September 2014 Observations and Discussion

Coastal ?



Looks like a ELI special from the Euro last night - something to keep an eye on (?) - on shore flow too. CMC called this last week but we know how bad it is in the long range. See what  the other models show toady for this.

Coastal - SREF's say take a closer look - something might be brewing here.

I am terrible at reading these maps and things. When would this be for?

sabamfa wrote:I am terrible at reading these maps and things. When would this be for?

Early Thursday morning, but the latest 12z GFS still has this storm well off the coast bringing just some light showers to coastal NJ and LI



And with a trough entering the Pacific Northwest in this time period, I doubt there is enough to get this storm along the coast like some of the other guidance is suggesting. But we'll have to keep a close look out for now.

Can everyone see that image by the way?

Is this a big storm if it were to stay close to land, this must just popped up today I didn't see it last night.  Looks inte3nse on SREF.  High winds and rain?  Or just a rain storm IF it were to stay close? And Frank how many times have we been fooled by GFS this year, I am starting to take it like CMC brother, isnt much left to trust this season.  Is this tropical in nature, hybrid or just a LP? mugs I forget where you get that ensemble of SREF from?

I am interested in the possible caribbean development showing up towards end of run, kinda same place as Sandy was, and starts to turn north. maybe this the possible storm you mentioened Frank for October? Euro also has a development in gulf which eventually treks up this way as a LP and develops a bit off shore. Hoping for some good hybrids or noreasters, we need some excitement (not asking for anything catastrophic) but man its been boring since like March.

Jman just a glancing blow as the GFS is showing but you never know - there is a kink the jet in midwest that is a kicker to keep this off the coast and just produce what the GFS. If that changes then the LP moves west and we have something to track. The link is on ewall if you like here it is:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html
CMC has been showing Sandy Duece for a few days now on those runs - Euro had it to at the 240 hour end but that is like the girl of your dreams jman a fantasy

Well it only showed it in the caribbean who knows where it would go from there, I wouldnt wish a Sandy on us thats for sure. Nothing in weather is a fantasy, anything can happen and inevitably will someday.

Is the setup similar in terms of whats going on up north during that week, that GFS shows that system in Caribbean? Well I will keep watch on the next few days, obviously that is something much more predictable that 384 hrs lol. Hence why i didnt even post graphic.

Mugs, you know it is going to go east and skunk us again...no way we're getting rain....

jmanley32 wrote:Is this a big storm if it were to stay close to land, this must just popped up today I didn't see it last night.  Looks inte3nse on SREF.  High winds and rain?  Or just a rain storm IF it were to stay close? And Frank how many times have we been fooled by GFS this year, I am starting to take it like CMC brother, isnt much left to trust this season.  Is this tropical in nature, hybrid or just a LP? mugs I forget where you get that ensemble of SREF from?

It is a very unorganized area of low pressure. Not tropical in nature. It has become apparent by today's model runs it will likely be a glancing blow consisting of a few showers. And that may be just for Long Island.

amugs, I am not sure what you are seeing in the models that would even remotely resemble a sandy part 2, was that a joke? Which Euro run showed something, you can't write anything off this time of year and BTW I have the girls of my dreams my wife and daughter : )

The positive NAO will prevent the area from coming up the coast with any kind of moxy for later this week. Too progressive.  Just like the system that spun up and passed us by to the east yesterday into today. Fish storm.
Just close enough to keep an eye on.

sroc4 wrote:The positive NAO will prevent the area from coming up the coast with any kind of moxy for later this week. Too progressive.  Just like the system that spun up and passed us by to the east yesterday into today. Fish storm.
Just close enough to keep an eye on.

Couldn't agree more.

And while most of us agree the pattern is too progressive, the NAM and GFS come in with a soaker of 1-2+ inches of rain.

I guess we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if this is just a myth or a trend.

00z NAM

00z GFS

No high winds would be associated with this if it were to come to fruition, likely just a 1-2 inch rainstorm, which we could certainly use.

If this does become a trend, I wonder how it will impact Jeter's final regular season home game on Thursday night (i.e. rain out)

Math23x7 wrote:If this does become a trend, I wonder how it will impact Jeter's final regular season home game on Thursday night (i.e. rain out)

Good point. If this storm does come up along the coast, the heaviest rain would fall on Thursday morning and may clear out by Thursday evening.

00z GGEM joins the party...



Man, what a change in just 12 hours. Will wait until 12z runs tomorrow to consider this a threat.

Ahh gotta love being up with the start of a sinus infection. Anyways yeah I had a feeling this would affect us. And although I agree to wait till 12 tomorrow this may not be a councidence. The farmers almanac called for a hurricane to move into midatlantic region with heavy rain and wind this week. Although unlikely to develop into anything huge we already have a drastic change in the precip. Who's to say this may not actually wrap up good and give us a good buffeting. Heh I know that wind remark was for me frank lol. I will be very interested to see how this plays out. Will check euro in morning. Wont take much of a west jog to really ramp up the rain either.

Would love to see a good 2 to 3 inch soaker.Bone dry everywhere.

I have a question for anyone on the board. Will this possible rain event be out of our area Thursday morning or will it last into Thursday night ? I have an appointment at 8:00am Friday morning for my car at the dealer and I need nice dry roads to get it there. Thanks. It was 42* with clear skies and calm winds when I left home for work at 3:00am.

