*BLOG: Halloween Forecast

amugs wrote:OMG - that ridge in teh west moved a bit west - Frank yuo pointe dthi soout after teh 12Z rubns and like I have been honking we want that ridge over I - DA - HO!! Look at the mean - MOther of Pearls this si exciting - imagine this was Jan or Feb - I do not know if I would be able to .............

Oh man if only this were Jan Feb

Scot I have been saying this all along but we MAY see something like this then as well - I know putting the positive vibes out to Mother Nature!!

Would this not be a snow event? What diff does it make if it was JF? Is it too close to give us snows? GFS coming in now.

Those low placements have aaaaalOt THAT ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE US A BIG BLOW TO THE HEAD RAIN OR SNOW THE WIND WILL BE SCREAMING.

Wow the GFS is strong but the southern is too progressive but it seemed to be a bit slower. I'll trust in mugs that the 18z sucks lol

Holy crap, if this came west its dumping 4-5 inches of rain over the ocean, wholly snowlly! Waiting on that west shift and slower phase. It looks like it improved slightly.

WOW the NAM looks to be almost a perfect phase headed that way. progressing at almost the same speed right for each other.

Frank did you ever find the snow totals ensembles on wxbell, the stamp maps not the graph, I do not understand those graphs?

jmanley32 wrote:Frank did you ever find the snow totals ensembles on wxbell, the stamp maps not the graph, I do not understand those graphs?

Do you mean this?

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_city.php

These charts are the only things I know if when it comes to ensembles. They do not have snow maps for ensembles.

No those are the graphs, yeah they really do they added them last year. You weren't a member. I even have old copies its like the euro stamps and i believe its a euro ensemble snow map. But maybe they only put it out in real winter time? If I ever find it I will let you know, but I know I remember a block of maps with all different senarios of snow totals.

Latest model verifications show EURO and UKMET leading the pack. May have to utilize UKMET some more, it is very good under 96 hours

Latest model verifications show EURO and UKMET leading the pack. May have to utilize UKMET some more, it is very good under 96 hours

JB is raving about the UKMET where is it located, I dont see it on wxbell.

Hope it stays all rain. Don't need any heavy wet snow with wind while the trees still have plenty leaves on them. Disaster in the making.

I know Hector, its looking that way possibly.

Could we be looking at the third separate significant snow event in a four year span in the October 29 - November 6 time period?

These are usually a 1 in 10 year event for northern parts of our area, for south and east more like 1 in 30 year events. It would be odd to say the least to get another so close to the last two.

Im concerned about the wind here along the coast.

skins I think even if it is rain the wind will still lead to some power outages if this storm really cranks. Of course if we add snow over a inch or two it's a recipe for disaster.

Yeah no doubt jman we got alot rain here last week ground is saturated

I just have a bad feeling, (at least up here) it will at least be partially snow with some if not a lot of accumulation) I could be dead wrong but there have been signs that its trending in that direction. NWS now has snow in my local forecast mixed with rain for Sat. Before was a chance of a shower.

Jman isnt their chance for snow to the coast here.

Where is point pleasant?

Cnj northern ocean county where all the weather actions been these last years lol

skinsfan1177 wrote:Jman isnt their chance for snow to the coast here.

Way to early for details like P-Type

Well I guess our basic area is in play, of course the closer to the coast you are the warmer it is, of course if this storm deepens and makes its own cold air like in 2011 then that will not be a issue.

Ace is right, lets not make too many speculations at this time.