever that means : )

[jmanley32]

Notating two area this morning (tropics heating up in a unusual area) and a huge system behiind these two.

[jmanley32]

The red likely to be Fay, but only a threat to burmuda, its the other one the US may need to be concerned about as the Euro has a 119mph cat 3 in bahamas at 240, starts development around 96 or less. GFS also showing development but more of a northerly turn.

[jmanley32]

And lastly the train of 3 that JB is seeing and I too am seeing, the two marked and I think the huge system way off to east will be marked in next few days too. Its really got good convection and is impressive. IMO if this keeps up and we get something out of the deep caribbean we could get 4 named storms in Octobers last 3 weeks, that would be incredible.

[Frank_Wx]

Hmmmm

[jmanley32]

Hmmmm....what? Frank lol.

[amugs]

Jman,

Looking at the hmm - interpretation - things are getting interesting - peeking his interest - teh set up at Scott made mention and I looked the MJO Phase octane map and the atmospheric set up down the road - late next week and beyond looks to be interesting but then again it all can change. We shall see.

Mugs

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