Re: July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread

by **jmanley32** Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:45 pm

I just reposted to you, I am paying attention, I missed your post because the thread went onto a new page sorry bout that. 10/4 on what your explaining.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:48 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I just reposted to you, I am paying attention, I missed your post because the thread went onto a new page sorry bout that. 10/4 on what your explaining.

Oh yea, I hate when that happens.

There never was a chance for severe weather, in my opinion. I've been pretty firm on that.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:55 pm

Okay, NWS still feels things could stay unstable enough overnight to allow for severe weather but they were wrong DEAD wrong this morning so I myself am not sure but I totally see what you are saying. ( See the discussion to see what I am talking about, there are alot of IF'S in there though so I guess thats them covering their behinds when nothing comes in the area.
Man if we had a line or convection going on now it would be a bad situation.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jul 27, 2014 5:40 pm

Dang, levels are crazy right now in southern westchester, SPC a super high 5, Cape 1804, shear 43, helecity 122, lcl 1295. Lower levels just to the south, the stabilization Frank was talking about? But nothing to work with like algae and frank said so no storms on map. It would be one crazy day if we had that low right here.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:32 pm

Well those values certainly did change! Looks like it will be a non-event except for maybe far western parts of NJ.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:01 pm

Storms look impressive in south-central and southeast PA, but they're rapidly losing their zest as they chug east

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_njrc.gif

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:13 pm

Low 80's as high's and low to mid 60's as lows this week. Most importantly, only 40-50% humidity. It's going to feel really nice.

by **jmanley32** Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:27 pm

Is it possible they refire moving into the area? Seems per HRRR things are a bit more unstable up this way then down there where they are now. Also there was mention of more storms tomorrow, especially in CT and lower hudson valley, any validity to this?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:46 pm

HRRR at 2am

July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 9 2urniud

by **jmanley32** Mon Jul 28, 2014 8:54 am

Yeah unless I slept through it nada happened, so I will succumb to the fact that I and the NWS were wrong. Now if you look at my recent post in the tropics section I believe I know I am right about the logisitics of tropical development and have a good idea that Bertha will develop (Not Christobal, he is next).

by **amugs** Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:43 am

.34" of rain nothing severe here but central jersey got smacked - Freehold area over 1" of rain and power outages.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jul 28, 2014 10:25 am

Really, well like algae said so close yet so far. Area still has a tiny chance for this afternoon mainly NYC and east. 2% tornaod and 5% wind.

by **Quietace** Mon Jul 28, 2014 10:57 am

amugs wrote:.34" of rain nothing severe here but central jersey got smacked - Freehold area over 1" of rain and power outages.

Had about a inch last night and a lot of ctg

by **jmanley32** Mon Jul 28, 2014 12:32 pm

A fairly substantial tornado touched town in Revere, MA at 9:34am, the tornado warning wasn't issued until 9:44am, we still do not have sophisticated tornado warning system, has to be one of the hardest to warn. They are investigating now but by looks of pics and damage of flipped cars and blown apart buildings has to be at least a F1.

by **amugs** Mon Jul 28, 2014 7:22 pm

Just picked up another .12" in a heavy down pour for about 20 minutes - do not think my rain gauge got it all cause it was teeming at one point.

Temp dropped 14* from 6Pm until now - 67* cool and ready for a bonfire and some s'mores!!

by **jmanley32** Mon Jul 28, 2014 7:37 pm

the tornado was confirmed EF2 in Revere, MA I have family close to there but they were fine. Just had very gusty winds come through and just wisked the humid and hot air away so nice out now!

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Jul 28, 2014 7:43 pm

amugs wrote:Just picked up another .12" in a heavy down pour for about 20 minutes - do not think my rain gauge got it all cause it was teeming at one point.

Temp dropped 14* from 6Pm until now - 67* cool and ready for a bonfire and some s'mores!!

I'll be right over! bounce

by **amugs** Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:35 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:Just picked up another .12" in a heavy down pour for about 20 minutes - do not think my rain gauge got it all cause it was teeming at one point.

Temp dropped 14* from 6Pm until now - 67* cool and ready for a bonfire and some s'mores!!

I'll be right over!

Anytime Janet! And some homemade Bailey's to boot! Yeeeee haaawwww. king

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:34 am

So nice outside Smile

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Jul 29, 2014 5:20 am

Feels great here 62 low humidity Wink

by **mako460** Tue Jul 29, 2014 7:57 am

Feels like September, I love this weather. If we dont see 90 again this summer I will be very happy.

by **algae888** Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:27 am

WOW!!! what a nice feel this morning. the first thing I thought of when I went outside was winters not to far away. pretty soon we will have these fronts regularly, each one bringing colder and colder air and then boom! low pressure forms at just the right time and we get our first snow!! Very Happy

BTW although its been fun watching jman get disappointed this summer,lol you can have summer time weather. tracking tornadoes in MASS or hurricanes off the African coast just doesn't do it for me. the difference with winter weather when compare to summer is that in winter we get direct hits with big storms but in summer its rare that we get a direct hit with anything except a few 30 min t/storms. I never seen a tornado and besides sandy never saw a direct hit with an eye of a hurricane ( at least I don't remember). btw sandy hit south jersey and was part of a bigger system so I do not consider sandy as a direct hit by a hurricane.

by **amugs** Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:52 am

WOW!! Friggin 59.9* last night woo hoooo!!
I love this Sept like weather feels awesome out there no humidity well low humidity and bright sunny skies. My electric bill is half of what it was last year - ha ha ha! But just read an article that pse&g will be passing on the costs from Sandy about 1 billion will be impacting us soon - we can never get ahead.

Algae first snow - Labor Day at this pace!! Very Happy

by **Quietace** Tue Jul 29, 2014 5:30 pm

Probably going to be a quiet this weekend down here with the probable rain

by **Quietace** Tue Jul 29, 2014 5:35 pm

Surprised how much more robust the Euro is than the GFS for this weekends rain. The GFS just keeps it unsettled for a much longer period on the EC.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jul 29, 2014 10:26 pm

Hey algae, never said got disappointed, glad your having fun with that thought (sarchasm, lol). I track all weather it fascinates me whether it hits or not. Yeah your right winter is much more exciting in that we get hit much more often but then again this past winter I feel you all were more disappointed than I am about the summer. I got disappointed too about winters storms that didnt happen. Thinking this winter might be a doozy. And yes agreed all the weather today is so nice.

by **Quietace** Wed Jul 30, 2014 11:52 am

Euro still robust for this weekend.
July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 9 Ecmwf_10

GEM is similar
July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 9 Cmc_to10

GFS'

July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread - Page 9 Gfs_to10

While total QPF is similar, the way the GEM/Euro handle the convection/ timing is much different than the GFS. Have to see who caves to who.

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