*BLOG: Halloween Forecast

Phase only 6 hours later, last run this morning was more if I am correct.

I just keep remembering the westward trends lets go

What is DJF? So phase is coming up in time mugs thats good, I bet we see a drastic change once that pacific enrgy comes in. My guess is a closer storm with same intensity (wishcasting lol) but may not be far fetched. The days are creeping along, we will know soon enough.

hah skins yep, thats what I am hoping for. May have to stock up on some non perisables later this week if it looks to come in for snow, as we know the trees won't bode well with even a few inches of snow. I love to go to the grocery store the day before a storm and laugh at all the histerical people (yeah im cynical like that, nah not really).

JMAN....DJF= December, January, February

Omg duh lol

I'm finally away from the coast all the way up in NERN VT about 50miles south of Canada, i better not miss out on an early season storm lol!

Rayno's take o nthe system, alex feels your area for now is the spot, says Euro is outlier? I do not agree with that.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/cold-snow-for-halloween-weeke/90462062001?channel=top_story

EURO Ensembles are a hit

Is that blue line the 32 degree line meaning snow all way down shore?

That would be a hit for most areas. Interior New England and close to the coast.

I will tkae that solution thank u very much, frank on wxbell is this the control run? Ensembles are 50 little maps which collection is it there?

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO looks like a late phase, but it has the ridge axis further west which I like. We still get some rain to maybe snow showers. EURO went with the GFS idea of digging the northern stream too far south.

Yup but the surface Low still travels pretty close to the BM. Actually just S and E of the BM.
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 In addition to the Ridge axis a tad more west, the other thing I would like to see happen to this Euro run over the next 24-48hrs is to get rid of the area of diffluence earlier seen just above the GL by 12z Sat circled in black.  If that area could break down earlier it would cause the arctic air to race to our storm bombing it out quicker, and more importantly cause the blocking in the Atlantic to buckle the stream causing the LP center to come back N and West earlier and we would be in some serious business.  Instead it persist until about 6z-12z Sunday.  By then its too late the center of LP has already gained too much latitude and passes too far east before really bombing out for major impacts.  
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Here is 18z Sunday.  When that area of diffluence breaks down it allows the blocking to build in over the top too late turning the LP back into Maine indicated by the Red arrow coming off the Carolina coast.  We need that area of diffluence breaks down earlier.  If it does we would get a track more like the blue arrow coming off the Carolina coast, and whoa baby watch out if that happens.  
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Frank_Wx wrote:EURO Ensembles are a hit

Giggidy

H5 of the EURO Ens look really really really good. There was actually a triple phase. The southern branch, the northern vort, and a piece of the PV

Frank_Wx wrote:H5 of the EURO Ens look really really really good. There was actually a triple phase. The southern branch, the northern vort, and a piece of the PV

Giggidy giggidy!! The ensembles have been trending better

Ind. members are impressive

Giggity ditto x3!

I was looking at the low placement map for the ensembles some bring it much closer than the actual run : ) Still alot of divergence but all within the same general area which is great.

NWS UPTON:

DEEP UPPER TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
FRIDAY...AND STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPIN UP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP THAT IMPACTS THE REGION AND THE PTYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
EAST/WEST THAT LOW TRACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS IS
MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER THE
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE WEST THAN
IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. 12Z CMC IS FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED
TO BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GFS
MEMBERS...BUT NOT ALL. THE ECMWF TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARM
AIR TO SURGE ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP PRECIP RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS
ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. WHAT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW FAR
WEST BANDING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. AS A RESULT...
SATURDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP AS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THAN
SATURDAY...BUT THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

They upping the anty on this now, sooner than I thought.

So guys and Gals for my area here cnj I know Ace can answer this but what am I looking at here most likely a rain event correct or can it snow and winds look to be terrible

skinsfan1177 wrote:So guys and Gals for my area here cnj I know Ace can answer this but what am I looking at here most likely a rain event correct or can it snow and winds look to be terrible

Still too early for those specifics

OMG - that ridge in teh west moved a bit west - Frank yuo pointe dthi soout after teh 12Z rubns and like I have been honking we want that ridge over I - DA - HO!! Look at the mean - MOther of Pearls this si exciting - imagine this was Jan or Feb - I do not know if I would be able to .............

I know its the long range nam but it looks nice....
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141028+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141028+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141028+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

amugs wrote:OMG - that ridge in teh west moved a bit west - Frank yuo pointe dthi soout after teh 12Z rubns and like I have been honking we want that ridge over I - DA - HO!! Look at the mean - MOther of Pearls this si exciting - imagine this was Jan or Feb - I do not know if I would be able to .............

Oh man if only this were Jan Feb

Scot I have been saying this all along but we MAY see something like this then as well - I know putting the positive vibes out to Mother Nature!!