Frank_Wx wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning Mugs. The Doc usually gives me 2 shots in two different spots on my shoulder. Unfortunately this is the fourth set of shots I've had since April. They only seem to last 3-4 weeks at most. He(Doc) really wants me to have surgery asap, but I have to put the required hours in at my job to go back out and have it done. Otherwise it's termination for me. I will try to post pictures of the bears if I can figure out how to do so. I'm not a real techie kind of person. I just know the very basics. In my area their saying it will go down into the low 40's tonight. I'll keep you posted.

Sorry to hear. They don't offer disability?

We get our disability through the state of NJ. which gives us 6 months at 60% of your pay. Our company then gives us 18 months of long term disability at 60% of your pay. So you would get a total of 2 years. But all of that has changed since the company hired a new lawyer. The new policy is you get 6 months of state disability and then after that they terminate you (which NJ state law says they can do) and then they give you long term disability for another 18 months, but they also terminate your medical benefits so you have no insurance to cover your medical bills. God for bid your fighting a disease like cancer, how would you pay the astronomical medical bills. When our union asked him (the lawyer) why would they do something like this, his answer was because we can. The sad part is after you recover from whatever illness you've had, your still out of a job. We're trying to see if their willing to come up with another option, but so far their sticking to their guns.

Frank_Wx wrote:And while most of us agree the pattern is too progressive, the NAM and GFS come in with a soaker of 1-2+ inches of rain.

I guess we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if this is just a myth or a trend.

So I had a chance to really look more closely at this set up this morning, and it does appear that thee is more than meets the eye here with there being potential for this to overcome a pos NAO.  Some of us may see a dcent rainfall (SNJ, immediate coastline, and LI) I don't have time this morning to write up my thoughts in depth.  HOWEVER; keep March 3rd 2014 in mind.  If you recall a system to our south was progged to move up the coast and give us a decent snow storm, but the strong arctic HP suppressed the sh-- out of it.  A strong banana ridge is trying to buil;d over the top of the country as a potent trough comes onshore over the west coast leading to a strong surface HP building into the NE as this system heads up the coast.  Of course this set up is different that last March as the HP is not a cold source HP but the building HP may still lead to suppression domination right as this baby passes the Delmarva leading to convergence in the mid nd upper levels on the north side of the system causing a sharp cutoff to the moisture.  (March 3rd 2014 how I hate you)  There are a few key pieces of upper level energy that will play a key and of course timing of all said pieces is key.  I will try to most some maps and more in depth after 12z if I have time.

SNOW MAN wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning Mugs. The Doc usually gives me 2 shots in two different spots on my shoulder. Unfortunately this is the fourth set of shots I've had since April. They only seem to last 3-4 weeks at most. He(Doc) really wants me to have surgery asap, but I have to put the required hours in at my job to go back out and have it done. Otherwise it's termination for me. I will try to post pictures of the bears if I can figure out how to do so. I'm not a real techie kind of person. I just know the very basics. In my area their saying it will go down into the low 40's tonight. I'll keep you posted.

Sorry to hear. They don't offer disability?

 
We get our disability through the state of NJ. which gives us 6 months at 60% of your pay. Our company then gives us 18 months of long term disability at 60% of your pay. So you would get a total of 2 years. But all of that has changed since the company hired a new lawyer. The new policy is you get 6 months of state disability and then after that they terminate you (which NJ state law says they can do) and then they give you long term disability for another 18 months, but they also terminate your medical benefits so you have no insurance to cover your medical bills. God for bid your fighting a disease like cancer, how would you pay the astronomical medical bills. When our union asked him (the lawyer) why would they do something like this, his answer was because we can. The sad part is after you recover from whatever illness you've had, your still out of a job. We're trying to see if their willing to come up with another option, but so far their sticking to their guns.

Snowy,

That just sucks! This is why there is (and I do not want to start a fight here or get political) a great divide occurring between the management/owners and workers in this country - I can give you a 100 references for such in my job, friends and family. The old because we canto you is as old as dirt on this planet. We work our butts off and then when in time of need what happens - see you later - we are a number in their eyes and I have had this conversation (though much more heated) with bosses before. Hang in there and I hope and pray for the best for you.

Scott,

I totally concur with your last posting about the +NAO - if it slides east which the models are saying so that will allow the coastal to move further North and somewhat west since the kicker in the jet (Midwest) is progged to weaken. If these pieces of the puzzle happen then the models from last night GGEM, NAM, GFS will be spot on - reminiscent of the Jan 3 and 22nd snowstorms ehh?? 6Z euro has the storm more north and west as well but drier than the other models just mentioned.

Okay 41.2* this morning - house was at 66* - thanks god my wife earned a job teaching again (went back) or else she would have the heat on 70*!!

HAPPY FALL everyone and this board will start to come alive with this possible storm - finally something to track and discuss weather wise. If it serves then the CMC pulled another coup - had this last wed for this week - a squirrel will get a nut every now and then as well.

Janet your right, we get drizzle -.12" of rain while Ace,Skins and Tom (Isotherm) get nailed (2" and winds 30+ IMO) - you watch.