Re: July 2014 Observations / Discussions Thread

[algae888]

From upton for sunday afternoon. THE REGION COULD END UP BEING IN THE MIDDLE OF FAVORABLE REGIONS. meaning more favorable conditions will be to Our North and to our south. There's still a lot of uncertainty but there probably be a few strong to severe storms but nothing widespread. tornadoes seem very unlikely don't hold your breath for that. I guess it'll come down to being in the wrong place at the wrong time or for you J man being in the right place at the right time.lol

[amugs]

HRRR says a good line of storms for tomorrow evening - if we get storms in the morning than the atmosphere will most likely not produce these and destabilize the severe threat like our boy wonder Ace and illustrious leader Frank have pointed out.

[jmanley32]

Yeah and HRRR for tomorrow morning also looks stout too (below). We could get both morning and night IF the sun can come out during the day. The NWS discussion stated that northern NJ and Lower Hudson valley may see a prolonged period of sun which of course would destabilize things and allow these storms to fire. We will see.

[algae888]

this mornings forecast is a dud!... nws interpretation of model data way off. according to their forecast we should be in some strong to severe t/storms right now. 70% likely pop for this morning. cloudy and very calm, 71* hum. 67%. radar very quiet.

[algae888]

just read accu wx forecast for this morning and theirs is much more accurate. they downplayed the event for this morning unlike NWS. accu wx says a couple of showers with a t/storm in spots and no mention of rotation for this morning or night.

[Quietace]

Having a nice little rain storm from a small cell. Haha

[jmanley32]

Yeah wow algae Iam going to agree with ya on that one! So looks like we may get the daytimr heating so out begiest chance is this afternoon and evening but they pulled back from 30% to 15% for wind on SPC so I may be more inclined to believe this to be a non-event for the area anyways. HRRR for this afternoon has alot of storms headed for the area. One small one right over southern westchester but it had this morning wrong so I wouldnt be surprised if it was wrong later too.

[jmanley32]

Hey dunzoo, at the open house you should call them out on this mornings forecast lol, no don't I'm JK. I was going to go but other plans came up, plus its a really long drive. Judging from frecasts looks like this afternoon and night could be more widespread, if we get the destabilization.

[algae888]

any strong/severe storms should not happen until very late tonight 10pm to 6am. that's when dynamics would be at there peak. however cant rule out an isolated one this afternoon if sun comes out.

[amugs]

Looks like the lp from the gl will bring the goods or try to tonight like algae said, well done. Hrrr that I posted last night might be right but my inclination now after looking over things is that it will happen a tad later okay by me I have a bbcue today - really humid out there though . These are hard to call but watching Jeff Smith last night he said that after 8 pm would be the time we can see t- storms and some severe cells.

Had a shower this morning and sun trying to break through.

[jmanley32]

Yep seeing the sun, and most recent HRRR confirms the 10pm or later thing, if that plays out looks beastly especially for flooding. So we will be able to keep instability cape, shear and helicity that late at night?

[jmanley32]

Interesting that HRRR has the highest instability for us Algae, I wonder what is crating that small area of 2000 or so j/kg.

[jmanley32]

[Quietace]

Suns out here. All cleared out from this mornings rain

[Frank_Wx]

Yawn.

[jmanley32]

LOL Frank, your too funny but yeah sure is a yawn right now, putridly humid though.

[jmanley32]

Getting very steamy out and lots of sun I think tonight will be interesting.
Currently Cape around NYC area 1376, helicity 50, effective shear 39, and into yellow instability on this page: BTW thanks frank great page.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

 I noticed that when the main part of storms come into area they are in a horizontal like moving from south to north, this is odd, is that going to spark more violent storms/tornados?  Tornados look unlikely but SPC still has us under a 5% chance.  Cape appears to stay near 1500-2000 almost all night with a bullseye right over southern westchester.  BTW this is all per the HRRR, wasn't right this morning so could be wrong for tonight but this morning didn't really seem plausible anyways.

[algae888]

I'm very surprised with such a hot steamy sticky an unstable atmosphere how quiet the radar is the nearest precip is in eastern Ohio and extreme Western PA we're not getting any thunderstorms till after midnight at the earliest

[jmanley32]

Yes algae looks to be between 1 and 5am. First tornado for the Upton area, I am not sure its confirmed yet but CT news says likely it will be a EF0 in Wolcott CT.  Weak but goes to show the area is primed, and not even at its peak yet.  Oddest thing was is apparently there was nada on the radar! Cape keeps going up at 1600 now SPC 2, shear 40 and helicity 62.  Helicity still low but its been going up slowly.  Here is a pic I got from a CT buddies FB page.

[Frank_Wx]

The atmosphere as we speak is beginning to stabilize, slowly but surely. Greatest severe weather parameters are situated near the main area of low pressure. 





As you can see, that is expected to pass through NW PA then make a sharp turn to the northeast. 





It may not look like it now, but once that vort takes the turn north and east, the areas of convection circulating around it also take the turn north. Areas north of NYC are in line to see some pretty good storms tonight. 





Bulk shear is diminishing as well. Now down to 40KT in NYC, 35kt just west. 


I guess one thing to look for is possible cells developing ahead of the vort, as the HRRR suggest, but with severe weather parameters diminishing for our area I wouldn't expect those storms to come of the severe variety.

[jmanley32]

I am confused Frank it appears on the page that you sent me that the n umbers are going up over here in the southern westchester area. I thought it was destabilizing, but you point to the opposite. Am I reading the maps wrong?

[Frank_Wx]

I am confused Frank it appears on the page that you sent me that the n umbers are going up over here in the southern westchester area.  I thought it was destabilizing, but you point to the opposite.  Am I reading the maps wrong?

No, you were correct. This is a timing issue though. Even though parameters are favorable now, the space between where the vort is currently located and our area is too wide. By the time it gets near us, not only will it be to our northwest, but the sun will be down by then.

[jmanley32]

Ok for instance I clicked on the map at 40.82 and 78.94 lat/long.  These were the numbers which are up again. SPC 3 (which I read about today and 3 is high) Cape 1810, Shear 42, helicity 87 and LCL 1174.  All those went up since 40 min ago.  Maybe I am missing something here or maybe your talking about a different area? HRRR shows the CAPE staying the same all night a small stream of it coming up from the south.

[jmanley32]

Ahh gotcha, sorry missed your post before i posted the readings. So there is no chance now for much of anything in this area overnight?

[Frank_Wx]

Jman, you are not paying attention to what I am saying. 

Yes, severe weather parameters are favorable NOW, but like I just said, it doesn't matter because the main low pressure is still too far away. By the time it gets here, all those parameters you just pointed out will look much different.

[jmanley32]

I just reposted to you, I am paying attention, I missed your post because the thread went onto a new page sorry bout that. 10/4 on what your explaining.

[Frank_Wx]

I just reposted to you, I am paying attention, I missed your post because the thread went onto a new page sorry bout that.  10/4 on what your explaining.

 
Oh yea, I hate when that happens. 

There never was a chance for severe weather, in my opinion. I've been pretty firm on that.

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