*BLOG: Halloween Forecast

Please enjoy, read, and learn from the blog. Any questions, please ask.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/10/halloween-forecast-november-outlook.html

Frank

Great write up Frank. As of now, myself and several other students agree with what you just said. We are currently forecasting light rain showers transitioning to snow showers here with minor accumulations, but possibly up to a few inches up in the Green Mountains.

Mets2695 wrote:Great write up Frank. As of now, myself and several other students agree with what you just said. We are currently forecasting light rain showers transitioning to snow showers here with minor accumulations, but possibly up to a few inches up in the Green Mountains.

Yup, I can definitely see that up by you.

Alex, your 1 post away from 1,000. Say something funny.

"IT'S RAININ SIDEWAYS!" Thanks Ollie!

0z GFS coming in less amped and a later phase. Ridge was not as impressive as 12Z. Mostly a miss for southern areas, other than light rain showers but Northern New England and Northern NY still get a noticeable event.

Haha, nice.

GFS coming in looking a little weaker than previous ones. Pretty much follows my forecast as well as yours. At hour 135 it looks like Vermont is getting snow.

It's going to get cold...that is for sure.

Yea, later phase and much weaker, though it looks like the theme is for me to get my first inch most likely this weekend. (correct me if I'm wrong). But, there is still plenty of time to watch this. And it sure is. We are forecasting highs in the low-mid 30's up here during the second part of next weekend.

Bigger story is the cold. GFS has Saturday MAX temps in the low 40's at the coast to low 30's in NNE. On Sunday Max temps are in the mid 40's at the coast and upper 20's to around 30 in NNE

GFS SAYS COLD! 2pm MAX Temps for Saturday!

ooz Euro goes nut with the snowfall, up in VT a bit more than a few inches and shows a inch all the way down to the coast.  Do I buy it not yet because of what sroc said about being too early to know where placement of precip will be. GFS did weaken but Euro still has wind gusts along the coast as high as 55+ kts. on the other hand the 06z completely loses entire area of much of anything. Still a lot to work out over the week IMO.

I'm not convinced we are done seeing changes in the modeling. I still think the first flakes may fly in CP with this system. I am going to give it another 24hrs before commenting further.

To early with a phase system just have. To wait and see IMO tues night 00z and Wed 6 z   And 12 z runs will help clear things up I hope.

Flakes could fly in CP, but I think the bulk of the action will remain north of us. The northern stream is attached to a PV lobe and is having a difficult time riding the ridge. We'll see if things change.

Oh yea, forgot to mention the winds. Once they switch out of the northwest, it's going to get pretty breezy. We'll be in between two pressure gradients until the phase occurs. Probably 25-35 mph with gusts near 50 mph

Yeah ai been mentioning that glad to know I wasn't blowing smoke, Euro had winds gusting even higher than 50 like 55 maybe plus.  Mostly strongest offshore.  Well if we get any kind of snow that can accumulate on trees that will be very interesting.  Although I am taking what you say for right now that the bulk stays north but I remember 2011, it was kind a surprise what happened.

Apparently according to JB (have not checked yet) The UKMET shows a phase bringing a storm for us and he feels that the Euro and GFS are coming on board. I think he is wishcasting at this point because things are still dicy like has been said not until tomorrow into Wednesday will thingsd start to come together.

NWS Burlington Disco........

THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. EXPECTING ANY RAIN EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY COULD SEE THE SEASONS FIRST SNOWFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. GFS MODEL A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. THE ECMWF MODEL IS SUGGESTING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PRODUCING SNOW OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

12z GFS making things interesting for us....ruh roh

Oh my...



If this solution is correct, throw my blog out the window. The GFS dug the northern stream vort instead of meandering it around the Great Lakes. Gives us a Miller-B type of solution

Snow map

Not the very accurate WeatherBell maps

12z GFS Snowmap

Latest GFS model takes the weekend storm and turns it into a coastal system. Big changes from 00z run last night. The northern vort gets further south and east which allows for a transfer/phase off the coast.